This blog marks the debut for Raj Bagaria on allaboutfpl.com. He is an FPL geek, achieving a rank of 42k in his first season (19/20). He likes to analyze games using a mix of numbers and observations. Follow him on Twitter for regular out-of-the-box takes on football and data deep dives.
Beyond the Double- A deep dive into budget midfield options post the largest double game week in FPL history. I’m writing this midway through the Gameweek 26, and enthusiastic fantasy managers are already scratching their heads over potential transfers keeping in mind the largely blank GW29. One of the biggest decisions involves the highest transferred-in player ahead of GW26 – Harvey Barnes (6.9M), who goes under the knife this week following a knee injury, and is expected to be out for 6 weeks putting his outside chance at the Euros for England under major doubt. Barnes was entering his most productive phase this season with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5, and blanking only twice in the previous 8 game weeks. Keeping the above in mind, I provide a more detailed look at potential options/replacements ahead of FPL GW27.
Harvey Barnes Replacements Ahead of FPL GW27
Raphinha (Leeds United, 5.4M, what!?) vs West Ham (A)
I often refer to Bielsa’s Leeds as hounds, and Raphinha is fast emerging as the leader of the pack. A couple of weeks back when Raphinha switched to the left, with Harrison coming in more central ( or getting subbed), most Raphinha owners groaned a little, clearly craving the typical Mahrez / Robben cut-in and shoot every week – two players I’m sure the Brazillian idolizes. But it’s turned out to be a masterstroke. Raphinha ranks 1st in the league for BCC (5), Key passes (18), and first for xA (2.87) in the last 4 game weeks.
Even more importantly, Leeds players are looking for him more and more. Raphinha has been dropping deeper to spray long balls to the ever-charging Lundstram-replicating Stuart Dallas, and Bamford. Such is Raphinha’s crossing prowess, that Leeds CBs Cooper and Struijk have enjoyed 5 big chances between them, in the last 4 gameweeks, as a subset to 9 headed attempts.
His delivery from set-pieces have added an aerial threat, further diversifying the already multi-faceted Leeds attack. Both Leeds center-halves have had a combined xG of 2.14 in the last 4 gameweeks, primarily coming from Raphinha’s excellent set-piece delivery. Currently, the dynamo is also emerging as one of the captaincy standouts in Gameweek 29, when Leeds play Fulham away. As a mid-priced midfielder, Raphinha would’ve been a bargain, but at 5.4M, he’s daylight robbery.
Bukayo Saka (5.2M) and Nicklas Pepe (7.6M) vs Burnley(A)
‘You deserve more, Arsenal fans’, Saka had said post Arsenal’s draw against Southampton in December, and the 19-year-old Hale end academy graduate has been talismanic to Arsenal’s revival albeit a slight decline in recent weeks. His performance in the Europa League against Benfica was sensational providing 2 assists, and he was rested against Leicester.
Arsenal play Burnley in Gameweek 27, and Spurs in 28 – a fixture that has historically been high-scoring. With 7 shots inside the box in the last 4, and 1 big chance created, his recent lack of returns may be deceptive, and a return to goalscoring form for the well-rested ‘Little Chili’ is likely.
If you are a sucker for punts and have a couple of extra millions to spare, 0.9% owned Nicklas Pepe provides the perfect opportunity to cover some ground in your mini-leagues.
He is arguably Arsenal’s most in-form player with 3 goals and an assist in his last 6 appearances and is becoming increasingly influential in a revitalized Arsenal side. He is on most set pieces and a fresh, rested Aubameyang will be waiting to get on the end of them. He’s taken 10 shots inside the box in the last 4 Gameweeks, and against a Burnley which is poor against the top 6 sides, I really fancy his chances. There is some rotation risk associated with either of these players as Arteta likes to chop and change his front-line, especially with a certain Willian’s form recovery..
However, with really favorable fixtures post-Gameweek 29, with Sheffield United, Fulham, Everton, Newcastle, and West Brom up to Gameweek 35 and a shaky Liverpool in Gameweek 30, I fancy both of these players for the long hold, with returns around the corner.
Jesse Lingard (6M) VS Leeds United(H)
Well, here we are. Hard to imagine a football fan not enjoying Jesse Lingard goofing around near the corner flag. The former United player has been sensational since moving to West Ham, and Moyes’ has had no reservations in dropping Benrahma or Bowen (both 6M) to the bench to accommodate Lingard, who now has 39 points in 5 games (only Gundogan and Fernandes have more), blanking just once.
His brewing partnership with Mikhail Antonio is proving to be key to West Ham’s top 4 hopes who are firmly in command following a small slip up against a certain Mo-Salah-inspired Liverpool 4 weeks back. Antonio is a master at dragging center-backs wide creating huge spaces for the likes of Lingard, and Fornals.
Ranking 1st for shots on target (9), and creating 2 big chances as well, Lingard seems to have the best football and dance moves of his career ahead of him.
Even though he is club-tied in Gameweek 28 when West Ham takes on Manchester United, he does play in BGW29, and that softens the blank a little as a benching shouldn’t be a problem, for now – J Lingz is as nailed as they come.
Outside shouts/ Short-term fixes to replace Harvey Barnes
Pascal Groß (5.8M) VS Leicester(H)
Brighton have been producing some great underlying numbers, and Groß seems to be at the center of it, with 20 key passes in the last 5 game weeks. He is expected to be on penalties even though he missed one last week, Brighton’s high volume of chance creation through him also makes him a bonus point candidate and returns are around the corner. Brighton have some attractive fixtures coming up with a shaky Leicester up next, followed by Southampton and Newcastle. Groß can be a good short-term fix, especially for those looking to wildcard post Blank Gameweek 29.
Mateus Periera (5.4M) vs Newcastle(H)
West Brom’s talismanic Periera makes sure it pours when it rains. He has returned double digits every time he’s returned this season (3 times), an encouraging 11 shots and 3 big chances and 9 key passes in the last 5 weeks seem to suggest that a similar haul might be around the corner, with favorable fixtures coming up in the next 2 – Newcastle and Crystal Palace. He’s also on most set pieces and has scored a couple of delightful free-kicks in the past further diversifying his threat.
All eyes on
Diogo Jota (6.6M) vs Fulham(H)
When Liverpool signed Diogo Jota for upwards of 30m, most of us expected him to be a luxury signing to rest their high-profile front 3. We couldn’t have been more inaccurate. After going down with a knee injury a couple of months ago, one of the many at Liverpool, Jota is finally back in training and would’ve played a few minutes against Sheffield if it wasn’t for a stomach bug.
With a favorable run of fixtures right until the end of the season for Liverpool, I expect Jota to have a big part to play. Before the injury, he was Liverpool’s most consistent performer right up there with Mo Salah. With Trent Alexander Arnold finding form again, creating 3 big chances in the last few weeks, with the highest final third passes and through balls, and Firmino and Mane’s questionable form in front of goal, Jota might well prove to be a huge differential, with ownership just over 2%.
Sidenote
Premier League football is coming at a really fast pace, with European football around as well. This is definitely taking a toll on players paving the way for some sloppy lackluster football as clearly noted in United’s game against Crystal Palace. The last 2 game weeks have already had 18 clean sheets, and I’m expecting more in the games to come with only 8 games giving over 2 goals in the last 25.
Thus having even more than one or two budget midfielders might be a solid idea, sparing some essential funds for defensive upgrades. Lucas Digne, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dallas, Creswell and any of the Man-City guys all seem to be attractive options.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW27:
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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Raj Bagaria
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