Darwin Nunez had a very impressive 21/22 season both domestically, in the Portugese League (Primeira Liga), and in the Champions League with Benfica. Following his huge move to Liverpool, which cost £85m after fees, this article will analyse his statistics and consider whether he should be as popular a pick as the likes of Haaland, Salah, Son, or KDB. I will also look at how other signings have adapted to the Premier League from the Primeira Liga to give us more of an idea of what we can expect from Darwin Nunez – and his FPL potential.
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[All stats taken from FotMob unless otherwise stated]
[For some figures where data was not available, I have estimated it myself using the numbers at hand, so these may not be entirely accurate – I have stated when these estimations were made]
Darwin Nunez – The Statistics
| 20/21 Primeira Liga | 21/22 Primeira Liga | |
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Goals | 6 | 26 |
| xG | 9.9 | 18.4 |
| xG per 90 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Shots on Target per 90 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Assists | 9 | 4 |
| xA | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| xA per 90 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Chances Created | 34 | 30 |
| Chances Created per 90 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| G + A | 15 | 30 |
| G + A per 90 | 0.75 | 1.36 |
| xG + xA | 14.8 | 23.2 |
| xG + xA per 90 | 0.74 | 1.05 |
Núñez’s figures dramatically improved from 20/21 to 21/22. Last season, he had an expected goal involvement of 1.05 per 90 minutes, while actually achieving a goal involvement of 1.36 per 90. He also earned the top scorer award, beating his closest rival by 6 goals.
He has also impressed in international competitions. In the 2020/21 Europa League campaign, he scored 5 goals in 7 appearances. Most recently, in the 2021/22 Champions League, he scored 6 goals in 10 games, including 2 against Liverpool in the quarter-finals.
We can also see that Núñez really over-performed his expected goal stats, showing great accuracy and finishing.
It is also worth noting that with Benfica he also had the advantage of being on penalties, scoring 4 in total. This won’t be the case at Liverpool, but 22 non-penalty goals is still impressive.
The article below outlines Núñez’s playing style. To summarise, Núñez plays centrally, but can play on the left wing.
He also scored 5 headed goals last season, and, being 6″2, offers a great goal threat to crosses from the wingbacks.
Further Read: 2022/23 Premier League Transfer Updates | FPL Impact of New Signings
What Can We Expect from Núñez in His First Season?
Although it can be hard to predict how a player will adjust to playing in a new league, we can look at how other players have adapted to the Premier League from Portugal.
Lazar Marković
Numbers for Lazar Marković’s expected statistics are not entirely available, but he moved to Liverpool from Benfica in 2014 under Brendan Rodgers. In all competitions, he scored 3 goals in 34 appearances for Liverpool, and had several loan spells before finally leaving to Fulham on a free transfer. In his only season with Benfica, he scored 5 goals in 26 appearances and won a domestic treble.
Fábio Silva
![[ Silva transferred to Wolves from Porto in 2020 for £35m ]](https://i0.wp.com/allaboutfpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image-58.png?resize=640%2C426&ssl=1)
| 2019/20 Primeira Liga | 2020/21 Premier League | |
| Games | 12 (192 minutes) | 32 (1368 minutes) |
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| Shots on Target | 3 | 17 |
| Shots on Target per 90 | 1.4* | 1.1 |
| Assists | 0 | 3 |
*This data was not directly available on FotMob, but I have estimated it using SOT and minutes
Silva had very little playing time in Portugal, so the data is quite skewed and we don’t have a lot of numbers for figures such as chances created. There is no expected data available for his time in Portugal, and in 2020/21 he had a xG of 5.3, which was fairly consistent with his actual goals. He did over-perform his expected assists (0.4).
Last season, he had 0 goals (xG = 2.2) and 0 assists (xA = 0.7) from playing only 160 minutes. He has been unfortunate with playing time, and so hasn’t really found his feet in the Premier League yet, but is still only 19 years old.
Further Read: 2022/23 Premier League Transfer Updates | FPL Impact of New Signings
Bruno Fernandes
![[ Fernandes moved to United from Lisbon in the 2019/20 January transfer window for an initial fee of around £47m ]](https://i0.wp.com/allaboutfpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image-62.png?resize=640%2C360&ssl=1)
| 2018/19 Primeira Liga | 2019/20 Primeira Liga | 2019/20 Premier League | 2020/21 Premier League | |
| Games | 33 | 17 | 14 | 37 |
| Goals | 20 | 8 | 8 | 18 |
| Shots on Target | 55 | 24 | 18 | 52* |
| Shots on Target per 90 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4** | 1.5 |
| Assists | 13 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| Big Chances Created | 9 | 11 | 3 | 20 |
| BCC per 90 | 0.28** | 0.65** | 0.23** | 0.58** |
| Chances Created | 104 | 63 | 30 | 95 |
| Chances Created per 90 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
*As shots on target for 2020/21 were not directly available on FotMob, I estimated this by working backwards from his SOT per 90 and minutes rounded to a whole number; so may not be entirely accurate
**These figures are estimations based on his minutes; rounded to 1 dp or 2 dp to stay consistent with other data.
Bruno Fernandes became a solid FPL asset when he made the move from Sporting Lisbon to United. In the 2018/19 season with Lisbon, he was 2nd among the top goalscorers and for the most assists. He continued this form in the first half of the next season, before moving to United and making an instant impact.
In his first full season with United, he created the most chances (including big chances), had the joint-2nd highest number of assists, and was 3rd in the Golden Boot race. Expected data is not available for his time in Portugal, but he scored 18 goals from an xG of 16.1 and bagged 12 assists from an xA of 9.7 in 2020/21.
With United’s dip in form, he had a poorer 2021/22 season. Despite this, he was still 2nd for chances created and in the top 10 for big chances created.
It’s clear that Fernandes’ stats did translate to the Premier League, so this does show that it is possible for Núñez to have a strong first season.
Luis Díaz
Even more relevant is his new teammate Díaz, who made the move from Porto to Liverpool this January.
![[ Díaz signed for Liverpool in the 21/22 January transfer window for an initial fee of £37m ]](https://i0.wp.com/allaboutfpl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/image-57.png?resize=635%2C444&ssl=1)
| 2020/21 Primeira Liga | 2021/22 Primeira Liga | 2021/22 Premier League | |
| Games | 30 | 18 | 13 |
| Goals | 6 | 14 | 4 |
| xG | 5.1 | 12.5 | 4.4 |
| xG per 90 | 0.28 | 0.75 | 0.41* |
| Shots on Target | 13 | 26 | 13 |
| Shots on Target per 90 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.2* |
| Assists | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Chances Created | 22 | 39 | 20 |
| Chances Created per 90 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Big Chances Created | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| BCC per 90 | 0.22* | 0.42* | 0.19* |
| xA | 1.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| xA per 90 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.14* |
| xG + xA | 6.6 | 16.6 | 5.9 |
| xG + xA per 90 | 0.36 | 0.99 | 0.55* |
*This data is not directly available on FotMob, but I have estimated it myself using Díaz’s numbers; so it may not be completely accurate
As we can see, Díaz really burst onto the scene in his 21/22 season with Porto, before moving to Liverpool in January. Despite only being in Portugal for the first half of the season, Díaz remained in the top 10 for xG in the league. He was also 3rd for xG per 90 and for xG + xA per 90.
His expected goal stats have remained fairly consistent with his actual goals, while he slightly over-performed his expected assists in 20/21 and with Liverpool. With Mané now seeming very likely to move in the summer, this really boosts Díaz’s FPL potential and hopefully, he can pick up great form over the season. In the half a season he has had with the Reds, he has really impressed fans with how quickly he has settled into Liverpool’s style of play, constantly making dangerous runs. This does give us hope, along with Fernandes’ blistering start in the Premier League, that Núñez can quickly adapt to playing in the Premier League, but nothing is certain until we see how he performs.
Further Read: All Teams FPL Fixture Analysis for The 2022/23 FPL Season | PL Fixtures
Darwin Nunez – FPL Verdict
As we have seen, there have been examples of players moving to the Premier League from the Primeira Liga and not hitting the ground running. However, players with very impressive stats, such as Fernandes and Díaz, have recently made the move and registered great numbers. We have less data for Díaz, but hopefully, he can continue to flourish in the Liverpool squad. This does suggest that Núñez can also find his feet, but we can’t know for sure.
Right now, although the prospect of a Liverpool striker with Núñez’s statistics is tempting, it seems like it is best to hold off from starting with him. At the start of the season, his minutes are likely to be managed alongside Jota and Firmino. This will be quite a shame considering Liverpool’s opening fixtures:
- Fulham (A)
- Crystal Palace (H)
- Man United (A)
- AFC Bournemouth (H)
- Newcastle (H)
- Everton (H)
However, with picks such as Salah, Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Luis Díaz, and Van Dijk all vying for the Liverpool slots in our teams, it is unlikely Núñez will make the cut, unless pre-season news pulls us towards him. As he is likely to be priced at £9m-£10m, it would also be difficult to fit him in alongside other premiums who have had consistent seasons in the Premier League. When we factor in City’s huge new signing of Haaland, who will undoubtedly make a lot of FPL teams, this again makes squeezing in Núñez quite difficult.
Right now, I think the best decision is to hold off from starting with him, and maybe later in the season when he is less of a minutes risk and if he starts to hit great form then he will be a solid asset to bring in; and perhaps an appealing differential.
As a Liverpool fan, I’m incredibly excited to see how he performs next season, and hopefully, he can soon become a viable FPL asset too.
Thank you very much for taking the time to read this – any comments or feedback are greatly appreciated! Do follow me on Twitter @soph_fpl.
[kofi]
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