FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW1 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for the new season, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. Once again this season we’ll be tracking the scores every gameweek and the table will be available from the FPL GW2 Scout picks blog!

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW1 Scout Picks

FPL GW1 Scout Picks- Goalkeeper

Onana has the 4th best chance of clean sheet in GW1 against Wolves with a 43% odds of clean sheet(via FFHUB). United kept the most clean sheets(17) in the league last season and Onana should be a upgrade from De Gea due to his bonus points potential courtesy his passing and distribution.

On the other hand, United’s GW1 opponent Wolves had the worst xG(37.27) in the league last season. They have not signed many quality players in the window and would struggle for goals. The fixtures for the first 3 weeks look good for United- Wolves(H), Spurs(A), Forest(H) where there can be even 3/3 clean sheets.

Further Read: Best FPL Goalkeepers to Target For The 2023/24 FPL Season

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FPL GW1 Scout Picks- Defenders

Clean Sheet Odds:

Team	CS Odds	CS Odds Rank
Arsenal	45%	3rd
Brighton	47%	2nd
Man City	48%	1st

We have gone with three defenders who are playing for good teams and also capable of attacking returns anytime- Stones, Estupinan and Gabriel. City, Brighton and Arsenal are ranked Top 3 for chances of a clean sheet in GW1 as seen above.

Stones has to be on the most nailed defenders from the Manchester City team- Capable of playing at Center back, Inverted RB and also right back. He has improved so much in the last year that he is one of the first names on the team sheet. He has been playing in an inverted position in midfield which puts high higher up on the pitch when City are attacking. Among Defenders priced at 5.5 or Below, Stones is Top for Expected Points(35.7) from GW1- GW8 as per FFHub’s Points Prediction Tool.

Estupinan is currently at a whopping 51.5% ownership and rigthly so- Only Haaland(86.5%) and Saka(56.1%) has higher ownership. He is such a Budget Bargain at 5.0 million with 7 assists last season. Only TAA(11), Trippier(9), Robertson(8) had more assists among defenders than him last season but are priced at 8.0 and 6.5 respectively which is much higher than the 5.0 for Estupinan. Not just in GW1 against a newly promoted Luton team, The first 3 fixtures screams for FPL points- Luton(H), Wolves(A), West Ham(H).

Gabriel is always a threat from set pieces as he had the 2nd Best xG(3.44) and Joint 1st for Goals scored(3) among defenders last season. He is also a nice, set and forget safe pick as he is nailed evident from his 38/38 starts in the league last season.

Arsenal are up against a Forest side at Home who have scored the least away goals(11) in the league last season. So the chances of a clean sheet in GW1 are really high.

Further Read: FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

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FPL Gameweek 1 Captaincy Poll

The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season and a 31/37 “returns record” last season. Do vote in this week’s captaincy poll and this week’s captaincy metrics will be done based on the top five players in the captaincy poll

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FPL GW1 Scout Picks- Midfielders

The midfield is stack with Arsenal and United players- Saka, Martinelli, Rashford and Bruno Fernandes.

With Jesus out and injured, the onus will once again be on Saka and Martinelli to deliver for Arsenal. Saka(202) and Martinelli(198) were the 4th and 5th highest scoring midfielders from last season and are bargain picks at 8.5 and 8.0 million respectively. Saka had 26 attacking returns(14G+ 12A) from 38 appearances while Martinelli had 24 attacking returns(15G+ 9A) from 36 appearances last season.

Both players are very direct and carry a good goal scoring threat. Saka is on penalties and Martinelli is on some corners as well. Not just for GW1, Arsenal have good fixtures until GW7 with Spurs and United the only tough games. Both these games are also home games where they are capable of scoring goals irrespective of the result.

Arsenal are on a high winning the Community Shield and should take the confidence into the Premier League season. Overall, in pre-season both Saka and Martinelli looked good while Saka looking more dangerous with 2 goals and 3 assists.

Arsenal Friendlies Summary:

• Saka ⚽️⚽️AAA
• Marquinhos ⚽️A
• Nketiah ⚽️
• Jorginho ⚽️
• Odegaard A A
• Trossard ⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️
• Havertz ⚽️⚽️
• Vieira ⚽️
• Jesus ⚽️ A
• Martinelli ⚽️A
• Tierney A
• Amario Cozier-Duberry A (FPL Assist)
• Ben White A

Bruno Fernandes and Rashford are the Manchester United double up in the Scout’s team. Post the World Cup break, Rashford has been a different beast. Rashford was ranked 1st for Shots(76), 2nd for xG(13.59), 2nd for Big Chances(25)– Only behind Haaland post the World Cup break. He also got 13 goals, 5 assists from 21 appearances during this time. Rashford is also expected to start the season as a striker with new signing Hojlund taking at least taking few weeks to hit full fitness.

Only Salah(50.6) is expected to score more FPL points than the Manchester United duo among midfielders from GW1- GW8 as per Fantasy Football Hub’s Predicted Points tool.

Bruno Fernandes was Top for Expected Assists and Big Chances Created in the league last season.

Mbeumo rounds up the midfield in our FPL GW1 Scout Selection. With Toney banned, Mbeumo is the talisman for Brentford and should take up the goal scoring responsibilities for Brentford. Mbeumo also well in the absence of Toney as seen in the thread below. Mbeumo has 5 goals, 2 assists from 5 games he played without Toney. Mbeumo is confirmed to be on penalties as he scored the penalty in the 3-3 pre-season draw vs Villa.

In the absence of Toney, Mbeumo becomes more central to everything.

His Goal threat significantly increases (5 goals in 5 matches) and his stats show a significant jump in almost every metric.

Caveat – The sample size of "Without Toney" is only for 5 matches from last season. pic.twitter.com/kfkP21L5XM

— Fantasypaedia (@Fantasypaedia) August 7, 2023

Note: Mbeumo was taken off at 30′ minutes in the final pre-season friendly vs Lille. However, it just look to be a pre-cautionary one as mentioned by Thomas Frank. Just check for final updates before locking him in your GW1 drafts.

Further Read: Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 -£12.5 Million) | 23/24 Season

FPL GW1 Scout Picks- Forwards

Haaland(c) is a no-brainer in GW1 against a newly promoted Burnley side. It is simply difficult to bet against the 86.5% owned forward for Captaincy and rightly so. 36 goals in Premier League is just insane. Haaland did Top all the Goal scoring metrics last season- Goals, xG, Big Chances, Shots, Shots inside the box, etc.

Joao Pedro is the final pick in our FPL GW1 Scout Picks who happens to be a Differential Pick! Pedro looks to be a starter at No.10 position for Brighton who are one of the Top attacking sides in the league. He got 2 goals, 1 assist in pre-season and more importantly looked good on the eye-test. The first 3 fixtures look too good to ignore for this budget forward- Luton(H), Wolves(A), West Ham(H).

Bonus is that there is confirmation that Pedro is also on penalties as Pedro took the penalty in the final pre-season game vs Rayo Vallecano while Gross was also there on the pitch.

Brighton Pre-Season Goals + Assists Summary:

• Simon Adingra ⚽️⚽️ (5.0 Million Mid)
• Steele A
• Alzate A
• Joao Pedro ⚽️⚽️A(5.5 million forward in FPL)
• Mitoma A A
• Welbeck ⚽️⚽️
• Undav ⚽️
• Estupinan A

Further Read: Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) | 2023/24 Season

Full FPL GW1 Scout Picks Team

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season

Pre-Season Friendlies Updates & Fixtures

2023/24 FPL Pre Season: All Clubs Friendlies Fixtures & Updates
2023/24 Pre Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams 

FPL GW1 Must Read Articles:
FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based On Stats, Analysis, And Matchups
2023/24 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW1 Deadline
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL
FPL GW1 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL Players And Teams To Target From FPL Gameweek 1 To 6 

Drafts for FPL GW1:

FPL Gameweek 1 Drafts with Haaland + Salah and Trent Trio
FPL GW1 Drafts with 3-4-3 Formation | 2023/24 FPL Season 
Initial GW1 Drafts for the 2023/24 Season with Pros and Cons
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW1 Deadline
Four Players Who Have Never Left My FPL GW1 Draft
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL

FPL Goalkeepers Analysis:

Best FPL Goalkeepers to Target For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Goalkeepers at Each Price Point for the 2023/24 Season
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

2023/24 FPL Season Positional Analysis:

Defenders:
Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £4.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5-£5.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season 
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

Midfielders:
£4.5 Million FPL Midfielders Watchlist for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5 & £5.5 Million FPL Midfielders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £6.0 -£7.5 Million FPL Midfielders | 2023/24 Season
Mbeumo vs Mitoma vs Eze vs Diaby- 6.5. FPL Midfielders Comparison and Verdict
Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 -£12.5 Million) | 23/24 Season

Forwards:
Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) | 2023/24 Season
Best FPL Forwards in The £6.0 & £6.5M Price Bracket
Best FPL Budget Forwards (£4.5 – £5.5 Million) | 23/24 Season

Ultimate Guide & FPL Calendar:

Ultimate FPL Pre-Season Guide & Tips for the 2023/24 Season
2023/24 FPL Season Schedule: Key Dates, Information & Timeline

Fixture Analysis:
FPL Fixture Analysis For The 2023/24 FPL Season | PL Fixtures

General FPL Blogs:
FPL Team Structure Guide- 6 Different Team Structures with Drafts, Pros and Cons
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
Best FPL Picks Outside Top 6 Teams | 2023/24 FPL Season
FPL Differentials- Players To Watch Ahead Of The 2023/24 Season
FPL Budget Enablers(Top Budget Picks Position wise)
Under Priced FPL Assets from Big 6 Teams
Best Differential FPL Team For The 2023-2024 Season
Players to Avoid in FPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 1
Initial Reaction to FPL Player Price Reveals for the 2023/24 FPL Season
List of Free to Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues Ahead of 23/24 Season
FPL Tips and Best Practices to Have an Enjoyable FPL Season
FPL Team ID- What is it? How to get a Low Team ID for 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Team Names for the 2023/24 FPL Season

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering team previews for all 20 teams, FPL team structures, must-own players, player comparisons, differential picks, fixture analysis, captaincy metrics, multiple FPL drafts with pros and cons, chip strategy, rules guide, beginners guide, FPL tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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