My name is Sam. I’m a Belgian journalist and FPL casual. Ever since I was little, I’ve been absolutely addicted to the Red Devils – by which I don’t mean a small club somewhere in Manchester, but the national Belgian team. In the next few weeks, I’ll be doing write-ups on the Belgian squad and its relevant Euro Fantasy assets. More specifically, you’ll learn
- Which players performed well, especially in friendly matches which not everyone watches.
- Injury news and updates, which could be very relevant in the coming weeks (Hazard – KDB – Witsel).
- Little known stats and quotes during press conferences
- Predicted line-ups
I would appreciate you all to read the first, second, and third part in case you haven’t:
Belgium Watch EP. 3 – How Fantasy Assets Fared During the First Friendly
BELGIUM Euro Fantasy Watch EP. 1 – Looking Forward and ‘In my Defense’
Belgium Euro Fantasy Watch EP. 2 -Attacking Options & Injury Updates
BELGIUM-CROATIA: 1-0
After the disappointing game vs Greece on Thursday (1-1), Belgium played the losing finalist of the 2018 World Cup: Croatia. The Belgians delivered a more reassuring performance against a good team with a stacked midfield of Modric-Brozovic-Kovacic, and deservedly won 1-0. In fact, they should and could have won with 2 or 3 goals more.
Roberto Martinez selected Thibaut Courtois in goal, the usual trio of Vertonghen, Denayer and Alderweireld in defence, and Chadli and Castagne on the full-back positions. Dendoncker played as defensive midfielder again, Tielemans as the playmaker. Carrasco and Mertens played just behind Romelu Lukaku.
Belgium started the game pretty sloppy. In the first 10 minutes of the game, Croatia had much of the ball without creating too much danger. Interestingly enough, Belgium did a good job without the ball, playing with a low back-line and looking to counter. This is the kind of strategy we expect from Belgium in tougher games in the tournament: knowing when to suffer and pick your moments.
After 10 minutes, Belgium took control of the game. Lukaku (11.0) was extremely impressive. I would say that he’s currently the best striker in the world. He scored a goal following a set piece and his overall performance was insane. His hold-up play was excellent, he led counters, created space for his fellow attackers, almost always made the right decisions on the ball and drove his defenders insane with his shielding of the ball. At one point, he received a long ball from Alderweireld, which he dropped dead with his chest. Being chased and held by three (!) defenders, he managed to turn to his left foot, take 2 more touches and shoot on goal, only to be denied bij the crossbar. In the last-minute, his thumping header was miraculously denied bij the opposition goalkeeper. Lukaku’s a freak of nature. He is, and I cannot stress this enough, a Fantasy must-have.
Another stand-out performance came from Yannick Carrasco (7.0). He’s the other Belgian attacker in his best ever form, taking on defenders for fun and getting chances. He’s on most corner kicks and indirect free-kicks, plays just behind Lukaku (thus getting less attention from defenders) and should have had a goal yesterday. A steal at 7.0. Dries Mertens (9.0) was more disappointing. He looks nailed vs Russia, but is clearly out of form. It looks like he’s trying to force things. But, and this is important for Fantasy managers: he’s always in the box. He delivered some good crosses and is always around when Lukaku shoots on goal, for potential scraps. He’s also on some corner kicks and took a direct free kick that ended up in the wall. So there’s a good chance he comes away with a return vs Russia. But for me, his price is too high and there are better Belgian options.
In the midfield, defensive midfielder Leander Dendoncker (5.5) was once again average on the ball. But this time, his positioning when defending was a lot better. And on the ball, Youri Tielemans (6.5) made it easy for him: Dendoncker just basically gave him the ball and could enjoy his teammates’ brilliance. Tielemans directs the Belgian play with crisp and smart passes and through-balls. It’s very much possible that he gets an assist in the group phase, but I’m not banking on it, as he sits very deep to start the play in the absence of Axel Witsel. He’s extremely important for Belgium, but no great Fantasy asset in this formation.
Roberto Martinez chose Thorgan Hazard (8.0) and Thomas Meunier (5.5) as his full-backs vs Greece. Against Croatia, he selected Chadli (6.0) on the left and Castagne (5.5) on the right. Castagne once again showed that he is a better player than Meunier: he defends better and smarter and is more disciplined on the ball. On the left, Chadli played quite a good game. He’s a pretty solid defender when tracking back and put in some good crosses during the whole game. Castagne didn’t attack much vs Croatia, but could have had an assist when he did.
Overall, the Belgian attack worked pretty well. This was the 30th game in a row they scored a goal – their last game without one was in July 2018. In fact, Belgium could have easily had 3 goals. Dries Mertens was the only disappointing factor. He was subbed by midfielder Hans Vanaken (7.0), who showed how good he is on the ball and put in one amazing cross, which should have resulted in a goal. He’s a sub at best, though, so he doesn’t warrant his price. Jeremy Doku (7.0) was once again convincing when coming on the pitch. My guess is that Mertens will have another shocker vs Russia, and Doku will be the first sub to cause havoc. If that happens, Mertens might drop to the bench and Doku could be a good pick vs Denmark.
And then there’s the curious case of Eden Hazard (10.0). One week before the opening game of his team, Hazard played… 10 minutes. This does not bode well for his playing chances in the beginning of the Euros. He will probably get 20-30 minutes vs Russia, but as of yet he is no viable Fantasy asset, especially considering his price. In his 10 minutes, he also didn’t do much. You can see he needs minutes for his rhythm and to feel at ease physically. Keep your hands off this guy, for now.
CLEAN SHEETS? FINALLY SOME STABILITY.
There were a lot of question marks concerning the Belgian defence after the shocking performance vs Greece. Yesterday, Martinez’ man virtually gave nothing away. The back-three of Vertonghen (5.5), Denayer (4.5) and Alderweireld (5.5) looks 100% nailed. The only doubt up until yesterday was Denayer, who could face competition from the returning Vermaelen (5.0).
These doubts are now in the past, for two reasons. One, Belgium needs Denayers speed, next to the slow Alderweireld en Vertonghen. When Belgium applied high pressure against Croatia, they played long through-balls in behind the Belgian defence. Denayer was always there to outsprint the infiltrating midfielders. Two, Vermaelen played 45 minutes yesterday… On the left-hand side. He seems to be the first sub for Vertonghen, should anything happen, more than the replacement of Denayer.
When it comes to defensive structure, Martinez’ used the system I described in the first blogpost: 3-4-3 when attacking, 4-5-1 when defending. Castagne, the full-back on the right, became the right-back in a back-line of four. Chadli basically tracked back as a central midfielder to counter the Croatian midfielders, which worked extremely well. Carrasco worked hard as well to cover the pass-lines on the left, while defensive midfielder Dendoncker covered the right centre of the pitch and Tielemans stayed the most centrally.
This is a very intense defensive style of play, but with Dendoncker, Carrasco and Chadli Belgium has the players for it. Against a team like Denmark, I would fully expect Belgium to leave the opposition the ball sometimes like this, sitting more deep and pressing on their own half. Especially because Denmark plays at home and cannot afford to only have 30% possession. This bodes well for the clean sheet chances of Belgium, as the team is especially vulnerable when playing a high line with insufficient aggressive pressure from the wing-backs and midfielders. This more realistic approach is what won Belgium the quarter-finals vs Brazil in the World Cup – with Meunier in the Castagne position and with Chadli on the pitch.
IN SUMMARY: WHAT DO FANTASY MANAGERS LEARN FROM THE FRIENDLY?
- Lukaku is essential.
- Carrasco is underpriced. Plays high on the pitch, on most corner kicks, in top form.
- Mertens isn’t playing well and doesn’t warrant his price. Will play vs Russia, though.
- Eden Hazard will be a sub vs Russia, at best. Do not pick Hazard yet.
- The wing-back positions are still a coin toss. It seems clear that the *best* players are Castagne on the right and Thorgan Hazard on the left. But they are two pretty small players, and it’s well known that Martinez wants enough height in his team, especially against teams who play destructive football and bank on set-pieces to score goals – like Russia. This is why I think it’s either Chadli-Castagne, either Thorgan Hazard-Meunier. It seemed like a no-brainer to go with Hazard-Meunier, but the good performance of Chadli made it all possible again. If I could take an educated guess: I would expect Meunier and Thorgan Hazard to start versus Russia, as the Russians will sit deep and you need Hazards creativity to get chances. Meuniers poor defending isn’t that much of a problem then, and he would cover defensive set-pieces. Against Denmark, a team that will want the ball at home, I would expect Chadli and Castagne to allow Belgium to play in the same intense defensive style as we’ve seen vs Croatia.
- The midfielders will be Dendoncker and Tielemans.
- At the back, the trio of Vertonghen, Denayer and Alderweireld looks nailed. Denayer is a good budget option, who also got an assist for Lukaku yesterday following a set piece. Expect that to be rare, though, as Alderweireld is usually more dangerous on corner kicks.
- And finally: Kevin De Bruyne (10.5). We’ll have to wait for more information this week, but right now it does NOT look like he will play vs Russia. He’s had surgery for the fractures in his face, and will likely play without a mask at the Euros. When exactly that will be, we simply don’t know yet. I would not recommend picking him in your Fantasy draft just yet.
Belgium Expected Line-Up Against Russia in Euro Match Day 1
To summarize: this is my expected line-up vs Russia. I expect Eden Hazard to play 20-30 minutes as a sub.
I will give another update just before the deadline with the latest information on KdB, Eden Hazard and other players.
Incase you missed our Euro Group A B, and C Analysis⬇️
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – C~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – A~ Review, Analysis and Top Fantasy Assets
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – B ~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
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Further reads, resources from ALLABOUTFPL on Euro Fantasy Football and FPL
Euro Fantasy Football ~ Best Forwards to Target in your MD1 Team
FanTeam €1000K Euro Fantasy Tournament | Register Now
EURO 2020 Friendlies Round-Up | Takeaways for Euro Fantasy Managers
Euro Fantasy Football ~ Best Match Day 1 Picks and Team Reveal
Belgium Watch EP. 3 – How Fantasy Assets Fared During the First Friendly
Euro Fantasy Football ~ Best Midfielders to Target in your MD1 Team
Euro Fantasy Football ~ Best Defenders to Target in your MD1 Team
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – C~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
Belgium Euro Fantasy Watch EP. 2 -Attacking Options & Injury Updates
BELGIUM Euro Fantasy Watch EP. 1 – Looking Forward and ‘In my Defense’
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – B ~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
EURO Fantasy Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts?
Beginner’s Guide to EURO Fantasy: How to Play, Rules, Scoring and Tips
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Euros Predicted lineups, Win and CS% Stats
Player odds, Cleansheet odds, Articles, Picks and much more Euro 2020 info on Drafthound
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Sam Ooghe
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