How Will Five Substitutions Per Game Impact 2022/23 FPL Season?

The Premier League voted to change from 3 substitutions to 5 per team from the upcoming Premier League 22/23 campaign, similar to Project Restart and recent Champions League games. The rule change means that teams in the Premier League will now be able to name 9 substitutes on the bench rather than 7 and make up to 5 substitutions during the game rather than 3. These 5 subs will have to be made in only 3 ‘instances’ of substitutions or at halftime.

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Initial instinct on looking at the league increasing the number of subs from 3 to 5 made me feel like we might see more rotation and reduced minutes for popular FPL assets. However, on the evidence of ‘Project Restart’ where the same sub rules were instituted, most FPL assets ended up getting rotated lesser but had a higher chance of being subbed off early.

‘Project Restart’

It’s hard to extrapolate data from a unique, COVID-hit scenario where the season had to be halted and then resumed after a delay. It was an unprecedented event that involved its own unique challenges which are unlikely to be replicated into a normal, full season of the Premier League. Nonetheless, given that that period of time, called ‘Project Restart’ was the only previous evidence of these rules in the Premier League, let’s talk a quick look at how clubs fared during that time frame.

What effect did five subs have on goals scored and conceded?

With the caveat of different fixtures, managers and an idiosyncratic scenario, let’s briefly discuss how teams did.

11 of the 20 teams had a better ‘minutes per clean sheet’ during Project Restart than before it which is barely above average.

However, from traditional ‘Top 6’ teams, 5 teams had a better ‘minutes per clean sheet’ with only Liverpool faring worse than before.

In terms of goals scored, 9 teams did better for ‘minutes per goal scored’ than before. Again, not much of a difference.

Again, Top 6 teams fared relatively better with 4 teams of 6 improving their ‘minutes per goal scored’ compared to before.

In general, this limited data seems to suggest the expectation that having a chance to name 9 substitutes and make 5 substitutions suits stronger teams who are able to utilise their quality squad to greater effect. They tended to score more goals and concede fewer goals compared to a time of 3 subs.

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How did teams use their quota of 5 substitutes?

Data from ‘Project Restart’ shows that teams didn’t use their full quota of subs quite as many times as expected. From 9 games per team, the team using their five subs the most times was Brighton, doing so on 8 occasions. This is in line with a good, versatile squad and a manager who trusts his entire squad and shows tactical flexibility.

Relegation-threated Norwich and Bournemouth both used their full quota of five subs 6-times each, joint third highest.

Liverpool used their full five subs 7 times, Manchester United and Arsenal 5 times, Manchester City surprisingly only 4 times while Chelea did so a measly 2 times. Spurs under Mourinho used their five subs on 0 occasions.

Number of times five subs used in PL during project restart

Takeaway from Team substitution data

Fear of five substitutions affecting rotation and player starts was exaggerated compared what transpired in practice. Teams tended to still make subs as needed. Only teams with quality depth would dig deeper into their bench options and even they didn’t do so with the kind of regularity we’d have expected.

How did individual players fare?

Individual player output was a mixed bag with no clear pattern of output emerging. There were also several confounding factors on this data including the effect of no fans in stadiums, games in close proximity and different motivation for teams and players.

A telling takeaway though was that having five subs did not lead to more rotation and hence fewer starts for key players. On the contrary, it seemed like they had a higher likelihood of starting games. Taking title-chasing Manchester City as an example, City would start their ‘strongest’ team and if they had a reasonable lead by the hour mark, they were able to sub off players around the 65th to 75th minute including even centre backs like Laporte. Players were thus able to get their ‘rest’ by seeing reduced minutes per start rather than making fewer starts.

This is a pattern we might expect for players in the Premier League with the new rule change. It is reasonable to expect ‘key’ players to make the same or even more starts compared to before but the likelihood of seeing reduced minutes from a second-half substitution are higher ie lower minutes per start. Compared to defenders, attacking midfielders and wingers seem like the positions where we might see the most number of substitutions so consideration of expected minutes (xMins) for these offensive players in the new reality will be key in evaluating data and adjusting models.

[kofi]

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How Will Five Substitutions Per Game Impact 2022/23 FPL Season?