We are reaching the final stretch of the season where Differential picks are more important than before if you are chasing to catch up ranks. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW32 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.
Last week 5/6 of our Differential picks returned. So you are at the right place if you are looking for some spicy punts!
Link to all our FPL GW32 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW32 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)
Brennan Johnson vs Nottingham Forest(H), £5.8m, TSB: 1.0%
Spurs now have a confirmed Double Gameweek in GW35 and are also likely to double in GW37. While the focus have been on Son and Maddison, Brennan Johnson is the one who is actually making things work for Spurs. Johnson has 4 goals, 4 assists from the last 9 games from just 485 minutes(54 minutes/game). He has started 3 out of the last 4 matches and in this form we do expect him to start most games. Even if he comes on as a sub, he is lethal as he has 6 Goal Involvements(2 goals, 4 assists) as a sub this season- No player has more Goal Involvements as a sub.
Johnson also has the Best Goal Involvement/90 in Premier League since GW22 even without penalties as seen below. On the eye test, he looks to be at the end of most of the Spurs attacking moves which is good from a FPL point of view.
Not just Goal Involvements, his underlying numbers during this run has been good with 5.4 xGI and 11 Big Chance Involvements(8 Big Chances and 3 Big Chances created). Johnson is also second in the entire league only behind Saka for xGI/90 since GW22.
Top Players for Expected Goal Involvements/90 since GW22:
- Saka- 1.04
- Johnson- 1.00
- Darwin- 0.99
- Haaland- 0.98
- Palmer- 0.87
Even with less minutes than his compatriots Son and Maddison, Johnson has better underlying numbers than them since GW22.
Son vs Maddison vs Johnson- Stats since GW22
| Son | Maddison | Johnson | |
| Minutes | 562 | 722 | 485 |
| Shots | 17 | 15 | 12 |
| Shots inside the Box | 14 | 10 | 11 |
| Shots on Target | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| Big Chances | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| xG | 1.87 | 1.77 | 3.95 |
| xGI | 3.9 | 3.4 | 5.4 |
| Goal Involvements | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| FPL Points | 44 | 35 | 51 |
Johnson was subbed off at 89 minutes in GW30 vs Luton and headed straight to the tunnel due to an injury scare. But he confirmed himself in the post match interview that he is fine. Ange also confirmed in his pre-GW32 Press Conference that -“Brennan is fine, He’s no problem. The only one is Richarlison. He’s had a bit of a niggle with his knee these last few weeks. We kind of feel it’s best he takes his weekend off and gets ready for Newcastle next, but everyone else is fine”.
Johnson in his GW31 post match-interview:
“I think it’s all good”. “Just from a corner, I’m not sure who it was, I got a kick in my knee and it kind of stiffened up a bit but it’s fine.”
Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 32 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Mohammed Kudus vs Wolves(A), £6.8m, TSB: 4.0%
The fixtures are coming thick and fast. As a result of which we not only should look at players who are on form, but also those who are less likely to get rotated in this run in. Kudus is one such player. The Ghanaian has played the full 90 minutes in each of the last 10 Premier League matches. He also played a combined 176 minutes in the two Europa League matches as well. Effectively, he has missed 4 minutes ( when the Hammers were 5-0 up) out of the possible 1080 minutes in all competitions.
| Player | Shots | Shots in the box | Shots on Target | Big Chances | xPts |
| Kudus | 28 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 35.21 |
| Bowen | 19 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 37.53 |
| Antonio | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16.73 |
| Soucek | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 30.49 |
| Paqueta | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25.35 |
Since Kudus returned from AFCON (GW22), no other West Ham player has had more shots than him. He also tops the charts for shots in the box.
Meanwhile, Kudus has had four-digit hauls in FPL this season, one more than Jarrod Bowen. Three of them have come away from home. The other one came against Wolves in the reverse fixture, where he got two goals and a 16-point haul.
Key Stats of West Ham’s upcoming opponents
- Wolves have the seventh-worst record for big chances conceded(82) in the league.
- Only Luton(38) have given away more goals than Fulham(35) on the road.
- Since GW15, only 4 teams have conceded more big chances than Crystal Palace.
Further Read: FPL GW32 Tips – Wildcard Thoughts, Best Forwards and more
Jarrad Branthwaite vs Burnley(H), £4.3m, TSB: 6.6%
Truth to be told, Everton are not in very great form defensively. But their underlying defensive data at home is good and Everton have 4 Home games in the next 5 games including DGW34 vs Liverpool(H), Forest(H).
Everton- Defense Record at Home this season
- Big Chances Conceded- 6th Least
- Non-Penalty xGC- 5th least
- xGC- 5th least
- Goals Conceded- 6th least
The entry point in GW32 vs Burnley(H) looks good as Burnley are struggling for goals this season and are one of the worst attacking sides in the league.
Burnley Attack Rank this season(Per 90 Stats):
- xG- 19th
- Big Chances- 20th
- Goals Scored- 19th
The fixtures till the end of the season look good for Branthwaite. He can be a good budget enabler in your team especially if you don’t have Free Hit to navigate GW34 as he has a Home Double Gameweek with good fixtures before and after it. In GW37 where many teams are doubling, Branthwaite has a good fixture vs Sheffield United(H) so he could come good if you want to Bench boost as well. If your team structure allows you to bench him for GW33 vs Chelsea(A) and GW38 vs Arsenal(A), Branthwaite can work out well as a Differential option for your teams.
Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
Matheus Cunha vs West Ham(H), £5.5m, TSB: 2.5%
Cunha made his return from injury in GW31 vs Burnley coming on as a sub for 14 minutes. Gary O’Neil also confirmed in his GW32 Press Conference that Cunha is fit and raring to go- “Cunha is having no issues and feeling good“.
It is to be noted that before his injury, Cunha has been in sensational form. Cunha got 4 goals, 2 assists and 34 points from 4 games averaging more than 8 points/game before his injury in GW24.
Cunha in his last 4 games before injury:
| xGI | FPL Points | |
| GW20 vs Everton(H) | 1.1 | 12 |
| GW21 vs Brighton(A) | 1.1 | 1 |
| GW22 vs Man United(H) | 0.2 | 4 |
| GW23 vs Chelsea(A) | 1.2 | 17 |
If you don’t have Free Hit to navigate GW34, Cunha is a good enabler if you are looking for a striker as your 8th attacker. Wolves have a DGW34 vs Arsenal(H), Bournemouth(H) and the fixtures before and after the Double also look great!
GW32 is a good entry point to get in Cunha. West Ham’s defensive numbers have been poor in recent weeks and they will be without their first choice GK Areola in GW32 due to a groin injury.
West Ham Defense rank- Since GW19(Per 90 Stats):
- xGC- 18th
- Big Chances conceded- 19th
- Shots conceded- 18th
- Goals conceded- 14th
Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 32 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Joško Gvardiol vs Crystal Palace(A), £4.8m, TSB: 3.1%
Gvardiol is more or less likely to start in GW32 vs Palace as Ake is still ruled out as confirmed by Pep-“Ederson is much better and maybe will be on the list. Nathan [Ake] and Kyle [Walker] are out“.
City’s overall defensive numbers this season have been good as they are 2nd best for xGC and Big Chances conceded. City’s fixtures are good till the end of the season including a potential Double Gameweek 37 vs Fulham(A), Spurs(A). In the short term, Gvardiol should hold his place in Ake’s absence. And in the longer run even though it is a bit tricky, there are good chances that Ake is the first choice LB and plays the tougher UCL games and Gvardiol gets a good run in the league.
City’s GW32 opponent Palace have scored only 9 goals since GW23- Only Everton(7) have scored fewer goals in the league during this time.
Palace per 90 stats since GW23(Rank in the league)
- xG- 1.02 (20th)
- Big Chances- 1.50 (20th)
- Shots inside the box- 6.62 (19th)
- Goals scored- 1.12 (17th)
Further Read: FPL GW32 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW32 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)
Ben Brereton Diaz vs Chelsea(H), £5.0m, TSB: 0.1%
Ben Brereton Diaz has been a revelation since joining from Villarreal in January. The Chilean has registered 4 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances for the Blades. Four of his five attacking returns have come at home. Three of them came in the last home game, against Fulham. The other one was against West Ham. His other attacking return was against Crystal Palace. He loves playing against the London clubs, or so it would seem.
Oddly enough, his next two games are also against London clubs. Surely he is going to carry on his excellent run of form against these clubs, isn’t he?
| Sheffield United with Brereton Diaz | Sheffield United without Brereton Diaz | |
| Games Played | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 1 |
In short, Chris Wilder’s men play much better with Diaz than without him. Sheffield United do have a double game week coming up. Therefore, Diaz might be an excellent option for a fifth midfielder in your squads.
The Blades’ FPL GW32 opponents Chelsea are a bit of a mess defensively to say the least. The Blues have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches in all competitions. This includes matches against championship clubs Leeds and Leicester, and Burnley. The Blades would fancy their chances of scoring a few goals as well!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW32
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL Gameweek 32 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW32 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW32 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW32 Tips – Wildcard Thoughts, Best Forwards and more
Top FPL Gameweek 32 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW32 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
Link to all our FPL GW32 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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Srinivasan S
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