FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW1 Deadline

After a long summer, the new FPL season is back. We are just two days away from kick-off. This is the time when managers are hustling to finalize their FPL teams. There are unlimited transfers available and we are all looking for that one or two differential gems. These players could be the X-factor in the opening weeks of the season. In this blog, we take a look at the top 6 differentials ahead of FPL GW1.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Before going further, do vote in this week’s FPL GW1 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter). The metrics had a 30/38 record last season. Stay tuned for the GW1 Captaincy metric to see who tops it.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

FPL GW1 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

James Maddison vs Brentford (H), £8.0, TSB: 5.6%

FPL GW1 Differentials 2022/23 season ~ James Maddison

Maddison had his best season by some margin last time out. He registered 12 goals and 11 assists last season, getting 181 FPL points in the process. The Leicester man was also the fifth highest points scorer among midfielders in FPL last season.

FPL GW1- Maddison — Maddison’s attacking returns overview over the past 4 seasons

As we can see from the graphic, Maddison had a significantly improved season last time out. His minutes per attacking return improved by 23.5 % as compared to the 2020-21 season. Because Leicester has no European football this season, the Englishman could do even better than last year.

Four of Leicester’s first seven fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. This coupled with the fact that Maddison had an incredible pre-season (1 G 3 A) makes Maddison an enterprising option for managers.

James Maddison – Key Stats

Top for goal involvements (23) last season among players under £8.0 last season
Has scored in each of his three starts against Brentford in all competitions. Netted in both PL meetings last season.

Further Read: 2022/23 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams

Callum Wilson vs Nottingham Forest (H), £7.5, TSB: 3.0%

FPL GW1 Differentials 2022/23 season ~ Callum Wilson

Callum Wilson has been one of the unluckiest players for FPL managers over the years. He starts going on a run, managers try to pick him up, and then he gets injured. This time managers should try to get ahead of the curve.

In the 2021-22 season, Wilson registered 75 points in FPL, scoring 8 goals and getting 14 bonus points in the process. Indeed, that was the eighth best in the league for bonus points per 90. Bruno Guimaraes, is the only other non-defender to have a better tally in the league than his compatriot.

FPL GW1- Wilson — Wilson’s performances in FPL GW1 to GW5 last 4 seasons

Another important thing to look at regarding Wilson is the way he starts a new season. In the last 4 seasons combined, Wilson has registered 19 attacking returns (11 G 8 A) between GW 1 to GW 5, in 18 appearances.

Newcastle have good fixtures to start the season. Seven of their first ten games have an FDR rating of 2. This combined with Wilson’s tendency to start seasons well means that he is one of the best options as the third forward for managers.

Callum Wilson- Numbers Game

Top for SIB, xG, BC, Goals per 90 among Newcastle players last season
Second best in the league for goals per 90, after Mahrez among players priced £8.0 or below

Optimize your squad, check for player stats, and heatmaps on **FFFix**, signup with a 15% exclusive discount!

Leandro Trossard vs Manchester United (A), £6.5, TSB: 2.2%

FPL GW1 Differentials 2022/23 season ~ Leandro Trossard

From the outset, it might seem as though Trossard against Manchester United might not work as a pick. However, if we let the thought of Manchester United being a big club out for a while, we will get a different picture.

Trossard has been one of the most consistent performers for Brighton. Last season, he amassed 8 goals and 4 assists, with 141 FPL points. He was the thirteenth-highest scorer among midfielders. The Belgian has been continuously improving over the years.

Trossard stats in the last three seasons

As we can see, almost every stat of Trossard has improved year on year. As a result of which it is safe to assume that he is going to get better this season as well. Brighton take on a Manchester United side in FPL GW1 who are in a bit of a mess.

Manchester United conceded 57 goals last season, by far and away the worst defensive record for teams in the top half of the table. Three of those goals were contributed by Leandro Trossard. Indeed, the Brighton man registered a goal and 2 assists the last time these two teams met.

Leandro Trossard- Crunching Numbers

Top for points, goals, xG, GI, and SIB among Brighton players last season
Sixth best for points among midfielders/ forwards priced under £7.5 or under

Fun Fact

Leandro Trossard once hit the post three times in a single match against Manchester United, back in 2020. He has experienced both the extremes against the Red Devils.

Further Read: Best Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£6.0 -£7.5 Million) | 22/23 Season

Leon Bailey vs Bournemouth(A), £5.0, TSB: 9.8%

FPL GW1 Differentials 2022/23 season ~ Leon Bailey

Every season we have one or two players who have mind-boggling pre-seasons. Remember Benrahma last year? Most of us will! Leon Bailey falls into this category going to FPL GW1 of the 2022-23 season. He has been involved in 5 goals (3G 1A) in the pre-season matches.

FPL GW1-Bailey — Aston Villa’s first three fixtures

Bailey is one of the few good options in the £5.0 million price bracket. Given the fact that he has the potential to be explosive, it makes him a really exciting option. Aston Villa arguably has the best opening three fixtures among all in the league. Therefore, if ever we can take a punt, now is the time.

Although Leon Bailey didn’t play a lot last season, when he played he was getting himself into positions to cause problems. He had the second most number of shots per 90 among Villa players, only Coutinho had more. Furthermore, only Ings and Watkins had more shots in the box per 90 than the Jamaican.

Now that we can add confidence on top of the already existing goal threat, Bailey might well turn out to be the Benrahama or a Michu of the 2022-23 FPL season.

Further Read: FPL GW 1 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall vs Brentford (H), £5.0, TSB: 1.0%

FPL GW1 Differentials 2022/23 season ~ Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

Another player who has had a phenomenal pre-season is Kieran Dewsbury-Hall of Leicester. The youngster was involved in more goals than any other Leicester player during pre-season. He registered 2 goals and 3 assists in all.

This pre-season form hasn’t exactly come out of the blue. The Englishman registered 1 goal and 2 assists last season in the league. Whilst that might not sound encouraging, we have to keep in mind that he costs only £5.0.

No other Leicester player played more minutes than Dewsbury-Hall since GW22 last season. Only Maddison made more key passes per 90 than the KDH in that time, among the Foxes. KDH’s xA of 2.45 was bettered only Barnes and Maddison in that time.

Dewsbury-Hall vs Tielemens comparison **~FFHUB**

If we look at the above graphic, we can see that Dewsbury-Hall has outperformed someone like a Youri Tielemens in key areas. The one that stands out is the touches in the box. Therefore there is a potential to get attacking returns from the youngster and his pre-season form suggests that it might not be far away.

Further Read: 2022/23 Pre-Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams

FPL GW1 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Rodrigo vs Wolves (H), £6.0, TSB: 0.5%

FPL GW1 Ultra Differential pick 2022/23 season ~ Rodrigo

The first ultra-differential pick of the season is Rodrigo from Leeds. The Spaniard is another one of those assets who has had a blistering pre-season. He scored 5 goals in all for Leeds. Only Gabriel Jesus & Nketiah have scored more in pre-season across the league.

Rodrigo got more bonus points per 90 than any other Leeds player last season, including Raphinha. He was also the third best for big chances per 90 among his compatriots.

FPL GW1- Rodrigo — Leeds’ players stats from last season since GW24~**FFHUB**

Here is where things are going to get interesting. Since GW24 last season, largely under the reign of Marsch, no player scored more goals(4) and had more big chances(5) for Leeds. The midfielder was an integral part of Leeds staying up last season.

Jesse Marsch has preferred Rodrigo as a number 10 largely and it is a role that suits. With a fantastic pre-season on top of concluding the previous campaign on fire, the Spaniard might have a breakthrough year in FPL.

Leeds are one of those with a tremendous run of games to start off the season. Six of their first seven games have an FDR rating of 2. In fact, they are the only team to have as many games with FDR rating as 2 in the opening weeks of the season.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season

Link to all our 2022/23 Pre Season articles including transfer tracker of all new signings, all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Link to all our FPL Forwards, FPL Midfielders, FPL Defenders, and FPL Goalkeepers series of blogs including the best 4.0 million defenders, and 4.5 Million midfielders.

Link to all Our FPL Team Analysis Series for all 20 PL Teams from our team correspondents

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

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K K Anirudh

A Chelsea Blue by blood but a football fanatic who looks at the beauty of the sport. A keen observer of the game, a person who mixes statistics along with the performances to obtain proper insights to analyze.

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FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW 1 Deadline

FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW 1 Deadline

FPL GW1 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)