FPL DGW27 Matchups & Fixture Analysis | The Little Prince Pick of the Week

This DGW27 matchups blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com.
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our FPL decisions.

I regret to say that I have not found the time to dedicate to a full Matchups thread because the Lenses are preparing for a big move. #FPL understandably did not rank high on the list of priorities. 

I find myself sitting in front of my computer slowly accepting the fact that there will be no Matchups thread when I begin to investigate Sterling, KDB & Mahrez for #TEAMROW in the #TRANSCONCUP. Ironic that it is sometimes in accepting our fate, that we can change it. 

MCI play MUN and SOU in GW29. I will take a look at MUN and SOU defense to try to discern which MCI attacking asset has the best potential for returns from a matchups perspective. 

Manchester United

There has been an interesting trend in United’s defensive stats. When I wrote the Manchester derby Matchup before GW 12, one of my observations was that Manchester United conceded chances from their right and top of the box in the previous 4 GWs (8-11). In the last 4 matches (GWs 24-26), however, the heat map shows us that they are now conceding more chances from their left, while MCI is creating more from the right side of central midfield. 

The reason for this is probably linked with the fact that Luke Shaw has the most chances created over the last 4 matches with 14. TAA is 2^nd with 9. Shaw also has the most key passes (9) & successful crosses (13) in that time.

Watching the games, we have seen Mahrez turn into a creative force for City. He has been dropping deeper more often to receive the ball and link play, but he is also still a focal point near the opponent’s box when City are looking to penetrate.

Here we can see how Sterling is more of a goal threat while Mahrez is more of ac reator despite his propensity to shoot. The xG shot map shows us why Sterling has the better goal opportunity.

The stats support this as Mahrez has an xA of 1.4 over the last 2 GWs compared to KDBs 0.52 xA. The way City have been playing, Mahrez has been creating chances for players like Sterling on the opposite side. Over the last 2 GWs Sterling has 8 SIB, 4 BC, with an xG of 2.51. He is quietly gaining some form as a direct beneficiary of the increased threat of Mahrez for opponents. 

While he has been moved around some lately, Cancelo is the other player that can find himself playing in an area dangerous for United. It will be intersting to see how Ole counters Cancelo if played on the right. Cancelo plays too narrow for Shaw to mark him so Shaw should stay on Mahrez. If Fred picks him up, then KDB could be a problem for United.

There are many ways for this tactical battle to go, but it seems likely we will see a return of some sort coming from the battle for this area of the field. Lastly, Gundogan also likes to lurk around the far post and even the penalty spot. If the DCMs are occupied with KDB et al, Gundo could be slipping in unnoticed from a deep-lying position. 

Further Read: FPL DGW 27 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima

Southampton

6 weeks ago, I wrote about how SOU were conceding the most chances from their right side and among the fewest from their left. This sentiment was parroted about 3 weeks ago, but by then, the numbers had begun to change. With the loss of Romeu, there is now a vulnerability on the left side that opponents can exploit. 

SOU have conceded 8 chances from the left, 9 chances from the middle, and 11 chances from the right in the last 4 matches. They also have a respectable xGC of 4.84 over that time, but suffer from an underperforming of that stat by a league-high 2.16.

It could be said they are finding some kind of balance, but I think it is more a case of mistakes by inexpereinced players making it easier for teams to pick and choose where they attack. Facing a team like City, who move the ball so well, I expect the underperformance of their xGC to get worse after this match.

It will be interesting to see if Pep plays either Sterling or Ferran on the right and Foden on the left to take advantage of the areas near the end line where SOU concede chances. It would make sense for a right-footed player to be on the right and the left-footed player to be on the left in this scenario. 

To conclude, I am pretty sure we will see a familiar Pep XI against United. Watch for the connection between Mahrez and Sterling in that one as KDB is used to drag MUNs 2 DCM out of pisition.

I know many are calling for a 0-0 here, but my money is on City scoring a couple and keeping a clean sheet. Against SOU it makes tactical sense to rotate the squad because of SOU vulnerabilities deep in their flanks. Having attackers that can get around defenders to the end line would be an advantage given SOU recent vulnerabilities.

Further Read: FPL DGW27 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW27 Deadline

The Little Prince Pick for FPL DGW27 ~ Bukayo Saka

This week’s Little Prince is Bukayo Saka against BUR. I have to be honest, this is a pick from emotion. The first emotion is the desire to troll Sean Dyche for the way he lined up against Spurs gifting returns to players highly owned in the top 10k. The second emotion is admiration for this player. He has accepted a huge weight to carry this team emotionally and he does not seem phased by it. In fact, he seems to thrive under that pressure. Since moving from left wingback to right-wing, he has been pivotal to Arsenal. 

Recently Saka has been playing in various roles. We see his movement in the last 4 matches to be more fluid. Saka is very much a versatile player and this movement bode well for him as a growing talisman of this team. I expect him to shred BUR midfield 2.

Thanks again for spending some time with my thoughts for #GW27. I hope you still found this shorter analysis helpful in making your decisions for yet another DGW. Also please check out #NetThatHaul with me and @FPLMariner live at 7 am PST Friday. Check local times. NET THAT HAUL with FPLMariner – YouTube.

I will be surrounded by the red rocks of the desert this weekend, but I hope that will not bring red arrows. May you live in luscious green this weekend.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW27:

FPL DGW27 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW27 Deadline
Harvey Barnes Replacements & FPL Budget Midfielders Analysis | FPL GW27
FPL DGW 27 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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FPL Lens

FPL Lens, otherwise known as Gabriel, is a B licensed coach and writes #FPLMatchups articles from a coach's perspective. He uses his 25 years of coaching experience to examine teams, players, and situations in the premier league with the aim of gaining some insight for FPL. His methodology begins with the eye test, and he will often use various types of heat maps to illustrate his points. Stats for him are always a good way to verify our experience of the game. He can be found on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/FPLLens

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