If we take a look at this great fixture schedule created by @EnthusiastFpl we can see that Chelsea double next week (GW34) and in GW36. Around this, their fixtures are very promising and a Chelsea double-up or triple-up looks like a great strategy. This blog is written by (@soph_FPL, do give her a follow on Twitter if you haven’t already!
Mason Mount vs Kai Havertz
Considering the new fixture announcements, I will be comparing Chelsea’s appealing midfield options (Havertz vs Mount):
- Mason Mount (£7.7m)
- Kai Havertz (£7.9m)
Does one option really stand out? Or should you consider bringing in both?
[All stats taken from FFSCOUT unless stated]
Mount vs Havertz: The Stats
| Mount | Havertz | |
| Starts / Minutes | 22 / 1915 | 18 / 1471 |
| Total Points (per 90) | 148 (6.86) | 94 (5.66) |
| Goals | 10 | 7 |
| xG (per 90) | 7 (0.32) | 7.35 (0.44) |
| npxG (per 90) | 6.22 (0.29) | 7.35 (0.44) |
| Big Chances (per 90) | 9 (0.42) | 13 (0.78) |
| Goal Attempts (per 90) | 55 (2.55) | 43 (2.59) |
| Shots on Target (per 90) | 26 (1.20) | 19 (1.14) |
| Pen. Area Touches (per 90) | 105 (4.87) | 102 (6.14) |
| Assists / FPL Assists | 9 / 1 | 2 / 1 |
| xA (per 90) | 5.80 (0.27) | 1.45 (0.09) |
| Chances Created (per 90) | 44 (2.04) | 12 (0.72) |
| Big Chances Created (per 90) | 9 (0.42) | 2 (0.12) |
| xGI (per 90) | 12.80 (0.59) | 8.80 (0.53) |
| npxGI (per 90) | 12 (0.56) | 8.80 (0.53) |
| Goal Involvement | 38 | 22 |
| FPL Goal Involvement | 40 | 24 |
Throughout their stats, both players are pretty close to one another. Overall, we can see that Mount beats Havertz in the majority of stats, but he has been over-performing his expected goals. In fact, Mount is the 4th-highest overachiever on xG. Despite this, he has been really clinical, scoring 10 goals so far this season. He also recently scored against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup. His goal involvement stats are also really promising here, and he does beat Havertz for overall goal involvement and assist potential.
However, Havertz actually has a higher xG than Mount despite scoring fewer goals. He comes out on top for a good amount of goal-threat stats, and him being out-of-position in FPL has really boosted his potential.
Although Mount has previously taken penalties when Jorginho is not on the pitch, Havertz actually revealed in February that Lukaku was second-choice penalty taker, with him being third.
Looking closer at their recent change in formation to 3-4-1-2 when Mount, Havertz, and Werner play together is also important here. These stats are taken from FBREF.
Tactical change over the last three games:
Over the last 3 games (excluding Arsenal, which I will briefly discuss below), when all three have started, Mount has adopted a CAM role, with Havertz and Werner the strikers. During this time, he has bagged 4 goals and 2 assists, with 10 shots on target. He continued to over-perform his expected data, with 2 goals from an xG of 0.6 in the huge win against Southampton, and 1 goal from an xG of 0.2 against Real Madrid in the UCL. He registered an assist in each of these games from an xA of 0.2. Across the games against Southampton and Real Madrid, he made 5 key passes.
Over the same games, Havertz has scored 1 goal against Southampton where his xG for that match was 0.8 but has registered no assists (xA = 0.2 and 0.2 against Southampton and Real Madrid. He has also had 5 shots on target and, across the games against Southampton and Real Madrid, made 4 key passes.
Stats vs Arsenal:
Mount started again in the CAM role, but Lukaku started up-front alongside Werner here, with Havertz coming on in the 60th minute.
Mount registered another assist in this game (xA = 0.3) from 3 key passes, but with no shots on target. This was a disappointing loss for Chelsea, and hopefully they can bounce back during this double.
Havertz made no shots or key passes, but him being benched does boost his potential of getting more minutes in the upcoming double.
Overall, since the formation change, Mount comes out on top. There’s still the small sample size to bear in mind, but it is intriguing.
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”46″]
Mount’s Maps
Heatmaps from FFScout
- Mount is also on free kicks and corners
Havertz’s Maps
Heatmaps from FFScout
- It’s also worth noting that, if Werner continues to play up top with Havertz, he will have a slightly different positioning
Chelsea Stats
| W / D / L | 18 / 8 / 5 (3rd) |
| Goals | 66 (3rd) |
| xG | 57.11 (4th) |
| Big Chances | 79 (4th) |
| Goal Attempts | 453 (5th) |
| Shots Inside Box | 296 (4th) |
| Shots On Target | 169 (3rd) |
Overall, Chelsea often come in behind City and Liverpool as the strongest attacking force. Sometimes the likes of Arsenal, Spurs, and United beat them, but they have played more games than Chelsea. This again tells us that targeting their attackers for the remainder of the season looks like a great strategy.
Chelsea Fixtures
| GW34 | GW35 | GW36 | GW37 | GW38 |
| WHU, mun | eve | WOL, lee | LEI | WAT |
As we can see, Chelsea’s fixture run until the end of the season is very promising. West Ham and United definitely have the potential to put up a good fight, but as this is a double gameweek in GW34 and Chelsea beat both teams in attacking stats, this still looks good for Mount and Havertz.
After this, they face some of the league’s weakest defences in Everton, Leeds, Leicester, and Watford. Wolves have had some great defensive performances, but again Chelsea will be the favourites going into that fixture.
Mount vs Havertz: The Verdict
I think it’s definitely clear that you would be justified in going for either option here. Both are in great form, and would be great holds for the rest of the season. I also think that opting for both if you are on WC or if you can squeeze them in somehow would be a great move. These two, along with James/Rüdiger, would be a really strong triple-up.
If I were to decide between the two, I would personally go for Mount. I think he’s been slightly more consistent over the season, and I feel he’ll be more reliable for attacking returns given his numbers and set-piece opportunities. He has also really thrived under the new 3-4-1-2 formation so far, and although there’s still a small sample size this does look really promising. Like I said, Havertz is still an exciting option with his numbers, as he does beat Mount for xG, so could definitely be an explosive alternative. I’m also seriously considering the Mount-Havertz double-up for GW24. It’s worth noting that rotation could be a factor in the Chelsea squad, but I still think it’s worth taking a risk considering the rewards these assets could bring.
UPDATE:
Havertz was benched for the Arsenal game, with Mount starting again. Although Mount hasn’t been benched since GW22 when fit, this does bring into question whether he will get a rest soon. On the other hand, Havertz getting a rest really boosts his chances of minutes for the double gameweek. This is a very tricky 50/50 call that has been complicated by the increased likelihood of Mount getting rested soon. Although I have preferred Mount as an FPL asset, I think I have to seriously consider Havertz more for this upcoming double as he is more assured of minutes. I still think that double-up is a great shout, but the choice between the two is a lot more complicated now!
A big thank you for taking the time to read this article! I really enjoy writing these and have thoroughly enjoyed being a part of the ALLABOUTFPL team. If you’d like to, you can follow me on Twitter @soph_FPL
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 34:
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
FPL GW33 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW33 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
How to Effectively Use Free Transfers Till The End of The FPL Season
FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season | All Scenarios
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Sophie Wellington
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