Brighton head into GW21 after comfortably beating Liverpool 3-0 and sit at 7th in the table after 18 games, with some teams around them having played more due to postponements and rearrangements.
In particular, Brighton have some great budget options that, despite some increasing popularity ahead of GW21, remain differential picks. This article will therefore focus on a key dilemma many FPL managers are facing this week: to transfer Mitoma (£5m) or March (£5.1m) in this Gameweek, and whether or not it is worth using a valuable midfielder slot on one of these options. I will also briefly look at Ferguson (£4.5m) and Mac Allister (£5.4m) as alternative Brighton options.
[All stats and maps taken from Fantasy Football Scout]
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Mitoma vs March Statistics
March has started all 18 of Brighton’s matches and has clocked 1533 minutes. However, Mitoma has so far played less than half of that – with just 6 starts and 678 minutes. Therefore, it’s definitely important to look at their figures per 90 minutes as a means of comparison.
Although March understandably beats Mitoma on overall numbers, Mitoma does come out on top for all but two figures per 90 minutes, though in a lot of cases they are very close. March’s 4 assists is a bit of an over-performance, as is Mitoma’s 3 goals, but both players have been good value for money. It is also worth noting that both players have an additional 2 FPL assists not included in this data.
Scout predicts Mitoma to score 16.1 points from GW21-24, while March is predicted 12.5 points.
This is Mitoma’s first season in the Premier League, so it is difficult to draw comparisons between his previous seasons’ numbers. In the Belgium Pro League last season, Union SG took the title, while Mitoma played in 21 out of 34 matches (11 starts) and had 3 goals and 1 assist. In previous seasons in the J1 League, he had 8 goals and 3 assists in 20 matches (13 starts), and 13 goals and 12 assists in 30 matches (11 starts).
In comparison, March does have more goal contributions so far this season than he has during any single football season. In 2021/22, he had 2 assists but no goals in 31 games (17 starts), whereas in the previous season he bagged 2 goals and 1 assist in 21 games (19 starts).
In 678 minutes, Mitoma has had 14 goal attempts (p90 = 1.86), 6 big chances (p90 = 0.80), 7 shots on target (p90 = 0.93), and 58 touches in the penalty area (p90 = 7.70). In terms of assist potential, he has registered 11 chances created (p90 = 1.46), and 3 big chances created (p90 = 0.40).
In his 1533 minutes, March has registered 37 goal attempts (p90 = 2.17), 7 big chances (p90 = 0.41), 13 shots on target (p90 = 0.88), and 74 penalty area touches (p90 = 4.34). He has also created 26 chances (p90 = 1.53), and 6 big chances (p90 = 0.35). Again, both players remain pretty close in data per 90 minutes, with Mitoma coming out on top in the most categories.
It is also worth noting that March’s attacking potential has increased when Trossard has not been on the pitch. For example, from GW17-18 (with Trossard), his xG was just 0.06. However, from GW19-20 (without Trossard), his xG was 0.72. If you wanted to look more into this, take a lot at this post from ALLABOUTFPL on Twitter:
Mitoma’s Maps
- Mitoma plays on the left-hand side as a winger
March’s Maps
- March plays on the opposite side to Mitoma, taking up a similar role – Mitoma does have a greater presence in the penalty box however
Other Brighton FPL Options
Mac Allister (£5.4m) is slightly more expensive than Mitoma and March, but he does have added set piece threat being on penalties and free kicks. He has so far accumulated 66 points from 15 starts, with 5 goals (xG = 3.76) – 3 of which have been penalties. He does fall behind in assist potential, registering none so far (xA = 1.21), creating 14 chances and just 1 big chance. Scout also predicts him to have the most points from GW21-24 – 14.7.
As just a £4.5m forward, Ferguson has offered great value recently, with 2 goals (xG = 1.11) and 2 assists (xA = 0.23). He has started just the last 2 of Brighton’s games and there is less data for him, as he has played just 178 minutes in total.
Brighton’s Statistics and Fixture Analysis
Brighton have hit brilliant goal-scoring form under De Zerbi. Among all teams, they are:
- 4th for goals scored (35)
- 8th for xG (27.67)
- 8th for goal attempts (246)
- 7th for shots inside the box (169)
- 7th for big chances (47)
- 5th for shots on target (94)
Therefore, outside of the top teams that have more premium options such as Liverpool, Tottenham, Man City, and Arsenal, it is clear that the Brighton team has offered great value for money so far – just as players like Almiron, Mitrovic, and Rashford have. They have over-performed their expected goals, but this also does show how clinical Brighton have been.
Their data within the last six gameweeks puts them at around the same position when compared to other teams. However, something worth noting is that they have scored the most of any side (16), and are joint-1st for shots on target (35) over the last six gameweeks. Considering their great form, their upcoming fixtures also highlight that these budget assets could continue to provide good points over the coming gameweeks:
| lei | BOU | cry | FUL | new | WHU |
Brighton have some very favourable fixtures coming up against defences that have struggled so far this season. Although Newcastle’s defence has been one of the best, considering the other fixtures they have in between this and Mitoma and March’s budget price, I think it is definitely still worth having one of these cheap options when they can easily be benched if needed. It is also worth noting that, should Newcastle beat Southampton in the Carabao Cup semi-final, this GW25 fixture will be a blank – so something worth considering if you were thinking of having more than one Brighton asset.
In particular, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are among the bottom five teams in terms of chances conceded on the left flank. This is particularly relevant to March’s return potential, as he operates on Brighton’s right-hand side.
As for Mitoma on the left-hand side, Leicester and Bournemouth – Brighton’s next two fixtures – are among the bottom five teams for chances conceded on the right flank.
Upcoming Matchups for Mitoma and March
| Brighton’s next opponents | Chances conceded on Mitoma’s Flank in last 6 matches | Chances Conceded on March’s Flank in last 6 matches |
| GW21- Leicester(A) | 24 | 15 |
| GW22- Bournemouth(H) | 23 | 21 |
| GW23- Crystal Palace(A) | 7 | 19 |
| GW24- Fulham(H) | 8 | 6 |
Key Stat- Over the last 6 matches, Leicester and Bournemouth are Top 2 for Chances conceded on right(Mitoma’s flank) in the league.
Mitoma vs March: The Verdict
Overall, this is a very tricky one to predict, and is a decision that comes down to personal preference for a lot of managers. It’s a little reminiscent of the Dennis vs King arguments last season, and I do think that, looking at the statistics, both players warrant great consideration.
Currently, my personal preference is Mitoma given his slightly better figures per 90 minutes. However, I still think March is a solid choice, and he does have more transfers in than Mitoma due to his brilliant form. I would personally avoid a double-up at this stage given the chances that Brighton could blank in GW25.
I would keep an eye on Mac Allister and his positioning over the next few gameweeks, and I also think that Ferguson could prove a very good pick at his price range.
[kofi]
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Sophie Wellington
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