This blog is written by Raj Bagaria on allaboutfpl.com. He is an FPL geek, achieving a rank of 42k in his first season (19/20). He likes to analyze games using a mix of numbers and observations. Follow him on Twitter for regular out-of-the-box takes on football and data deep dives. Check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here. The Man City FPL Conundrum – What to do, and more importantly what to not, with your City assets.
Two things to duly note before I delve deeper into potential solutions :
It is absolutely okay to own 3 Man City players.
It is absolutely okay to not own any Man City players.
With a barrage of fixtures coming up, Pep’s roulette is expected to be at it’s unpredictable best and a fair share of benchings and rotations can be seen forthcoming. Man City play 8 fixtures from the 4th of April up until the end of the month in all competitions, with key players like Ruben Dias, Stones, Cancelo, Bernardo Silva, and Gundogan already having played 3 quick games in the international break. With a comfortable 14 point lead over Manchester United (game in hand), it is crucial to try and predict which City assets provide the best value, especially considering the Gameweek 33 blank. If you are someone holding onto 3 City assets, it may be worthwhile to have a good bench. Focusing on the next 4-5 fixtures, here’s what you could do with your city assets:
Man City FPL Assets ~ Midfielders
Kevin De Bruyne (11.9M)
I currently view Kevin De Bruyne as the best Man City asset in the game, and a very viable differential captain choice in GW30. He was rested in Belgium’s last fixture and has been in devastating form after coming back from injury. He was also rested in City’s 3-0 win against Fulham and is as close as it gets to being a guaranteed starter in a Guardiola team.
The last time City met Leicester, the Foxes put 5 past them, but the former was a different team then, and it’s safe to assume they go in as major favorites. I fancy a well-rested De Bruyne who’s had 8 shots in the box (13 total), 12 key passes with 2 BCC in the last 4 Gameweeks to definitely bring in some returns, especially having noticed the sharpness he had all of last season with 2 exquisite left foot goals in recent weeks.
Plus with Aguero and Jesus not really starting games consistently, De Bruyne has been used in the False-9 role which makes him the receiver of multiple cutbacks that the Silva’s and Mahrez’ provide, a move Gundogan heavily benefited from in De Bruyne’s absence.
Earlier on in the season, De Bruyne was underperforming his xG massively, having scored just 1 of his 6 big chances over a stretch, those demons seem to have been banished now with 1G+1A over the international break as well. Another reason I fancy De Bruyne is due to the ceiling he provides in a high-volume chance creation team like Manchester City, one of the swiftest ways to the top with ownership at a reasonable 18%.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW30 Deadline
Riyad Mahrez (8.1M)
Mahrez is Man City’s most in-form player, also their leading point-scorer in the last 4 Gameweeks. His total of 12 shots, with 4 from inside the box are second only to De Bruyne, and he is an absolute steal at 8.1M. Since Gameweek 19, he has been rested against only Fulham and Sheffield United, which shows how key he has been to Man City’s dream run. The Algerian has been scoring sublime goals and has heavily outperformed his xG of 0.96 in the last 4 game weeks. He has a goal to his name against the Foxes, his former side in the return fixture, and is expected to be a menace on the right-hand side.
However, having played for Algeria over the international break, I’d rate his starting chances relatively lower than De Bruyne, albeit pretty high in general. At just 7.4% ownership, he’d be quite the punt if you’re thinking of bringing him in, a risky one as well if you don’t hold a wildcard. But if you have him, I think there’s more than enough reason to not sell. Over the next 3 games against Leicester, Leeds, and Aston Villa I’d fancy him to start at least 2 as City go deeper in other competitions as well, and a nice haul might be around the corner.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
Gundogan (6.1M)
The German has provided incredible value and is the most owned City midfielder at 35.1%. Although De Bruyne’s return has seen his returns drop, expectedly at that, Gundogan is still a steal. Heavily benefitting from the cutbacks from the likes of Mahrez, Foden, Torres, and Sterling, his attacking numbers skyrocketed earlier in the season, making him the game’s best budget midfielder comfortably. The German however has played all 3 games for his country over the international break, and even though he was rested against Fulham, there is a chance Guardiola rests him looking ahead at the Champions League clash against Dortmund. Still, a very comfortable keep, as he is assured to start 2 of the next 3, along with Mahrez, and the Leeds fixture especially seems like a high-scoring affair. With his price, benching prospects should not be a headache although due to his deep-lying role, I don’t see him as a potent captaincy option.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
Outside Shout – Phil Foden (6.1M)
With the Premier League more or less wrapped up, this might be a great time to take a punt on England’s top teenager. Foden’s had a massive record in big games, and with ownership at just 7.8%, he can prove to be an appropriate differential. With the likes of Mahrez, Silva, Gundogan and De Bruyne almost guaranteed to start in the Champions League, Foden represents amazing value in the game, and I expect some big returns to be coming in from a player of his caliber.
Note : If however you have more than 1 Man City midfielder you might start thinking about potential transfers, like the in-form Diogo Jota, Bukayo Saka, and a cheeky punt on Pedro Neto. With a blank gameweek coming up, and the team expected to be heavily rotated, it may be wise to consider keeping only one midfielder of the above.
Man City FPL Defenders : A proper case of split-pot.
First, let’s look at these numbers :
Joao Cancelo: 122 points
John Stones: 122 points
Ruben Dias: 127 points
3 of the top 5 defenders in the game, points as evenly split as possible. All 3, in the top 5 for different reasons, and it really comes down to how you view the game. Ruben Dias is the most nailed of the lot, absolutely relentless. 11 game in 35 days, the man possesses a bottomless tank. However, the threat he provides is significantly lesser, with just 1 goal and 1 assist all season. Most of his hauls are in the region of 6-8 points and it is most likely to remain that way. With Nathan Ake back in the picture, City now have 4 centre-backs ready to go, excluding the more than capable Fernandinho. With the league title all but wrapped up, Dias might be rested a lot more and that dents his chances of returns, especially because of his low threat.
John Stones is definitely a first-choice center-back, but do City even need to play first-choice defenders anymore. He is rested more often than Dias and has played all 3 games in the international break. I really think he starts in the Champions League, and if he were to play against Leicester, that would make it 5 games in 2 weeks. Highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened before. The threat he provides is significant, both aerial, and in channeling his inner poacher skills, which shows in his hauls. He has 3 hauls of over 10 points as compared to Dias’ one. He is also almost a million cheaper, but I don’t recommend bringing him in currently, especially with huge rotation risks and a blank coming up and depending on his attacking returns albeit more likely than Dias’ are still highly aspirational.
Joao Cancelo provides more threat than the other two but is more susceptible to rotation as well. He has created 3 BCC in the last 4 weeks even after being rested in one and has a 12 point haul to his name in the previous game. He has also played 4 games in the last 2 weeks with club and country and going by this season’s history a rest is around the corner. On the whole, it’s how you look at the game, on whether you want to play it relatively safe, or hope for those attacking returns. At this point, Stones and Cancelo I feel offer better chances, especially if you are chasing your mini-leagues. Dias has been the first name on the sheet, but with the importance of the other fixtures, that might be about to change.
Note: I feel it is perfectly alright to stick with a City defender till the end, as I’ve noticed that the players on the bench seldom come on. Guardiola has chosen to give 90 mins to Dias in the past 5 games, and Stones and Cancelo have clocked in 90 on 3 occasions. It is safe to say that they are likely to come off the bench. This brings me to the point: City defenders still offer incredible value if you have a decent bench, as 1 pointers are highly improbable. That risk is a little more present when it comes to the midfielders, as one can expect the likes of Mahrez and De Bruyne to be hooked if the game is wrapped up early.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30:
FPL GW30 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW30 Deadline
FPL GW30 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
FPL GW30 Attacking and Defensive Matchups | FPL Fanatix
Fixtures to Target for Attacking Points in FPL GW30
Best Three FPL GW 30 One Week Punts to Consider
Chelsea’s Transformation Under Tuchel and the FPL assets to consider for the run-in
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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Raj Bagaria
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