Top FPL Gameweek 24 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, Haaland is back in the mix and the Liverpool boys play Burnley at home which has made captaincy interesting this week. The popular FPL Gameweek 24 captain picks include Haaland, Jota, Darwin Nunez, and Kevin Be Bruyne. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland, or would it be one of the Liverpool boys taking the top spot?

The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

This season the metrics has a 15/23 returns record

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Total metrics points: 356 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10)

FPL GW24 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW24 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Haaland made his return to the starting 11 in GW23 and without a surprise, he takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with 43% of the votes. Diogo Jota is 2nd on the captaincy poll with 17% of the votes. Kevin De Bruyne is 3rd with 8% of the votes. Darwin and Richarlison both of whom play at home in GW24 take the 4th and 5th spot with 6% and 5% votes respectively.

Last week’s hero for many, Phil Foden narrowly misses out on a spot in the FPL Gameweek 24 captaincy metrics as he is ranked 6th in the captaincy poll this week

Further Read: Top FPL GW24 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 24 Captain picks

Haaland takes the top spot, the Man City forward has registered 21 shots inside the box, 10 big chances, and an impressive xG of 5.04 in the last six games(Note: Four of those six games were before the injury)

Darwin is behind Haaland with an xG of 4.09 and an impressive 18 shots inside the box, and 7 big chances in the last six games.

Richarlison is 3rd registering an xG of 3.54 in the last six games along with 5 big chances, and 15 chances created.

Jota is 4th with just one big chance in the last six games and xG of 0.68, he has also created 7 chances in the last six games. Note: Jota too has only 4 starts(352 minutes) averaging 55 minutes per game in the last six games. Jota’s numbers are not a big concern as he’s a clinical finisher typically converting low xG chances into goals.

De Bruyne is last with only an xG of 0.41 in the last six games. Do note: KDB’ last six games data include last season’s data as he has appeared only four times this season. His numbers are understandably lower because in his last six matches(End of 22/23 & 23/24), he has played only 274 minutes(Average of only 45 mins per game). Despite this, he has created 10 chances and registered an xA of 1.44 which reiterates the fact that he’s an elite chance creator with a knack of scoring crucial goals

Further Read: Top FPL GW24 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the reds have registered a healthy xG of 14.75 during the period. They have had 74 shots inside the box and 19 big chances which is also the highest highest amongst the five teams in the table.

Man City are 3rd in the table with an xG of 13.26. The Blues are second for big chances(17) in the last six games amongst the three teams. Since there are two Liverpool assets Man City take the 3rd rank!

Spurs are 5th with an xG of 11.37 and have had 63 shots inside the box and 15 big chances.

Further Read: FPL GW24 Preview & Tips – Best Forwards, DGW/BGW Planning & More

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW24

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole. 

Liverpool have a whopping 93% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 62% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures a top spot for the Reds.

Man City have a 91% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 55% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures they finish above Spurs.

Spurs are last amongst the three teams but still have good odds with an 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 42% chance of scoring 2+ goals

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 24 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 24 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 74% and a 7.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 24.

Haaland’s teammate KDB takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 62% and a points projection of 5.9 against Burnley(H).

Darwin is joint 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 5.2 against Brentford(A). Darwin’s anytime return odds are the second highest but his predicted points are slightly lower because he’s been predicted to play 72 mins by the FFHUB model whereas the others have higher xMins than Darwin.

Richarlison is also 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 56% and a points projection of 5.8.

Lastly, Diogo Jota finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 53% and a points projection of 5.4

Further Read: FPL GW24 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts With DGW, BGW Planning

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 24 Captaincy metric analysis

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric. 

We have been used to seeing Haaland or Salah top the captaincy metrics over the years but we have a new player to top the captaincy metrics, Darwin Nunez!

Darwin takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 7. He’s closely followed by Haaland who finishes with a CRF of 8. Diogo Jota is third with a CRF of 11. KDB takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 13, and Richarlison is last with a CRF of 16.

Before you leave⬇️🙏🏻

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW24

FPL GW24 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW24 Scout Picks Based On Stats, Analysis, And Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 24 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW24 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW24 Preview & Tips – Best Forwards, DGW/BGW Planning & More
FPL Gameweek 24 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW24 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts With DGW, BGW Planning
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW24 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW24 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 24 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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