FPL Player in Focus: Erling Haaland

It’s not every season that a rising talent like Erling Haaland joins the Premier League. It’s an exciting prospect, both from an entertainment and FPL perspective. We know the heights Sergio Aguero reached but in recent seasons, the City attack has lacked a focal point. Those worries are now gone, with the signings of two true strikers in Haaland and Alvarez. Given City’s elite attack and the extraordinary talent Haaland possesses, it’s easy to fantasize about the levels he could reach. In FPL, it can often be tempting to go with the shiny new toy. Newly transferred players are often very popular, sometimes to the downfall of those who back them. While there are some aspects of both City’s and Haaland’s game that are indisputable, there are plenty of questions about whether we should select Haaland to start the FPL season. In this article, I’ll look at all things Haaland, trying to bring together as much relevant information as possible to help us make that decision.

*Unless otherwise stated, stats are sourced from fbref.com

This is a four-part series on Man City from our Man City correspondent (@4lex_mcfc, Do follow him), read the first and second here, Man City Defenders Analysis & Ratings for 2022/23 FPL Season, Man City Midfielders/Forwards Analysis for 2022/23 FPL Season

Erling Haaland Career Stats

Molde (17-19)

Haaland started his professional career in 2017 at Norwegian club Molde, in the Eliteserien. In his first season, at the age of 16, he only scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 14 appearances (3 starts, 0.69 G+A/90). In his second season he broke through, scoring 12 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances (17 starts, 0.90 G+A/90). This performance earned him a move to RB Salzburg in January of 2019.

RB Salzburg (19-20)

He joined the team near the end of their title-winning season, scoring 1 goal in his 2 appearances. The following season (19-20), Haaland gained international acclaim. He scored 16 goals in 14 league appearances and, more notably, scored 8 goals in the group stage of the Champions League. In the first half of this season at Salzburg, he performed at an astounding 1.93 G+A/90. After only a year at Salzburg, this astounding performance earned Haaland a transfer to Borussia Dortmund.

Dortmund (20-22)

In his first half-season at Dortmund, Haaland continued his goal-scoring ways. In the 19-20 season, he scored 13 goals and 2 assists in 15 Bundesliga appearances (11 starts, 1.27 G+A/90), along with 2 goals in 2 UCL R16 games vs PSG. In 20-21, Haaland scored 27 goals and 6 assists in 28 Bundesliga appearances (27 starts, 1.23 G+A/90). In the UCL, he scored 10 goals and 2 assists in Dortmund’s 8 games (1.54 G+A/90). Last season, his final at Dortmund, he scored 22 goals and 8 assists in 24 Bundesliga appearances (21 starts, 1.41 G+A/90). In the UCL, he scored 3 goals in 3 appearances.

UCL

In his 19 UCL appearances (16 starts), Haaland has 23 goals and 3 assists (1.60 G+A/game). Not only has Haaland performed exceptionally well at the domestic level, but he has performed to an even higher level on the biggest stage.

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Overview – The Best of the Best

Erling Haaland has a short yet illustrious career. He has appeared in a total of 151 professional club games, with 115 starts. In that time, he has 125 goals and 30 assists—averaging 1.06 Goals/90 and 1.31 G+A/90. In the past five Premier League seasons, only nine performances have surpassed 0.99 G+A/90:

1.30 (Salah, 17-18)
1.24 (Aguero, 17-18)
1.18 (Aguero, 19-20)
1.17 (Salah, 21-22)
1.14 (Bruno, 19-20)
1.08 (Kane, 20-21)
1.06 (De Bruyne, 19-20)
1.06 (Aguero, 18-19)
1.01 (Sterling, 17-18)

Haaland is a young player, but he has performed to an extraordinary level for his whole career. The Premier League is a different beast, so it may take some time for him to adapt. While we can say this about most players, Haaland isn’t most players. If there was anyone that I’d back to adapt quickly, it’d be him. He has proven that he is adaptable, performing very well at each of his former clubs straight from the start. He has also proven to perform on the biggest stages, at times looking even better against stronger competition. It’s easy to overestimate a new signing, but Haaland truly has the potential to be something the Premier League (and FPL) has never seen before.

Further Read: Man City Defenders Analysis & Ratings for 2022/23 FPL Season

Overperformance

*Stats taken from @FPL_Chase on Twitter (Do give him a follow for outstanding data visualization)

One of the most impressive aspects of Haaland’s game is his xG overperformance. As Premier League fans, we are aware of the staggering overperformance of Son, but Haaland has a potential to be almost as good. In his Bundesliga career, Haaland had an xG overperformance of +11.8 (+28.0%). In comparison, throughout their Prem careers, Son has an xG overperformance of +21.9 (+43.7%) and Kane has an xG overperformance of +10.1 (+12.8%). Especially when we expect any City attacker to have elite expected stats, Haaland’s overperformance could produce some mind-boggling results. For reference, between 17-18 and 20-21, Aguero had an overperformance of +6.9 (+15.0%).

Further Read: Man City Midfielders/Forwards Analysis for 2022/23 FPL Season

Injury History

While Haaland’s performances and statistics are mind-boggling, it won’t matter if he can’t get on the pitch. Since the 17-18 season, the longest period Haaland has been injury free (incl. >7 days) is 11 months. Haaland has had 8 total injuries that put him out for over a week (Source: transfermrkt.us):

Ligament injury (14 days, Oct-Nov 2018)
Bruise (14 days, Oct 2019)
Knee problems (11 days, Nov 2019)
Knee problems (11 days, May-Jun 2020)
Torn muscle (28 days, Nov-Dec 2020)
Muscular problems (18 days, Sep-Oct 2021)
Hip flexor issue (35 days, Oct-Nov 2021)
Muscular problems (42 days, Jan-Mar 2022)

The most concerning aspect of Haaland’s injury woes is that he had three injuries last season alone: muscular problems (18 days, Sep-Oct), a hip flexor issue (35 days, Oct-Nov), and more muscular problems (42 days, Jan-Mar). We have already seen a careful consideration for this from City’s management, as Haaland is on individual programming and only played one half in his only preseason game (vs Bayern). This is cause for concern in FPL, given that we don’t want our premium players to be rested every other week. Considering the demanding schedule for a team like City, we can’t exactly be hopeful that Haaland will be a consistent starter in the Prem. I’ll speak specifically about this later in the rotation section, especially because Haaland isn’t injured right now. But generally, his injury history is something to be mindful of when it comes to selecting him in FPL.

Further Read: Best FPL Forwards to Consider Ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season

21-22 Season in Detail

While it’s important to see how Haaland has performed throughout his whole career, we should also look at last season alone. It gives us two important perspectives: how Haaland has performed after injury and how Dortmund have performed with and without Haaland.

Dortmund as a Team

Last season, Dortmund finished second in the Bundesliga, finishing with 69 points from 34 games (22-3-9). They scored 85 goals (2.5/game) from an xG of 62.8. In the league, Haaland led the team in goals with 22, the next highest were Reus and Brandt with 9 each. In the UCL, Dortmund had a disappointing season, finishing third in their group. They then went to the Europa League where they lost to Rangers in the playoffs. They lost the Supercup to Bayern and got knocked out of the DFB-Pokal by St. Pauli in the R16. All in all, it was a slightly disappointing season for a Dortmund team that has been quite successful in recent years.

With and Without Haaland

Haaland missed 10 league games through injury. He started 21 and featured as a sub in 3. In just over 1,900 minutes, he scored 22 goals and 8 assists (1.41 G+A/90). In the 10 games without Haaland, Dortmund scored 2.20 G/game. In the 24 games with Haaland, Dortmund scored 2.63 G/game. They were undoubtedly more potent in attack as a team with Haaland than without him. Man City scored 2.61 G/game in the Prem last season, so it’s hard to see that number going up much higher, but it is a scary thought that Haaland could make the attack even better.

Haaland’s Injury Response

As noted earlier, Haaland struggled through three periods of injury last season. The first was a muscular injury early in the season, between September and October. He missed two Bundesliga games and a UCL group stage game. He scored 2 goals on his return against Mainz and then blanked against Ajax in a 4-0 UCL loss. These were the only two games Haaland played before getting injured again, this time a hip flexor issue that kept him out for a little over a month. He returned from injury against Wolfsburg, scoring in a 17-minute cameo. He then scored one against Bayern (82 mins) and two against Besiktas (27 mins). Haaland’s third injury came in late January and kept him out through early March. It was another muscle injury and upon return this time, he struggled a bit. He blanked in 4 straight Bundesliga appearances, before picking up an assist against Stuttgart then exploding for two goals and an assist against Wolfsburg.

In this short period, we can’t definitively say if Haaland struggles after injuries or not. He has instances where he has come back flying and others where he has struggled to get going a bit. When Haaland eventually gets injured, it’s something to keep in mind upon his return. There are other variables such as how City will manage his minutes, but when it comes to his performances alone, we should continue to assess his response to injury.

Further Read: Best FPL Assets To Consider From Promoted Teams | 22/23 Season

Flat Track Bully?

When it comes to Haaland’s time at Dortmund, one of the most pertinent questions for FPL is if he was a flat track bully or not. When it comes to premiums, we want to be captaining them and we want them to have explosive potential. If an FPL asset scores a lot but doesn’t do so in bursts, they aren’t as viable as a captaincy option. In his 24 Bundesliga appearances last season, here’s how Haaland performed against different levels of defense (based on Bundesliga 21-22 xGA table):

Vs. Top 6 (7 games): 7 goals, 1 assist
Vs. Mid 6 (10 games): 9 goals, 5 assists
Vs. Bottom 6 (7 games): 6 goals, 1 assist

Last season, Haaland was not a flat-track bully. However, Dortmund as a team were not flat track bullies either. Here’s how Dortmund’s attack performed in the Bundesliga last season:

Vs. Top 6: 2.29 G/90
Vs. Mid 6: 2.80 G/90
Vs. Bottom 6: 2.14 G/90

Dortmund’s attack surprisingly performed worst against the worst defenses in the league. For reference, here is how City’s attack performed in the Prem last season (based on Prem 21-22 xGA table):

Vs. Top 7: 1.83 G/90
Vs. Mid 6: 2.58 G/90
Vs. Bottom 7: 3.29 G/90

While Haaland’s Bundesliga performances might not make him look like the best option to target for captaincy hauls, we have to keep in mind the team performance. We’ve seen Aguero and De Bruyne drop 4 and 5 goal performances before, so there’s no reason we won’t see Haaland do the same. He has the potential to become a flat track bully in the Prem, simply down to the volume of City’s attacking production against weak defenses.

Further Read: Best 8.0 Million FPL Midfielders- Stats, Comparison & Verdict

General Expectations at City

So, Haaland’s individual stats are world class and we’ve seen the impact he has had to the Dortmund attack, so what can we expect from him at City? It’s a scary prospect to have a super-athlete who has averaged 1.31 G+A/90 for their professional career join one of the world’s best attacks. All signs (aside from Haaland’s injury worries) point to a stunning result. As I said earlier, we can potentially see something the Premier League has never seen before. I’ll go out there and say that if Haaland gets consistent minutes, he will be a better asset than Salah.

I’ll refrain from in-depth tactical analysis for the sake of brevity, but almost everything about City’s game sets Haaland up for success. The offside goal that Haaland scored vs Bayern just showed the types of opportunities Haaland is going to get. Haaland has thrived at those chances—darting, anticipatory runs in front of goal—so it’s pretty easy to see him fit in at City. As a team, City produce so many moments where the ball gets cut across from the left or right side of the box towards the center; Aguero and Sterling have particularly excelled at scoring these types of goals.

The main detriment to Haaland’s game in joining City is the lack of counterattacks that City produce, however, there should be plenty of other opportunities for Haaland to get himself onto. While he may take time to adapt, his game is so dynamic and City just produce so much that he will score goals when he plays. Aguero’s performances under Pep could be the baseline for Haaland. He has the potential to be a different monster, and that says a lot given the comparison.

At the same time, there are a lot of unknowns at the moment. This will be the most difficult moment in all of Haaland’s time at City for us to judge him, both as a member of the squad and as an FPL asset. He’s so new to the team that while we can be sure of his performances over time, we can’t say the same for the short term. When there are viable captaincy alternatives, is it worth taking the risk on Haaland to start? Let’s discuss some of the most pressing questions and concerns regarding Haaland as an FPL asset.

Further Read: Talisman Theory – 2021/22 Report | Who Got The Assist(WGTA)

Rotation/Pep Roulette/Injury Management

The biggest concern with any City attacker is their minutes. Almost any footballer that gets placed in the City attack seems to produce outstanding underlying stats, but they need to get the minutes to turn those into actual returns. When it comes to predicting Haaland’s minutes early on in the season (GWs 1-8), there are two primary factors: how Pep handles new signings and how City manage Haaland’s injury risk. We don’t necessarily need to think about UCL rotation, so we’ll exclude that aspect from the conversation for now.

The first factor—Pep’s use of new signings—is promising, when it comes to new signings, he is not shy to throw them in. Last season, Grealish started all 7 games before the International Break. In my opinion, he did this to get Grealish accustomed to the team and test out variations of attack surrounding him. The most valuable thing to the coaching staff in incorporating a new player is the ability to see how they operate in game. While every Premier League game is crucial for City, the beginning of the season is one of the better times to incorporate someone into the team, especially with City’s fixture run. Before Grealish, the last key attacker to sign for City was Mahrez in 18-19. In the 8 Prem games before the IB that season, Mahrez started 3 games and was used as a sub in the other 5. This doesn’t seem so promising relative to Haaland, but Mahrez is often used in this way by Pep. I think it’s a good sign to see Pep use him that way immediately. The only other semi-marquee attacking signings under Pep are Sane and Bernardo, who were each eased into the team. Given Grealish’s incorporation last season, the benefit of using a true striker, and Haaland’s general hype, I expect that Pep wants to play Haaland as much as possible in the beginning of the season (and all the time). The biggest thing preventing that will be his injury management.

That brings us to the second factor for Haaland’s minutes: the ability for City to ease him in. We know that City can operate without Haaland. Yes, he will add a completely new dynamic to the attack and City have lost Jesus and Sterling, but there are plenty of other attacking options in Haaland’s absence. As noted earlier, Haaland is on individual programming at the moment. He is in squad trainings, but he is also receiving a unique program to prepare his fitness for the beginning of the season. In Pep’s recent press conferences, he has noted on Haaland’s “niggles,” small injuries or potential injuries that the physios are monitoring. One of the factors in Haaland joining City is that he knew there was the ability to limit his minutes and protect his body. It can generally be expected that Haaland’s fitness will be carefully managed. Along with this, we can expect rotation during congested fixtures much like City’s other attackers.

The difficulty for us as FPL managers is deciding if that is enough of a reason to deter us from selecting him. The start of the season is the least congested schedule, Pep is likely in favor of giving him consistent minutes, and the fans will be dying to see him play. This could be the best time for Haaland to get consistent minutes in the Prem. I think we’d like to be optimists and believe in this, but there’s also reason to think he’ll get eased in. Regarding FPL, the decision of whether or not to select Haaland should come down to a combination of your feelings towards the other captaincy options and the threat of Haaland’s ownership. It’s certainly a question that there is no singular answer to.

Further Read: A Guide to FPL Team Structure | 2022/23 FPL Season

Aguero Stats under Pep

Haaland is certainly a different type of striker to Aguero, that’s no question. Their physique is not necessarily a point of comparison. At the same time, they both have the abilities of a lethal striker: finding pockets of space in defense and timing runs to perfection all while consistently occupying central spaces. In a team like City, they get (and will get) so many goals from being in the right place at the right time. In trying to figure out how Haaland will look at City, the best option could be to look at previous Aguero performances.

*Including stats since Pep’s arrival in 2016-17

2016-17: 20 G/4 A in 2,403 mins (0.90 G+A/90)
2017-18: 21 G/6 A in 1,963 mins (1.24 G+A/90)
2018-19: 21 G/8 A in 2,459 mins (1.06 G+A/90)
2019-20: 16 G/3 A in 1,452 mins (1.18 G+A/90)
2020-21: 4 G/1 A in 559 mins (0.81 G+A/90)

Aguero was very consistent in his time under Pep. He scored 20 or more goals in the three seasons he stayed injury free. In 19-20, he struggled with some minor injuries and then badly hurt his knee in June 2020. Even throughout this injury struggle, his per 90 stats were still very good. Since the 17-18 season when expected stats were first recorded, Aguero averaged 0.88 npxG+xA/90. This is perhaps the best indicator of a Man City striker’s potential performance.

Predicting Haaland’s Performance

Now it’s time to get to the exciting part, let’s try to predict Haaland’s performance. Let’s ignore his injury and rotation issues for a second and solely looks at the stats. First, we can safely assume that Haaland will get chances around the same rate as Aguero. This is a factor that comes down more to City’s attacking system, which is a steady variable. We should see Haaland have somewhere between 0.85 and 0.95 npxG+xA/90.

On top of this, we know how good of a finisher Haaland is. His overperformance in the Bundesliga is staggering, and that’s not a quality one would expect to fade. Yes, there could be some regression, but I generally expect Haaland to overperform his expected stats around +25%. Applying that rate, we can expect Haaland to score between 1.05 and 1.20 npG+A/90. In the past five seasons, there are only four performances to get anywhere near this level: Salah in 17-18 (1.27 G+A-PK/90), Aguero in 17-18 (1.05 G+A-PK/90), Aguero in 19-20 (1.05 G+A-PK/90), and KDB in 19-20 (1.00 G+A-PK/90).

On top of this, we can expect Haaland to take penalties for City. I would be stunned if anyone other than him took penalties while he is on the pitch. This will provide an extra cushion to his numbers, on top of the already staggering expectation. As I said earlier, we could truly see something that the Premier League has never seen. Haaland could genuinely perform between 1.20 and 1.30 G+A/90. Regarding FPL, these numbers would argue that whenever Haaland is fit, we should be owning and captaining him.

Speculating for a second, let’s think about what can happen if Haaland gets a full, injury-free Prem season. It’s very unlikely for Haaland to get anywhere near 3,000 minutes, but let’s think about it for a second. For 3,000 minutes, at a rate of 1.20 G+A/90, Haaland would have 40 goal contributions. At a rate of 1.30 G+A/90, he could get up to 44 or 45 goal contributions. At his highest potential, we have a player on our hands who could score 35 goals with 10 assists.

Being more realistic, I expect Haaland’s Prem seasons to vary between 1,500 and 2,500 minutes. In a healthy season, I expect 2,500 minutes and in seasons where he deals with some injuries, I expect that number to be between 1,500 and 2,000. Given Haaland’s rates, here’s what we could expect at each of those amounts:

2,500 mins: approx. 28 goals and 7 assists
2,000 mins: approx. 22 goals and 5 assists
1,500 mins: approx. 16 goals and 3 assists

This doesn’t necessarily matter for FPL, given that per 90 stats are more important for the short term. However, this goes to show that even if Haaland gets 2,000 minutes, he could be one of the highest scoring players for the whole season.

Comparisons to Kane/Son/KDB

Even with all this information on Haaland, it doesn’t necessarily make our premium decision easier. Whether you’re going with one, two, or three premiums (take a look at my team structure article to see my opinion on these options), it’s difficult to choose which one to go with. For the sake of the article, I am going to assume that Salah is the first premium locked into everyone’s team. This leaves us with a decision to make between Haaland, KDB, Kane, and Son. If we knew that Haaland was to get consistent minutes, it’d be pretty easy to select him as the second premium (excluding premium drafts). His stats are just too good to warrant another decision. However, there are plenty of intangibles at play. I hope my analysis helped you take a stance on some of these issues (rotation, injury, etc.), but there’s no clear answer when it comes to those things. That’s the fun part about FPL after all, we’re making guesses that could go one way or the other. Is it worth going for Haaland’s ceiling or is one of the other premiums a safer alternative?

KDB

One approach could be to go for the other City premium. KDB is going into the season at full fitness, which is an exciting prospect given the difficulties he had last season after the Euros. We saw the explosive levels KDB can reach just a few months ago and with the addition of Haaland, he could be an even better asset. KDB is likely safer from rotation than Haaland early on, but his ceiling is likely lower. KDB has only performed >0.99 G+A/90 once in his City career, but it was a season when Aguero was thriving as well. At 0.5 million more than Haaland, it’s difficult to justify choosing KDB over Haaland. Unless we know for sure that Haaland will be missing several games early on, he should be a better pick than KDB. He has the higher ceiling and should generally perform as a more elite FPL asset than KDB.

Kane/Son

The more viable alternative to Haaland, in my opinion, is to go for Kane or Son. Since Conte took over at Spurs, Kane and Son have performed exceptionally. In that period, Son has the most FPL points (by far) and Kane leads almost all underlying attacking stats. We have seen these two consistently perform as elite FPL assets, so it’s a pretty safe bet to back either of them as your second premium. To start the season, Spurs face: SOU, che, WOL, nfo, whu, FUL. Aside from the GW2 fixture against Chelsea, those are amazing attacking fixtures. Given Haaland’s concerns, it could be smart to go with one of the Spurs assets instead. The main caveat to that is the allure of City’s GW2 fixture (BOU). It’s City’s home opener against a promoted side; going without Haaland could be very scary (especially when his ownership is almost 60%). Aside from this fixture, going with a Spurs asset over Haaland is safe, but the extreme potential of Haaland could make the risk worthwhile.

Conclusion

All in all, Haaland should be an absolute superstar for Man City. He has the potential to be an all-time FPL asset, but there are many risks that could hinder that potential. Starting this season, the decision between Haaland, KDB, Kane, and Son as a second premium could be massive. If one of these assets explodes more than the others, those who chose that asset will be off to a flying start. It won’t be a season-defining decision, but it is a key decision, nonetheless.

Statistically, everything points towards Haaland. It’s hard to make an argument against him that doesn’t involve “injury” or “rotation.” We have a genuine world class striker on our hands here, so it will be exciting to see the levels he could reach at City. However, in playing FPL, we have to be smart. Regardless of what we can expect from Haaland over his time at City, we care more about what will happen in the first few weeks. For our premium decision, it’s a matter of risk versus reward. We generally know the level of Spurs attack, but Haaland’s potential is unknown. Is it worth taking the risk to go for Haaland? Or is it the better decision to start with the proven FPL assets? I’ve given you the research, I’ll leave that decision up to you.

Thanks for reading! I hope this article answered any questions you had regarding Haaland. If there’s anything else you have questions about, feel free to reach out on twitter (@4lex_mcfc).

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