GW25 proved to be a complicated one for a lot of managers after Haaland blanked and a few other popular choices blanked or failed to start(Mahrez/KDB). However, it’s time for another gameweek with this one being a double/blank gameweek making it an exciting week for FPL managers. In this FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks blog let’s take a look at the top five captain choices and see who tops our highly successful captaincy metrics.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 19/23 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 426 points(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4)
Link to all our FPL GW25 blogs including Fixtures to target, Double and blank game-week news, Predicted GW25 Lineups, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL DGW25/BGW25 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW25 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Saka after a goal last gameweek is the most popular captain choice this week with nearly 42% of the votes. Salah is the second most popular choice with around 30% of votes. Odegaard who got an assist and all three bonus in GW24 is third with 10% votes. Haaland and Nunez are fourth and fifth in the captaincy poll for GW25 with Haaland the only player amongst the five with a single gameweek. The five players to go into the captaincy metrics are Salah, Nunez, Saka, Odegaard and Haaland.
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW25
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 25 Captain picks
Haaland has the highest xG amongst the five players in the last six games with an xG of 3.43. Nunez is not far behind with an xG of 3.26 from 18 shots inside the box and 5 big chances. Saka, Salah and Odegaard all have lower xG than the other two with Saka registering the highest xG amongst the three of them(1.87) from 18 shots inside the box. Salah is fourth with an xG of 1.57 and Odegaard is last with an xG of 1.33 in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW25 Differential Picks to Consider ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Arsenal continue to have a higher volume of shots registering 72 shots inside the box in the last 6 games higher than Liverpool and Man City. However, it’s Man city who have a higher xG(14.03) thanks to their higher volume of big chances(27).
Liverpool are third when compared with the other two teams in terms of xG(10.60) and have one more big chance(15) than Arsenal but they have fewer shots(58) than Arsenal(72) which meant Arsenal (12.49) end up with a higher xG than Liverpool (10.60) in the last six games.
Further Read: When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW25
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
A double gameweek meant the odds for Liverpool and Arsenal were always going to be high and the gap is very tight at the top with Liverpool having a 98% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 89% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the gameweek. Arsenal is very close behind with a 97% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 87% odds of scoring 2+ goals in the gameweek. Man City only have a 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they have a only one game this gameweek
Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW25
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Nunez has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 87%, while his Projected Points stand at 12.0 for the week. Salah has the 3rd highest Anytime Returns Projections at 83% but has the most Projected Points at 12.9 for the week. Odegaard splits the two Liverpool assets with a Anytime Returns Projections of 85%, and a Projected Points of 12.3 for the week.
Saka is only fourth in terms of projected points with a points projection of 11.8, Haaland is last as it’s a single gameweek and he has a points projection of 9.3 against Bournemouth.
Further Read: FPL GW25 Free Hit- Pros & Cons, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 25 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Surprisingly, Nunez edges out teammate Salah to top the metrics with a CRF of 8, Salah is second with a CRF of 10. Odegaard & Haaland finish joint 3rd with a CRF of 11 whereas Saka is only 5th with a CRF of 12 respectively.
Only a CRF of 4 differentiates first place and last place in our captaincy metrics this week which shows how tight the captaincy call is this week. The CRF difference of just 4 between the 5 players is one of the lowest gap in the history of the metrics.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW25
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks From FPL GW25
Top FPL Gameweek 25 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW25 Differential Picks to Consider ahead of Deadline
FPL GW25 Scout Picks with stats and analysis
FPL GW25 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 25 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW25 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points
FPL Double Gameweek 25 Players To Target | FPL DGW25
FPL GW25 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW25 Free Hit- Pros & Cons, Players to Target and Best Drafts
When to Use Your FPL Chips? FPL Chip Strategy Explained
FPL GW25 Predicted Lineups, Injury News and Press Conference Updates
FPL Chip Strategy Video/Stream
Check our FPL Chip Strategy stream which covers all the double/blank gameweek news plus the best gameweeks to use all FPL Chips and more with the latest relevant information. Do consider subscribing to our channel, it would mean a lot to us:)
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Link to all our FPL Gameweek 25 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best wildcard team, chip strategy, differentials, and more.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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