Man City Midfielders/Forwards Analysis for 2022/23 FPL Season

Man City have one of the best initial fixture runs, but the difficulty with City is always this question: which assets can we rely on?

Over the course of the season, City fantasy assets go through phases of involvement—dependent on opponents, form, team system, competitions, etc. Dependent on these phases, Pep manages the squad differently, which has implications on FPL. Due to the nature of FPL this year, where we need to use one Wildcard between Gameweeks 1 and 16, the post-GW8 International Break will be a logical and popular Wildcard time.

In my preseason articles, I’ll look at Gameweeks 1-8 in a bubble, developing an understanding of Pep’s management in the initial phase of the season to better understand which City assets we should be thinking about selecting. In this article, I take a look at our midfielders and forwards.

This is a four-part series: read the first one here, Man City Defenders Analysis & Ratings for 2022/23 FPL Season

Disclaimer: Regardless of any form of conclusion that arises from this analysis, picking any 8.0 m and below City MID/FWD in FPL comes with risk. No matter what we think we may know, we will inevitably be wrong. While we can come away with some semi-reliable conclusions, we can’t be sure of anything until it happens. I will present a series of arguments that may point our decision-making one way or the other, but understand that these are only predictions. If you are to own a City attacker in FPL, consider some of the following:

Don’t kneejerk, set them in your team for a period of time. Unless your player gets injured or they are your only route to a key asset, commit to this timeline.
Understand the frustrations of Pep Roulette. Especially given the 5-sub rule, if your City attacker doesn’t start, they will likely be subbed on. You must take the 1-point games in stride to catch the hauls.
Favor decision-based thinking over result-based thinking. There is a lot of luck involved with owning City attackers. We’ve seen in the past that a City attacker can start, City can score 4, 5, 6 or more goals, and that attacker can still come away with only 2-3 points.

Understand these risks and be wary of the consequences, enter at your own peril.

Optimize your squad, check for player stats, and heatmaps on **FFFix**, signup with a 15% exclusive discount!

Elite Attack, Disappointing FPL Assets

Manchester City are undeniably the best attack in the Premier League at the moment. In each of the past five seasons, City have scored the most goals. Yet, when it comes to FPL, the sheer quality of City’s attack is its own downfall. The City attack is elite in both depth and breadth, meaning there are lots of players and lots of positions who score goals. Last season, 7 City MIDs and FWDs scored between 120-165 points; De Bruyne was the only outlier, with 196 points. From an FPL perspective, City’s distribution of goals, combined with the unknowns of Pep Roulette, makes it very difficult to successfully own City attackers.

Although we know how frustrating it can be to own City attackers, it can be just as tempting to try to hit big. City’s initial fixture run is one of the best in the league and many of our midfielders are reasonably priced. With the departures of Jesus and Sterling, it seems to make the remaining wingers—Foden, Grealish, and Mahrez—more enticing. On top of these two factors, we have the introduction of Erling Haaland. While Haaland may suck goals away from other positions, he could also increase our attack’s productivity overall.

With all these factors at play, gambling on a City attacker to start the season is extremely tempting. Is this a false hope? Are City’s attackers going to be as frustrating to own as ever? Or are we about to see a new version of the City attack?

Man City midfielders and attackers statistics

Further Read: Man City Defenders Analysis & Ratings for 2022/23 FPL Season

Overview – Team Strength

In the first 8 Gameweeks, City face four defenses from the top half of the xGA (expected Goals Allowed) table from the 21-22 season: Spurs (4^th, 39.4 xGA), Palace (5^th, 41.0 xGA), Villa (8^th, 49.1 xGA), and West Ham (10^th, 51.0 xGA). Our other four opponents include 13^th ranked Newcastle (55.4 xGA), 16^th ranked Wolves (60.3 xGA), and two promoted sides—Bournemouth and Forest. Overall, this fixture run is good (not great) and it lands City as a top two attack alongside Liverpool on every attacking FDR. It is undeniable that City will score a lot of goals in the first 8 Gameweeks, so who will be scoring them?

Further Read: Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders for the 2022/23 FPL Season

Front 3 Rotation – pre-International Break

As noted in the introduction, City attackers’ involvement changes dependent on which phase of the season we are in. Before the International Break (IB), City have 10 fixtures—8 Prem games and 2 UCL games. Although this period is somewhat congested, it is more forgiving than the typical mid to late season run of fixtures. In such a competitive title race, I would expect Pep to start his preferred lineup in a majority of these games. While we don’t know exactly what this preferred lineup will be, this period of the season could be one of the most opportune moments to own a City attacker.

This idea is backed up when we look at how Pep set his attack up last season before the IB:

Man City front three rotation from GW2 to GW8 in the 2021/22 season

Total Minutes GW 2-8 (2021-22 Season):

Grealish – 588 mins (played GW1 as CM)
Jesus – 502 mins
Ferran – 305 mins
Sterling – 274 mins
Foden – 195 mins
Mahrez – 165 mins

In the 7 games before last season’s IB, the front three was relatively consistent: Jesus started 6/7 games at RW, Grealish started 5/7 games at LW, and Ferran started 4/7 games at 9. If we are to see a similar level of consistency from Pep, then it makes the attackers more attractive picks. The caveat is that we don’t know what the preferred front 3 is. Haaland in the center is almost a no-brainer, but which combination of wingers will accompany him? Or will we see an even spread of rotation between Foden, Grealish and Mahrez?

At the moment, my hunch would be that Grealish-Haaland-Mahrez is the favored front 3 to start the season. The main reason being that Foden is missing the US pre-season tour due to entry requirements, so he is missing out on crucial squad development time while the other two are working with the squad. Pep showed faith in Grealish early last season and Mahrez has a lack of competition on the right wing.

While this hunch sounds reasonable, we never know what Pep will do. One issue is we can’t wait for 3-4 games and then move on a City attacker because we’ll be missing out on the GW2 Bournemouth fixture and owning the player when the fixture congestion starts. If there is a premium time to own a City attacker, it looks to be in the first few weeks. If we are to do so, we have to take a leap of faith when it comes to rotation.

Further Read: Talisman Theory – 2021/22 Report | Who Got The Assist(WGTA)

Goal Distribution by Position

Earlier, I mentioned that City’s attack has elite breadth, meaning that many positions contribute to our goals. I went through all of our Prem games last season on FBref and noted down how many goals were scored from each position in our typical 433 formation:

As I was saying, City score goals from everywhere (well, except fullback). While we can generally predict how many goals will be scored from each position over the course of a season, accurately predicting for a small set of Gameweeks is near impossible.

Most positions are generally what we would expect: an ample number of goals from left-wing and striker, several random CDM goals (Rodri scored a whopping 7 last season), and about 4 goals apiece for the center backs. However, there are two things that stand out for me: the number of goals scored by center mids and the number of goals scored from the right wing. Let’s look closer and see if there is anything important here, or if these are simply anomalies.

Assessing the Man City Center Midfielders

Surprisingly to me, 29 goals were scored by City center mids from open play last season. So much so that I had to double check I counted correctly. KDB, Bernardo, and Gundogan combined for 31 goals, with two goals coming from games where KDB/Bernardo played in the front three. My assumption was that KDB scored more of his goals due to starting as the 9 more often, however this turned out to not be true. Both KDB and Bernardo were more productive when starting as center mids.

While City have made changes elsewhere, the rotating three of KDB/Bernardo/Gundo is unchanged going into the season. I don’t need to speak about KDB’s potential as an FPL asset, I think there is a clear consensus that he is elite but not necessarily worth the premium tag over a more consistent Son/Salah. However, could we be overlooking Bernardo (7.0 m) and Gundogan (7.5 m)?

Last season, Bernardo played the most minutes of any City attacker with 2,857 (over 600 mins above 2^nd place). He tallied 8 goals and 4 assists, with a total of 155 FPL points. Gundogan played 1,857 minutes, but also tallied 8 goals and 4 assists. If you want a consistent City attacker who will tick along without too high of a ceiling, Bernardo could be a good pick. Gundogan is more of an explosive pick, targeting whenever he gets a solid run of starts (we saw this especially two seasons ago). Personally, I will be avoiding both to start the season, but I think they are worth keeping in mind.

Redistributing Jesus and Sterling’s Contributions

Of the 18 goals scored in open play from the right wing last season, Mahrez scored 7 of them. The other 11 were scored by either Jesus or Sterling, who combined for 18 non-pen goals altogether. They combined for over 4,000 minutes and 13 assists. In losing these two players to the transfer market, City are losing about 20% of our open play goal contributions.

We can expect the squad to score about the same number of goals this season, so this 20% needs to be redistributed in some way. In losing Jesus and Sterling, we’ve signed Haaland and Alvarez. While Haaland is likely to be the focal point of our attack, I do not expect Alvarez to play a major role in the Prem (I’ll get into this more later on). This means that those 4,000 minutes and 31 goal contributions are not simply going to be replaced by our new signings. While some have been tentative to say that Foden/Grealish/Mahrez will become better FPL assets due to the offensive departures, I would argue that they have to be more productive in order for the City attack to succeed.

These three wingers have to step up in order to fill in the gaps. While I can reasonably assume that they will, it becomes a whole other issue in trying to figure out when and how these goal contributions will be spread around. In fact, it’s nearly impossible to figure out. We can assume that the numbers of these three attackers will go up over the course of the season, but we won’t know how those contributions get redistributed until it happens. Over the course of the season, we may be able to spot some trends. While we won’t be able to figure out exactly who is going to get more goal contributions, there is one primary figure that we need to look at regarding FPL: expected minutes (xMins).

Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis & Best Player Rotation for 22/23 FPL Season

The Relevance of xMins

If you’re a seasoned FPL player, you know how important xMins is as a figure—both in a predictive sense and an outcome sense. For a team like City, goals will come regardless of who is playing. Therefore, if a player is expected to play more minutes than another (let’s say 3,000 mins vs. 2,000 mins over the course of the season), then the player with more minutes should be the better FPL asset. As noted before, City are losing 4,000 minutes from the departures of Jesus and Sterling. I would guess that over the course of this season, Haaland will play between 2,000 and 2,500 minutes (guessing based on rotation, potential injuries, etc.). This means that there are a remaining 1,500-2,000 minutes up for grabs amongst the other attackers.

While some of these minutes may go to Alvarez and/or Palmer (more on them to come), I would assume that there are about 1,000 minutes to go to Foden/Grealish/Mahrez. These three totaled just over 5,500 minutes total last season and I would expect that number to be about 6,500 minutes this season.

While there is no telling how those extra minutes will be specifically distributed, it adds an extra incentive to gamble on one of those three. Foden and Mahrez have both been great FPL picks at times before, so why would we not consider them given that they should play more minutes this year? Again, it’s always a gamble, but this season it is a more reasonable gamble, in my opinion.

Further Read: Best FPL Forwards to Consider Ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season

What about Alvarez and Palmer?

There is one caveat to the argument I’ve been building: City may have just as many attackers to rotate as in previous seasons. The cherry on top for City attackers this season is that we expect them to get more minutes and therefore, score higher. However, what if those extra minutes get spread elsewhere?

In come Julian Alvarez and Cole Palmer, two young attackers poised to break into City’s attack. Let’s start with Alvarez: a proven goal scorer who can play either 9 or right wing, but new to the City attack. We’ve often seen it take a year or two for an attacker to become comfortable in Pep’s system and I would expect no different for Alvarez. However, he just looks like the type of talent that could get into the side. I expect Pep to ease him in through cup games and some UCL games, but come the second half of the season we could see him getting consistent minutes in the Prem. This is not so much an argument to buy the 6.5 m FWD, but more of a warning that the increased attractiveness of Foden/Grealish/Mahrez may be overlooking the Argentine.

Second, we have Cole Palmer: an academy-bred winger who has already seen some time starting for the first team. Last season, he only played 123 minutes in the Prem, but with more openings in his favored right wing position who’s to say this isn’t his breakout year (“Prem soon come”)? Like Alvarez, I also expect Palmer to be eased in with cup games and UCL group stage games. In 2018-19, Phil Foden only played 335 PL mins for City, but the following season he played 901 mins. Is this the year we see a spike in Palmer’s minutes? I would guess so.

Again, for the period of the season that we are looking at right now (GWs 1-8), I don’t think these two come into play. However, over the course of the entire season, we should keep a keen eye on their playing time because it directly influences how we view the other attacking options. The 1,000 minutes figure that I noted earlier in reference to Foden/Grealish/Mahrez may be diluted if either of these two break into the attack.

Further Read: Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders for the 2022/23 FPL Season

The Haaland Effect?

The addition of Erling Haaland is so important that I am writing a full article solely about him (coming out next Wednesday, July 27). However, let’s quickly look at a few key questions relative to Haaland joining the side.

Will City score more goals overall?

Probably not. Last season, we scored 99 goals without a true 9. Between the 2017-18 season and the 2019-20 season (Aguero’s best seasons under Pep), we averaged 101 goals. I expect our season goal tally to be around 100, plus or minus 5. However, Dortmund were a different beast with and without Haaland. Without Haaland, they averaged 2.19 Goals/90 and with Haaland, they averaged 2.68 Goals/90. Can he boost City’s attack? Or is it already such an elite attack that there isn’t much room for growth?

Is Mahrez less of an option without penalties (assuming Haaland takes them)?

I think the loss of penalties coupled with the gain in minutes should balance out Mahrez’s FPL output. I think he plays 1,800-2,000 PL mins this season (1,498 last season) but he will likely miss out on his 4 pen goals from last season.

Who will play 9 when Haaland is not playing?

This is the question I am most intrigued by. I expect Haaland to start around 25 PL games this season (if he avoids a major injury), so there will be around 10 PL games where someone else needs to play the 9. The primary candidates are KDB, Foden, and Alvarez. We should all keep a keen eye out for who fills that role and if there is ever a period of time when they get multiple starts there.

Further Read: Best FPL Budget Enablers for the 2022-23 FPL Season | FPL Paz

Conclusions on Man City Midfielders/Forwards

Overall, we can expect the City attack to be just as good, if not a little better, than it has been in the previous few seasons. In the initial 8 Gameweeks, I expect that Pep will generally start his strongest XI in his preferred 433 formation. We should see a similar amount of rotation as we did last year during this period, with Pep testing out a few attacking variations.

In the midfield, Rodri should start most games at CDM, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phillips get a start or two. The two center mids should be a rotation of KDB, Bernardo, and Gundogan. I expect KDB and Bernardo to be the first-choice pairing. Gundogan should get a few starts, but I expect him to be used more as an impact sub. I don’t think either of Bernardo or Gundogan are good FPL picks, given Bernardo’s low output and Gundogan’s price tag (just find 0.5 m to get an 8.0 mid or downgrade to Grealish).

In the front three, I expect Haaland to start the majority of games as our striker. I expect Pep to test out winger combinations alongside him, with the preferred pairing being Grealish on the left and Mahrez on the right. After the first Gameweek or two, Foden should be incorporated back into this rotation, with the three sharing minutes either side of Haaland. I expect Alvarez and Palmer to be used as attacking subs and we could see either of them make a surprise appearance in the starting XI.

Unlike the defenders article, I will not be ranking City’s attackers. I think that each of them are a good FPL pick, but it takes luck for them to be a great FPL pick. Over the course of the season, I expect most of our attackers to be in the 120-170 point range. KDB and Haaland are the two who I expect to exceed this (no surprise). I think that one of Foden/Grealish/Mahrez has the chance to break past that 170-point mark and be an FPL bargain, but there is no telling who it will be straight away.

In my opinion, it is reasonable to punt on one of these three midfielders to begin the season. We have good attacking fixtures and we should see less attacking rotation than we are used to with Pep. With Foden, I would be monitoring his squad involvement, given that he is missing the US preseason. If he seems to be behind the others, it could be a sign to go for Grealish or Mahrez. However, this could only influence Gameweeks 1 or 2.

At the moment, Grealish and Mahrez are my favorite attacking picks besides KDB and Haaland. I expect both to play between 450-550 minutes before the International Break. With this expectation, it comes down to your own FPL team:

Do you favor other 8.0 m options who are more consistent than Mahrez/Foden? Or do you prefer the potential explosivity of a City mid?
Do you think Grealish can provide the value of 8.0 m mids at a 7.0 m price tag?
Do you have enough bench cover if your chosen City asset gets benched?
Do you favor a triple-up of City assets elsewhere? Perhaps Haaland plus two defenders?

Each of these questions is key in picking a City attacker going into GW1. I hope this analysis helped guide your thinking. If you are one of the brave FPL managers who chooses to take the risk, I wish you the best of luck.

Thank you for reading! Next on the way: the Erling Haaland Special. Taking a look at Haaland’s stats, Dortmund stats with and without Haaland, City stats with Aguero, and more! Out next Wednesday, July 27 at 12 pm EST!

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If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

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Alex Michel

AllAboutFPL's Manchester City Correspondent Twitter: @4lex_mcfc

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Man City Midfielders/Forwards Analysis for 2022/23 FPL Season