FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview

After a long break, FPL is finally back. The Messi vs Ronaldo debate can be put aside. The Mbappe story can be left out too. It is time to get back into the Salah vs KDB debate, or Cancelo or Trent debate. We are really excited that the biggest fantasy football game in the world is back. We are also back in providing you guys the best tips to not climb the ladder( anymore) but to take lead in the second chance league. In this blog, we will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW17 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification and detailed analysis.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 17 blogs including Confirmed Double Gameweek announcements, Initial GW17 Drafts, Teams and Players to target, Predicted GW17 Lineups, Differentials, players to target, fixture analysis, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 17 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Bruno Fernandes vs Nottingham Forest(H), £9.8, TSB: 2.7%

Going into the initial fixtures post the break, it is fairly easy to see which team has the best set of fixtures. Indeed, Manchester United have the best set of games in the first three gameweeks. Each of the three games have an FDR rating of 2, as they play two (Forest and Wolves) of the bottom three, followed by a game against the worst defense in the league( Bournemouth).

Fernandes has been one of the stand out players for Manchester United so far. As we can see from the above graphic, in the entire league, only KDB(14) has created more big chances than Bruno(8). He is also the fourth best for key passes played in the league, behind only KDB, Trippier, and Andreas Pereira.

The Portuguese midfielder excelled in the World Cup too, dare we say, largely in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo. Fernandes registered 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 matches at the biggest stage. Before the break, he had registered a goal and 2 assists in all competitions. It is therefore fair to say that, he has been in top form.

Meanwhile, United’s opponents- Nottingham Forest have the worst record on the road this season. The have registered only 2 points and have a goal difference of -18 away from their own backyard so far this campaign. Their xGC of 16.82, as we can see from above image, is the worst tally in the league.

Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Drafts with Fixture Analysis & Players to Target

Callum Wilson vs Leicester(A), £7.4, TSB: 8.5%

Before not featuring much in GW15 and 16, Callum Wilson had been one of the most in form players in the league. He registered 4 goals and 3 assists in six matches between GW9 and 14. This included that mammoth 19 point haul against Aston Villa.

Wilson has been one of the biggest threats in front of the goal so far. He has the third-best record for big chances per 90, behind only Erling Haaland and Ivan Toney. Furthermore, he has the fifth-best tally for shots in the box per 90.

The Newcastle forward has 4 goals and 2 assists in his career against Leicester. Four of the first seven fixtures for Newcastle have an FDR rating of 2. After Leicester, the Magpies play against Leeds and Fulham sandwiched between a game against Arsenal. The aforementioned duo are the bottom two as far as big chances conceded are concerned.

Further Read: FPL Players and Teams to Target from FPL Gameweek 17

Dejan Kulusevski vs Brentford(A), £8.0, TSB: 5.0%

Dejan Kulusevski is one of those who benefited from a World Cup break, as his nation didn’t qualify for the tournament. It meant that he has had five weeks to completely recover from his injury which he came back from just before the break.

The Swedish international registered an assist in each of the two games before we broke for the biggest tournament in the world. Overall this season he has 1 goal and 5 assists.

Spurs’ record with him in the team and without him is quite staggering. As we can see from the above table, Spurs really struggled in the games in which the Swedish international was out injured. And guess what, no team had more big chances and xG than Spurs in GW15 and 16 combined, post-Kulu’s return from injury.

Antonio Conte’s men take on Brentford in GW17, a team which has the second-worst NPxGA in the league so far. No team has conceded more shots on target than the Bees.

Spurs are one of the teams to have a double GW coming up soon. As a result of which it would be a wise option to have another of their attackers along with Kane. Given that Richarlison is out injured, Kulusevski is fairly certain to begin all the games, and his stats suggest he will make a difference.

Further Read: Best 8 Million FPL Midfielders Comparison ahead of FPL GW17

Luke Shaw vs Nottingham Forest(H), £4.8, TSB: 3.3%

After having a difficult start to the season, Luke Shaw has grown into a key player for Manchester United under Erik Ten Hag. Since Shaw returned to the starting eleven in GW10, United have the fourth-best record for NPxGA in the league.

Since GW10, Shaw has created 3 big chances, Trippier and Alexander Arnold are the only two defenders to have created more. In that time, only Castagne and Trippier have had more BPS than the United left back.

After playing Forest this week, Manchester Untied face Wolves and Bournemouth in the next two games. As we can see from the above graphic, these three are the bottom three as far as the xG chart is concerned. As a result of which, Manchester United’s chances of keeping three consecutive clean sheets is high!

Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Target from Each Price Range

Andrew Robertson vs Aston Villa(A), £6.8, TSB: 5.2%

Liverpool had a difficult start to the season for a variety of reasons. Key players being out of form, while other players getting injured coupled with the fact that Mane left meant that Jurgen Klopp’s men won only 2 of their first 8 games. However, they have won 5 of the last 6 games.

Robertson finished strong before the stoppage. The left back has registered 3 assists in his last three matches in the league. Since GW10, only Alexander Arnold and Trippier have created more big chances in the league among defenders than Robertson. Furthermore, only Trippier and Cresswell made more key passes than the Scot in that time.

Robertson, again is another player who has been well rested during the World Cup. He would be looking to make up for lost time on the field, come boxing day.

Quick Fact

Liverpool, under Jurgen Klopp on Boxing day have won all 4 matches, without conceding a single goal in any of the games. Robbo and co have the form and fixture to make it 5 in 5.

Further Read: FPL GW17 Tips- Preview And Dilemmas Answered

FPL GW17 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% TSB)

Kaoru Mitoma vs Southampton(A), £4.9, TSB: 0.2%

Mitoma has started only two games so far in the league for Brighton. However, he has impressed immensely in the minimal time in which he has been on the field. He registered an attacking return in both of his starts (1 G 1A) in the league. Overall, he has 1 goal and 2 assists in 309 minutes of action. He also put in a man-of-the-match display against Arsenal in the Carabao Cup.

Brighton’s opponents Southampton are fourth worst in the league for % of chances conceded down the right side of their defense. And as we can see from the above graphic, Mitoma operates exactly in that position.

Despite playing just 309 minutes, Mitoma has already created 3 big chances, only two of his teammates have created more, however, they have played thrice as many minutes as the Japanese. Mitoma is top for big chances created per 90, key passes per 90, BPS per 90, xA per 90 among his compatriots.

[kofi]

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW17

Drafts and Fixture Analysis/Players to Target

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A Guide To FPL GW17 Team Structure With Drafts | FPL Restart
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Position Wise Analysis

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General FPL GW17 News and Updates

FPL GW17 Restart- Confirmed Double GWs, Injuries & Suspensions
FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

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