My name is Sam. I’m a Belgian journalist and FPL casual. Ever since I was little, I’ve been absolutely addicted to the Red Devils – by which I don’t mean a small club somewhere in Manchester, but the national Belgian team. In the next few weeks, I’ll be doing write-ups on the Belgian squad and its relevant Euro Fantasy assets. More specifically, you’ll learn
- Which players performed well, especially in friendly matches which not everyone watches.
- Injury news and updates, which could be very relevant in the coming weeks (Hazard, KDB – Witsel).
- Little known stats and quotes during press conferences
- Predicted line-ups
Looking Back
According to the bookies, Belgium with its ‘golden generation’ is among the favourites to win the tournament. They are still ranked no. 1 in the FIFA Ranking (whatever that means!) and have been absolutely trashing their qualification groups for international tournaments since
They were quarter-finalists in Brazil 2014 (loss vs Argentina, 1-0), quarter-finalists in France 2016 (loss vs Wales, 3-1), and semi-finalists in Russia (loss vs France, 1-0). In the Euro 20 qualifiers, Belgium won all 10 of their games, including the 2 against their opponents for next week, Russia. They scored 40 goals (av. of 4 per game!) and only
conceded 3 times. Needless to say: the qualifying group was very, very bad. Apart from Russia, Belgium played a woeful Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, and San Marino.
There is little doubt that Belgium dominates and wins against bad sides. The real problem emerges against stubborn sides with more quality. In the past few years, Belgium has had troubles against sides like Switzerland (5-2 loss in 2018 Nations League) and even the aggressive Czech Republic (1-1 draw in 2021 World Cup Qualifying). They’ve played England twice in the 2020 Nations League and were dominated during large parts of the games, although they ended up eliminating the Three Lions. During the World Cup in 2018, Belgium were 2-0 down to Japan until Jan Vertonghen scored a lucky goal in the 69th minute, which ignited an epic comeback. Belgium won the quarter-finals against Brazil with goals on a set piece and a counter but struggled for chances during the last 60 minutes.
Overall, Belgium tends to suffer against good sides. That Belgium still gets results is mainly due to the fact that they have immense quality in goal with Thibaut Courtois, and in front of goal with Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. Especially Romelu Lukaku is an absolute talisman for Belgium, averaging more than 1 goal per game for a few years now already. Roberto Martinez knows this and will sometimes choose a more realistic approach and play on the break – as he did against Brazil in 2018. I will talk about the attack in the next post. Today: defence.
Further Read: Euro Fantasy Football | Group – B ~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
THE BELGIAN DEFENCE
During the group phase, you can expect a 3-4-3, the system Roberto Martinez has been using ever since he took charge in the Summer of 2016. Thibaut Courtois (6.0) should be the goalkeeper in every game of the Euros. During
the 2018 World Cup group phase, Belgian had already qualified for the next round after two games played. The third game, against England, Martinez gave some reserve players the chance to play. But not second-choice goalkeeper Simon Mignolet (4.5), as Courtois insisted he wanted to play every game. The same logic applies during the most friendly games.
This might be relevant information for Euro Fantasy players who are looking for a clean sheet in goal during Matchweek 3, when Belgium play whipping boys Finland. In defence, expect three centre-backs. Toby Alderweireld (5.5) on the right and Jan Vertonghen (5.5) on the left will 100% play all important games during the tournament.
Alderweireld possesses a little more attacking threat with goals on set-pieces and tailored long balls over the defence (he got a goal and an assist for Eden Hazard during the World Cup). In the centre of defence, Martinez will likely opt for enabler Jason Denayer (4.5).
Further Read: EURO Fantasy Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts?
He played almost every game in the qualifiers and recent friendlies. During the World Cup, the place was reserved for Vincent Kompany, who has now retired, or Dedryck Boyata (4.5), who is now behind Jason Denayer in the pecking order. A very interesting pick is Thomas Vermaelen (5), who hasn’t played much for Belgium recently as he’s a player for the Japan side Vissel Kobe, and during the pandemic, it was very difficult for him to travel to Belgium for international games.
Recently, though, he played 45 minutes against Czech Republic in the heart of the defense and was pretty much the best defender on the pitch. Vermaelen still possesses a lot of class, despite playing in the Japanese league. The situation resembles Euro 2016 when Vermaelen came back from another injury but played an amazing tournament. When Denayer or Vertonghen suffer from an injury or suspension, Vermaelen will be the number one defender to come in. And if Belgium wins their games vs Russia and Denmark, and can therefore take it easy versus Finland, expect Vermaelen to play that game. The same goes for Boyata.
Belgium will play with two wing-backs, in what is called an asymmetrical set-up. On the right, Martinez likes to play with a more defensively gifted wingback, while on the left, the player has more opportunities to roam free. When Belgium do not have the ball, this sometimes means that the defense goes back to a back-four, with the right-wing-back occupying the right flank, Denayer and Alderweireld becoming the centre-backs, and Vertonghen the left-back. The question remains if this will still be possible in the absence of Axel Witsel, who covered a lot of ‘holes’ between defense and midfield. Martinez’s idea was always to have a midfield of Witsel, Tielemans, and KDB, which becomes difficult now – more about that in the next blogpost.
Further Read: Beginner’s Guide to EURO Fantasy: How to Play, Rules, Scoring and Tips
On the right, Thomas Meunier (5.5) – who was an out-and-out attacker until he was 21 years old! – looks less nailed during important games than FPL Twitter thinks he is. He possesses a lot of attacking threat, both as a goalscorer from crosses coming from the left as well as a crosser from the right. He’s got 21 goals/assists in 47 Belgium appearances (although data are somewhat skewed by some insane games versus bad teams like Gibraltar, in which he grabbed 3 goals and 4 assists in 90 minutes).
Recently, Meunier got competition from Leicester City’s Timothy Castagne (5.5), who enjoyed a terrific season in
the Premier League. Castagne can play both on the left and right (avid FPL players will know that Castagne also played in the Leicester back-three, but that is not an option in the national team). I would very much expect him to play the third game against Finland, if Belgium manage to beat both Russia and Denmark. In that case, he would be a true differential, as he likes to bomb forward and put in crosses. But he could also well be the first
choice right-wingback.
To me, it’s pretty much a toin coss. In recent important games, like the game against Denmark (yes, our opponents in Euro 2020!) that Belgium won in September 2020, Castagne played on the right and Meunier didn’t play a minute. Against England, they both played. We simply don’t know.
Further Read: Euro Fantasy Football | Group – A~ Review, Analysis and Top Fantasy Assets
On the left, if Castagne doesn’t play there for a more defensive approach, two players compete against each other for the attacking wing-back spot: Thorgan Hazard (8.0) and Yannick Carrasco (7.0), both listed as midfielders. Carrasco played at the position during the World Cup of 2018, but was in a bad patch of form and lost his place in the knock-out phase. Thorgan Hazard has been the main man on the left for the last few years for Belgium, grabbing the occasional goal and assist. This season, he grabbed 4 goals and 6 assists in 28 Dortmund games, but bear in mind that he’ll play deeper for Belgium.
Interestingly enough, Carrasco played a phenomenal season for title-winning Atlético Madrid (7 goals and 11 assists in 35 games), despite a Covid infection and an injury. His stats in the last two months are bonkers: 4 goals and 6 assists in 9 games. He seems absolutely inevitable and a more than interesting Fantasy asset. He is somewhat selfish in front of goal and has a very high ceiling with his assists. It is, however, very much possible that both Thorgan Hazard and Carrasco play the first game against Russia, if Eden Hazard is not deemed fit. In that case, it’s plausible that Carrasco will occupy one of the two spots in behind Lukaku, making him an even more appealing option. To my surprise, he is 1.0 cheaper than Thorgan Hazard and only 2% owned. A gem.
And then we have… Nacer Chadli (6.0). Belgium pretty much exploded when Roberto Martinez announced his 26 man squad because of this man. The former Spurs man plays for a woeful side in Turkey and clearly is the worst player in the squad (while there were better options, like Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan). Martinez absolutely loves him, because of his commitment, energy, and the fact that he can be used as a defensive option on set-pieces.
Don’t forget that, amazingly enough, he started in the semi-final of the World Cup in 2018 against France. It’s an absolute mystery whether and when we can expect minutes from this man during the Euros. He will for sure get some minutes during the friendly games, but at the moment, I would not expect him to start any games. Keep an eye out for him for the game against Finland, though. When he plays, there’s always the chance for a goal or assist in the 3-4-3 system – especially because he also takes some set-pieces when on the pitch.
Further Read: Euro Fantasy Football – The Best Budget Enablers in Each Position
What about Clean Sheets?
Don’t let the three conceded goals in the 10 qualifying games fool you, because Belgium isn’t a defensive powerhouse. The 3-4-3 set-up was tailored for the attacking prowess (Lukaku, De Bruyne, Eden Hazard) and our abundance of central defenders. As Kompany has retired and players like Vertonghen and Vermaelen are ageing, the defensive stats are on the decline. As mentioned above, there are some problems with the Belgian squad
against tougher opponents, where the side can get absolutely dominated and concede chances for fun.
Czech Republic, an average side, provided a good example of this just a few months ago. The side applied high pressure and Belgium choked. They should have had 3 or 4 goals, but Thibaut Courtois and the woodwork denied them of more than 1 goal. It’s no surprise that this was one of the first games without defensive midfielder Axel Witsel, who suffered a long-term injury in January. He is absolutely essential when Belgium doesn’t have the ball – Martinez compares him with the importance of Kante for France. Witsel will probably return from injury in the third game against Finland, after which Martinez wants to use him in the knockout phase.
However, I would expect a clean sheet against Russia, a team that likes to sit back. Against Denmark, a team that takes a lot of risks and plays at home, I fear Belgium will concede some chances and thus goals. Finally, against a woeful Finland side, I think you can bank on a clean sheet with Courtois and defenders like Vermaelen, Castagne, and Boyata. Later in the tournament, Martinez will probably adopt a more cautious approach with a four-man defense and a counter-based football.
Further Read: Euro Fantasy Football – The Best Budget Enablers in Each Position
Summary: In my Defense
- I would pick Castagne or Meunier every day of the week if only we would know who starts the game. Maybe we’ll know more by next week. In any case, they’re the same price so it’s an easy swap. If you’d like to bank on clean sheets against Denmark and Russia, pick Jason Denayer, or Toby Alderweireld for some more attacking threat.
Against Finland, we’ll have to wait and see for the first results, but I’m likely going for Vermaelen if Belgium gets 6/6. - I’m very likely picking Yannick Carrasco for the game against Russia, as he’s in fine form and I expect him to play higher up the pitch than usual. Tomorrow, I will discuss attacking options, and what to think of the KDB and Eden Hazard injuries. On Friday, I will discuss the friendly versus Greece that will be played Thursday night. After that, I will write about the last friendly versus Croatia (6 June), and I will predict the line-up and my favourite options for the opening game versus Russia (12 June).
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – A~ Review, Analysis and Top Fantasy Assets
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Further reads, resources from ALLABOUTFPL on Euro Fantasy Football and FPL
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – B ~ Review, Analysis, and Top Fantasy Assets
EURO Fantasy Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts?
Beginner’s Guide to EURO Fantasy: How to Play, Rules, Scoring and Tips
Euro Fantasy Football | Group – A~ Review, Analysis and Top Fantasy Assets
Euro Fantasy Football – The Best Budget Enablers in Each Position
Euro Fantasy Football Captaincy ~ Changes and MD1 Captain Options
Euros Predicted lineups, Win and CS% Stats
Player odds, Cleansheet odds, Articles, Picks and much more Euro 2020 info on Drafthound
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Sam Ooghe
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