FPL Player Analysis- Based on Home and Away Data

Blog written by the folks at @TheFanalytics who have a website covering Football through Analytics, Do check them out on their Socials and Website. As the new season approaches, FPL managers are sitting down and beginning to draft their opening day line-ups. With budget limitations, how do you know which premium options to go for? We take a slightly left-field look at the best players from last season, assessing exactly where the top players scored their points – and what that means for your selections heading into this season!

The two areas we will focus on are the Home and Away differentials – were any players more susceptible to getting more of their points in these instances – and whether they could do it against the best teams in the league as well as the teams towards the bottom of the league.

Link to all our 2022/23 Pre Season articles including a transfer tracker of all new signings, all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top 10 Home FPL Points Last Season

Top 10 Away FPL Points Last Season

Starting off with the ranks in terms of raw total points, the important players to note are the players who appear in both lists. Mohamed Salah and Heung-Min Son are in the top 3 in both lists, suggesting both players should be at the very top of people’s minds when drafting their teams ahead of next season. For some of the players who rank on one list but not the other, how egregious was the point spread between home and away matches?

FPL Player Analysis ~ total points scored home vs away

In terms of their spreads, a player like Cristiano Ronaldo should give FPL players pause for thought. As a premium option, he was far more prolific at Old Trafford and as a result not as viable as a long-term option for much of last season. Notably, several Leicester City players had a significant home bias last season. Without any knowledge of how teams will perform this season, this should be a consideration when thinking about selecting any players for the Foxes.

Away spread is noteworthy as well. Chelsea and Wolves had impressive away records last season and are represented well in the graphic. Not only that, but much of their representation is from defenders and goalkeepers. Similar to the Leicester issue in the home spread, Wolves and Chelsea defenders may well be at the forefront of FPL manager’s minds.

In terms of total points spread across home and away games, team success clearly plays a big role in determining overall points. If we want to isolate individual performances in home and away games, comparing accumulations of bonus points is a good measurement.

FPL Player Analysis ~ total bonus points scored home vs away

In terms of bonus points, it’s no surprise to see Ronaldo at the top of the list for home bias. However, premium options such as Kevin De Bruyne and Heung-Min Son had significant bias in home games. However, it must be remembered that Son ranked 3^rd in overall points in away games last season, so don’t let his home bias affect your thinking too much!

James Ward-Prowse had a significant bias in away games last season. As a very affordable mid-range option at 6.5m, the Southampton midfielder could be a decent rotation option for managers. As a set-piece taker, he in theory should be able to offer significant returns in home games as well as away games going forward.

We’ve assessed the differences in home and away games, let’s dig into player performance against the best and worst teams in the Premier League last season.

FPL Player Analysis ~ total points scored against top 6

FPL Player Analysis ~ total points scored against bottom 6

One player dominates these two graphics. The many people who select Mo Salah can rest easy with that decision, knowing that the Egyptian is just as lethal whether he’s playing against a top-6 side or whether he’s playing relegation candidates. Another player who was able to pick up points against good and bad teams was Bukayo Saka of Arsenal – someone who should be in FPL managers minds as a decent mid-range option at 8.0m.

Predictably, players for the top sides perform better against fellow top-6 sides, but what about players outside of the top-6? Leandro Trossard of Brighton claimed a decent haul of points against the best teams in the league. Frustratingly, he wasn’t massively consistent for the Seagulls and even at a modest 6.5m, can FPL managers rely on him week-to-week?

In terms of the flat-track bullies, a couple of top players stand out. Mason Mount performed brilliantly against sides that finished in the bottom-6 last season but failed to make significant contributions against the better sides in the division. Similarly, Raheem Sterling seemed to suffer the same inconsistencies of returns, although he was in and out of the Man City side throughout the season. Outside of a run of good fixtures, there may be better options in their price ranges instead of the Chelsea stars.

With not long left until the new season, FPL minds are doing all they can to separate the best from the rest when building their teams for next season. The analysis above gives us some indication of what to expect from certain players and teams based on their performance last season. Certain players transcend the data, such as Mo Salah and Heung-Min Son. For other players who do fall into certain traps when it comes to inconsistent performance, this season is a new chance to prove themselves and perhaps all the analysis above will be rendered useless. That’s the beauty of FPL.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season

Link to all our 2022/23 Pre Season articles including transfer tracker of all new signings, all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Link to all our FPL Forwards, FPL Midfielders, FPL Defenders, and FPL Goalkeepers series of blogs including the best 4.0 million defenders, and 4.5 Million midfielders.

Link to all Our FPL Team Analysis Series for all 20 PL Teams from our team correspondents

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

All our Best Pre Season Reads:

Team Previews:

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FPL Player in Focus:

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Fixture Analysis

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Pre-Season Reads:

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