Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW27

This week sees a big blank for Arsenal and Liverpool, who had a huge double last week and some great upcoming fixtures. Therefore, the Free Hit is very popular for FPL GW27. With this in mind, I will be comparing:

• Sterling vs Mahrez
• Mee vs Roberts vs Tarkowski
• Kilman vs Dier vs Livramento

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 27 Blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit team, FPL chip strategy, players to target, differentials, and more.

[All stats and maps taken from FFSCOUT]

Sterling (£10.7m) vs Mahrez (£8.7m)

Premier League leaders City face a struggling Everton in GW27, who currently sit at 16th with only 6 wins so far this season, so they are definitely a team to target if you’re playing the Free Hit. When they visited Goodison in November, they won 3-0.

Sterling has scored an impressive 10 goals so far this season, now sitting at 3rd in the Golden Boot race. Mahrez has had less game time, but is currently in great form, scoring in last week’s loss to Tottenham and 5-0 victory against Sporting in the UCL.

Sterling vs Mahrez: The Stats

	Sterling	Mahrez
Starts / Minutes	16 / 1491	10 / 1014
Total Points	110	96
Goals (Pens)	10 (2)	8 (4)
Big Chances / Scored	18 / 9	9 / 7
Goal Attempts	45	38
Shots on Target	24	15
Penalty Area Touches	161	81
npxG / per 90	7.07 / 0.41	3.55 / 0.29
xG / per 90	9.43 / 0.54	6.70 / 0.55
Assists / FPL Assists	1 / 2	4 / 1
Chances Created	29	30
Big Chances Created	4	5
Crosses / Successful	36 / 8	73 / 16
xA / per 90	3.50 / 0.20	3.29 / 0.27
npxG + xA / per 90	10.6 / 0.61	6.80 / 0.56
xG + xA / per 90	12.93 / 0.74	9.99 / 0.83
Goal Involvement	29	36
FPL Goal Involvement	34	39

Both have some very impressive numbers! In terms of expected stats:

• Sterling sits at 4th among midfielders for xG; Mahrez also makes the top 10
• Sterling is 5th for npxG among midfielders; but Mahrez does fall behind in this stat – he does have less game time though
• Both are among the top 10 midfielders for xGI per 90

Sterling’s Maps

Mahrez’s Maps

City Stats at a Glance

W / D / L	20 / 3 / 3 (1st)
Goals	63 (2nd)
xG	56.15 (2nd)
Big Chances	81 (2nd)
Goal Attempts	480 (2nd)
Shots Inside Box	336 (1st)
Shots on Target	168 (1st)
Crosses / Successful	615 / 121 (1st/3rd)
Goals Conceded	17 (1st)
xG Conceded	17.66 (1st)
Clean Sheets	15 (1st)
Shots on Target Conceded	61 (1st)

City are vying with Liverpool to be the best attacking team, so their assets are definitely worth investing in if you’re on a Free Hit.

eve

MUN

cry

BHA

bur

LIV

wol

WAT

If you’re Free Hitting, I think a City attacker is an absolute must against a struggling Everton side. If both start, then both definitely have the potential to haul.

FPL GW27 Comparison- Sterling vs Mahrez: The Verdict

From the data, both are very promising. Sterling has had a brilliant season thus far, and if he gets the start at Everton then there’s huge potential.

However, Mahrez, at £2m less, is also a great pick, and does beat Sterling for xGI per 90. When he’s playing, he is also City’s first-choice penalty taker, which really boosts his potential. He has hit great form recently, so it’s not surprising that a lot of players are backing him to continue this.

Overall, I really like both picks on the Free Hit, and if I were using the chip I would gamble on Pep Roulette by bringing both in. I’m not personally sure which player is most likely to be rotated, but now the title race is heating up Pep may play a very strong team.

Further Read: FPL GW27 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide

Mee (£5.1m) vs Roberts (£4.5m) vs Tarkowski (£4.9m)

Mee vs Roberts vs Tarkowski: The Stats

	Mee	Roberts	Tarkowski
Starts / Minutes	19 / 1710	6 / 555	21 / 1890
Total Points	56	26	57
Clean Sheets	6	4	5
Goals Conceded	24	2	29
Goals	3	0	1
Big Chances / Scored	3 / 1	0	5 / 1
Goal Attempts	18	2	16
Shots on Target	4	0	5
Penalty Area Touches	30	3	42
npxG / per 90	2.71 / 0.14	0.10 / 0.02	2.30 / 0.11
Assists / FPL Assists	0	1 / 0	2 / 0
Chances Created	5	5	4
Big Chances Created	2	0	0
Crosses / Successful	4 / 1	7 / 2	1 / 0
xA / per 90	0.11 / 0.01	0.51 / 0.08	0.63 / 0.03
npxG + xA / per 90	2.82 / 0.14	0.61 / 0.09	2.93 / 0.13
Goal Involvement	16	20	17
FPL Goal Involvement	16	20	17

Unfortunately the data is skewed, as Roberts has had considerably less minutes. However, his movements and performances have been quite promising, offering some assist potential. He also picked up 2 bonus points against Spurs, so in these low-scoring games he can really boost your points. He’s also the cheapest out of the three.

Mee has scored 3 goals, so there’s defninitely a promising set piece threat. His expected goal stats are slightly higher than Tarkowski’s, but overall their xGI is pretty level.

Tarkowski clearly also has a set piece threat, and beats Mee on penalty area touches, shots on target, and big chances.

Mee’s Maps

Roberts’ Maps

Tarkowski’s Maps

Burnley Stats at a Glance

W / D / L	3 / 11 / 9 (18th)
Goals	21 (19th)
xG	22.43 (19th)
Big Chances	30 (17th)
Goal Attempts	246 (19th)
Shots Inside Box	152 (18th)
Shots on Target	75 (19th)
Crosses / Successful	453 (8th)
Goals Conceded	29 (7th)
xG Conceded	33.66 (11th)
Clean Sheets	7
Shots on Target Conceded	101 (7th)

Burnley’s attacking stats put them towards the bottom in the league, but their defensive numbers are a different story. They are up there in the top-half of the table on defensive stats, and recently we have really seen some strong performances. This looks really promising for these players’ clean sheet points.

cry, LEI

CHE

bre

SOU

MCI

nor

whu

WOL

What stands out is the DGW27 – Crystal Palace and Leicester are the two teams who have conceded the most attempts from set plays, so this really looks promising for Mee and Tarkowski’s set piece threat – though overall Burnley’s attacking stats have been quite poor.

After their double gameweek, their fixtures are a mixed bag, so just bringing in a Burnley defender for a free hit would be a good idea. If it is for a transfer, then be aware that it may not be the best long-term pick when you consider the other upcoming doubles. However, this could change depending on your Wildcard strategy.

Mee vs Roberts vs Tarkowski: The Verdict

This is a tough decision, and one that you can justify going for either pick.

We have seen less of Roberts, but as the cheapest option he is really exciting and takes up the position of an attacking full back – he also gained 2 bonus points against Spurs so that definitely goes in his favour. He may have a slight rotation risk, so that’s a little off-putting, but hopefully his recent performances mean that he secures a starting spot.

Given Leicester and Palace’s set-piece defending, I would be really tempted by Mee or Tarkowski. Both are nailed in a Burnley side who have hit great form and I think either would also be a great option for DGW27.

Further Read: FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Target in Your Team | Free Hit Special

Kilman (£4.6m) vs Dier (£4.6m) vs Livramento (£4.3m)

With so many premiums to fit in on a Free Hit, it’s also important to maximise the budget, and choosing one of these players could really help with that. This comparison is also helpful for a more long-term pick, with all three having double gameweeks soon.

Kilman vs Dier vs Livramento: The Stats

*Kilman’s stats up to the Leicester game

	Kilman*	Dier	Livramento
Starts / Minutes	24 / 2159	21 / 1812	19 / 1725
Total Points	90	71	67
Clean Sheets	9	8	6
Goals Conceded	18	22	28
Goals	1	0	1
Big Chances / Scored	3 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1
Goal Attempts	12	6	9
Shots on Target	4	3	3
Penalty Area Touches	20	13	35
npxG / per 90	1.02 / 0.04	0.50 / 0.02	1.33 / 0.07
Assists / FPL Assists	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1
Chances Created	3	5	15
Big Chances Created	0	3	2
Crosses / Successful	2 / 0	0 / 0	49 / 8
xA / per 90	0.31 / 0.01	0.91 / 0.04	1.61 / 0.08
npxG + xA / per 90	1.33 / 0.05	1.41 / 0.07	2.94 / 0.14
Goal Involvement	4	0	10
FPL Goal Involvement	9	4	14

In terms of goal potential, Dier falls slightly behind Kilman and Livramento, and Livramento comes out on top. He also beats both assets on expected assists and overal xGI.

Kilman’s assist potential is not as high as the other two, and overall he comes out bottom for xGI.

Kilman’s Maps

Dier’s Maps

Livramento’s Maps

Wolves vs Spurs vs Southampton at a Glance

	Wolves	Spurs	Southampton
W / D / L	12 / 4 / 8	12 / 3 / 9	7 / 11 / 7
Goals	23	31	32
xG	25.27	35.78	31.76
Big Chances	37	55	42
Goal Attempts	250	297	323
Shots Inside Box	150	187	193
Shots on Target	83	114	116
Crosses / Successful	363 / 81	424 / 104	431 / 87
Goals Conceded	18	32	37
xG Conceded	30.71	32.71	34.83
Clean Sheets	9	8	6
Shots on Target Conceded	100	103	110

Southampton are the poorest team defensively, falling behind on all stats shown in the table. Despite this, their attacking potential is relatively high, along with Spurs.

Wolves, on the other hand, have a very strong defence. Although Tottenham have one less clean sheet than Wolves, they have conceded considerably more goals, and their defensive assets have been pretty frustrating for FPL managers. However, Wolves’ attack is less desirable.

Wolves	Spurs	Southampton
whu	lee	NOR
CRY, WAT	EVE	avl, NEW
eve	mun, bha	WAT
LEE	WHU	bur
AVL	NEW	lee
new	avl	CHE
MCI	BHA	ARS
bur	bre	bha

After their tricky game against West Ham, Wolves look forward to a really favourable run of games. Their double against Palace and Watford will definitely be one to target, and afterwards they face some struggling teams where the chance of a clean sheet will be fairly high.

Spurs’ next two games are against struggling sides, so we may be hopeful for a strong performance – like the one they pulled out against City. However, their surprising defeat to Burnley shows us that they have been inconsistent. I think Dier would be a good choice on the Free Hit for GW27, but in the long term I would personally focus on Spurs’ attacking assets.

Southampton’s favourable fixture run, including a very appealing double, has really put their assets at the forefront of FPL discussions. Although their defensive numbers haven’t been as strong, they will soon face some of the weaker attacks in the league.

Kilman vs Dier vs Livramento: The Verdict

Livramento is a very popular asset who I think would be a good hold over these next few weeks. I’m not sure how ‘nailed’ he is in the starting line-up, but if he gets regular starts then at £4.3m he’s a bargain who will really enable you to get the big hitters in. I think he’s a great pick for this week’s Free Hit, and also if you are Wildcarding into these upcoming doubles. Out of the three, he’s definitely the most exciting and is my favourite asset – but be aware that his starting position is not certain.

I do think Kilman is a cheap way into the Wolves defence if you need it, and he offers some set piece threat that could surprise. I still slightly prefer Saïss as an option, but Kilman is only 3 set piece attempts and goal attempts behind him – he is also level with him on shots inside the box – so I do think he is a viable route into the Wolves defence for these upcoming games.

Dier does have some great games coming up, but with the defensive options we have I think other assets should be prioritised. On the Free Hit, he could be a great differential against Leeds, but as a long-term option I prefer Livramento and Kilman.

Overall, Livramento is the most explosive in his full-back position, but Kilman is part of a stronger defence with that set piece threat – both are great options in my opinion to navigate the next few weeks, and would be strong Wildcard picks. Again, bear in mind that Livramento may not be nailed in the startling line-up!

[kofi]

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 27:

FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Target in Your Team | Free Hit Special
FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell
Best FPL GW27 Wildcard Draft Ahead of FPL Gameweek 27 Deadline
Ideal FPL GW27 Free Hit Draft and Players to Target | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW27 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW27 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
FPL GW26 Fixture Wise Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL DGW28 And FPL DGW29 Announcement and Plans ahead
Best FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season

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