Top FPL GW24 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

With FA cup replays out of the way and double gameweek announcements made, working a strategy for FPL has become more clear. We now know which teams to target. It’s prime time to identify the right options from those teams that can give the edge to climb up the ladder in the leagues. In this blog, we take a look at the Top six Differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW24 Deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW24 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW24 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Alfie Doughty vs Sheffield United(H), £4.6m, TSB: 5.6%

Doughty has been one of the standout defenders in FPL so far this season. The Luton defender has registered 1 goal and 7 assists so far this season. Only Trippier(9) and Porro(8) have got more assists than Doughty(7) thus far, among defenders.

No defender has registered more points than the Luton man since GW15. The Hatters’ wingback has blanked only once in the last eight gameweeks and has registered attacking returns in six of those matches. Furthermore, Doughty is top for %xGI(27%) among defenders who have played over 1100 minutes so far in the league.

Four of Luton’s next seven fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. This includes a double in gameweek 28, with matches against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.

Do bear in mind that Doughty and co blank in Gameweek 26. Having said that, given his price point, Doughty is an excellent fourth-defender option in your squads.

Note: Luton vs Nottingham Forest will only be a confirmed fixture in GW29 if Luton lose to Man City and Forest lose to Man United in the FA Cup 5th round which will be played between GW26 and GW27. (Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29)

Last time around

In the reverse fixture against Sheffield United, Doughty scored in the Hatters’ 3-2 win. That remains his only goal this season in the league.

Further Read: FPL GW24 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

Neal Mapuay vs Wolves(A), £4.9m, TSB: 1.0%

While everyone has been focusing on Ivan Toney’s return, a different forward from Brentford has stolen the show in 2024. We are talking about Neal Maupay, who has not only been eye-catching in front of goal, but has also caught the eye with his celebrations.

The former Brighton man has scored in each of the three league matches in 2024. In fact, the only problem with Maupay was his lack of starts. However, he has this season registered an attacking return in 7 of his 10 starts.

The Frenchman has started 4 of the last 5 matches, and has got an attacking return in each of those matches. Brentford have a double coming up in GW25. On top of that, they are one of only six teams to have a fixture confirmed in blank GW29. Therefore, now is the right time to invest in their assets.

Key Stats

• Maupay is second on the list for Big Chances created(5) among Brentford players.
• Third best for shots in the box and big chances, joint second best for shots on target among his compatriots.
• Registered an assist the last time these two teams met

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Alejandro Garnacho vs Aston Villa(A), £4.8m, TSB: 6.2%

Ever since he scored that wonder goal at Goodison Park, Alejandro Garnacho has arguably been Manchester United’s best player. In this period, that is from GW13 onwards, the Argentinian has registered 7 attacking returns(5G 2A), more than any of his teammates.

In fact, in this period, Garnacho has the eighth-best tally in the league for shots in the box(25) and also FPL points(58). He has had more shots in the box than any of his teammates through the course of this season.

Erik Ten Hag’s men have an excellent run of games coming up. Not only do they play an out-of-form Aston Villa side in FPL GW24, but also, 4 of the 5 following games have an FDR rating of 2.

In the reverse fixture earlier in the season, Garnancho got 2 goals in Manchester United’s 3-2 win at Old Trafford. The Red Devils are finding some form at last. They have no European distractions. Garnacho has been their best player. He has played 90 minutes in each of their last five matches. All things added up, the young winger should be at the top of your watchlist going into FPL GW24.

Further Read: FPL GW24 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts With DGW, BGW Planning

Pedro Neto vs Brentford(H), £5.7m, TSB: 2.8%

Pedro Neto has come back from injury exactly where he left off before the injury. The Portuguese international has registered 1 goal and 2 assists in the three starts post his injury. In this period Wolves have played both Manchester United and Chelsea.

We believe that Neto is a pick-and-hold for the rest of the season. Wolves are a strong force this season, especially at home. The Black Country side have played almost all the top-half opposition at home already this season.

In fact, seven of the remaining eight home games are against bottom-half opposition. Neto has registered at least one attacking return in each of the starts he has had against such teams. In all, he has 1 goal and 5 assists in 5 starts against such teams thus far.

In spite of missing a lot of games due to injury, Neto is top for big chances created(7), assists(10), and key passes(32) among Wolves players.

Meanwhile, Wolves’ FPL GW24 opponent Brentford have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 matches. In fact, since GW19, only Spurs(9.5) and Newcastle(15.3) have a worse NPxGA than Brentford(9.3)

Further Read: FPL GW24 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts With DGW, BGW Planning

Leon Bailey vs Man Utd(H), £5.6m, TSB: 3.5%

Leon Bailey scored in Aston Villa’s 5-0 win against Sheffield United last time out. The Jamaican now has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 appearances. In fact, since GW9, the Midfielder has registered 10 attacking returns(5G 5A), only Watkins has had more among his teammates.

Furthermore, only 7 players have had more goal involvements than Bailey(10) since Gameweek 9, in the entire league. Oddly enough, 10 of Bailey’s 13 attacking returns this season have come at Villa Park. In fact, only Watkins(13), Salah(13), and Gordon(12) have had more attacking returns at home.

Given the fact that three of Villa’s next five games are at home, now might be the right time to bring him in. Besides, 4 of their next 7 have an FDR rating of 2.

Meanwhile, Manchester United(99) have the second-worst record in the league for chances conceded down the right flank, behind only Sheffield United(108). We know that is exactly where Bailey operates.

This exact fixture last season was Unai Emery’s first game in charge of Aston Villa. Leon Bailey scored the opening goal in Villa’s 3-1 win.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Elijah Adebayo vs Sheffield United(H), £4.9m, TSB: 2.6%

Adebayo has been one of the most in-form players in the league. The Luton striker has registered 7 goals in his last 8 league matches. This includes goals against the likes of Chelsea, Brighton, Newcastle, Man City and Arsenal.

As a result of which, the upcoming run of games where the Hatters take on the likes of Man Utd, Liverpool, and Aston Villa shouldn’t put you off from buying him. Six of Adebayo’s nine goals have come against teams in the top half of the table.

Since FPL GW15, only Darwin(10), Richarlison(9), and Isak(9) have had more big chances than the Luton striker(8). In fact, nobody has scored more goals in this period than the Englishman.

Meanwhile, Sheffield United are by far the worst team in the league, in terms of every key stat you could look out for. Not much has improved since Chris Wilder has come in. The Blades are third worst in the league for goals conceded(20) since GW15.

The Blades are fresh from a 5-0 defeat at the hands of Aston Villa. Villa’s centre-forward got an 18-point haul. Adebayo, himself registered a 17-point haul in his last home game. Who is to say that he won’t get another haul in this one?

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW24

FPL GW24 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW24 Scout Picks Based On Stats, Analysis, And Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 24 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW24 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW24 Preview & Tips – Best Forwards, DGW/BGW Planning & More
FPL Gameweek 24 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW24 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts With DGW, BGW Planning
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW24 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW24 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 24 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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