FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Target in Your Team | Free Hit Special

FPL GW27 is a crucial week with a lot of managers playing their free hit teams or looking for one-week punts before wildcarding in GW28. In this week’s differentials blog, we’ll be going in detail with our picks as we analyze nine differential options to consider in FPL GW27 irrespective of your chip strategy.

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 27 Blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including the best free hit team, FPL chip strategy, players to target, differentials, and more.

FPL GW27 Differential Picks (<10% TSB)

Riyad Mahrez vs Everton(A), TSB: 4.2% £8.7

If there is anyone that’s a perfect option for GW27 then it’s Mahrez and the best thing is that he’s not even owned by 5% of the managers. Man City are playing Everton and will look to bounce back strongly after a defeat to Spurs on Saturday. Now with the title race heating up, Pep will look to go all out with his strongest 11 and will try to score as many as possible to bridge their goal difference which is four goals less than that of Liverpool now who scored 6 goals against Leeds.

Everton poor defensive numbers:

• 11 goals conceded in the last six games(third worst)
• 8.75 xGC conceded in the last six games

Man City attacking numbers:

• 104 Shots on goal(second highest), 72 shots inside the box(joint highest), 18 big chances(second highest)
• 12 goals scored in the last six games with an xG of 13.49 both second highest

Mahrez numbers over the last six games

• Shots on goal: 14
• Shots on target: 6
• Big chances: 5
• xG: 4.04
• Goals: 5
• Assists: 2

As you see there is a clear miss-match in the numbers and adding to this the penalty appeal of Mahrez adds value to his selection in our team. Mahrez has also started 5/6 games which pretty much makes it certain that he’ll start against Everton.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell

Jadon Sancho vs Watford(H), TSB: 2.8%, £8.9

A lot was expected out of Sancho when he first signed for Manchester United but after starting slow, Sacho is beginning to prove his real worth. Over the last three games, no player except Bruno(24) has scored more FPL points than Sancho(23) scoring a goal and raking up two assists during the period.

Sancho vs Bruno numbers in the last three games

• Shots: 6 vs 7( Sancho numbers left; Bruno numbers right)
• Shots on target: 4 vs 5
• Shots inside box: 3 vs 3
• xG: 1.65 vs 1.7
• Big chances: 3 vs 3
• Chances created: 5 vs 9
• xA: 1.61 vs 1.66
• Big chances created: 3 vs 3
• Goals: 1 vs 2
• Assists: 2 vs 1

Sancho is increasingly growing confident in the final third over the last few games and his numbers over the last three games are pretty similar to Bruno who himself has been relishing his role slightly higher up the pitch. Although Watford will look to sit back defend under Roy Hodgson, Man United and Sancho have the quality to break the Watford defense down.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell

Luke Shaw(5.0) vs Watford, TSB: 13.0%

It looks almost confirmed Luke Shaw is back as the first choice left back at the club as he has started the last 4 league games and also the Champions League fixture against Atletico Madrid. Over the last 4 league games, Shaw has 2 assists(Highest among defenders), 9 key passes(most among defenders), xA-0.72(4th among defenders) which suggests that a big haul is definitely coming soon.

Match up Alert:

Since Ragnick took over(from GW15), Manchester United have the 6th best Minutes/xGC conceded(82.9) in the league. During this same time frame, Watford have just scored the least goals in the league(5 goals).

Note: Luke Shaw is a good option only if you are on Free Hit for GW27. We don’t recommend Shaw as a long term option as there are tough fixtures for Manchester United from GW28- City(A), Tottenham(H), Liverpool(A).

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Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW27 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 22/26 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate. Stay tuned for the GW27 Captaincy metric to see who tops it.

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”38″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

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Kyle Walker-Peters vs Norwich(H), TSB: 0.8% £4.8

After having scored that goal against Man City, KWP has grown in confidence as a player and has certainly caught our eyes. In the last three games, he has had 5 shots on goal, all within the box, two on target with an xG of 0.43, he has also made four key passes, created one big chance with an xG of 0.7.

Over the last three games, Norwich have conceded 11 goals which is the third-most in the league, and have also tend to concede a lot of chances on the flanks rather than through the middle which will prove to be a good chance for KWP to get an attacking return. Southampton are also a very good team at home scoring seven goals in their last three home games with an impressive xG of 5.41, this trend will look to continue in GW27 against Norwich.

Further Read: FPL GW27 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider ~ Six different drafts

Ben Mee vs Crystal Palace(A), Leicester(H), TSB:1.4%, £4.8

Burnley are the talk of the town this week, as the Clarets are the only team to have two fixtures this week. Much to the delight of FPL managers, they have hit form in recent weeks as well. Sean Dyche’s men beat Brighton 3-0 and Spurs 1-0 last week and made it 4 clean sheets in 6 matches. Furthermore, they have only given away two goals in that period. Ben Mee also was amongst the goals scoring the only goal in the 1-0 victory over Spurs.

As we can see from the above graphic, Ben Mee is someone who has been on the end of opportunities in front of goal. Only three defenders have had more shots in the box than the Burnley skipper this season. The best part about the two fixtures the Clarets have is the fact that they are taking on two teams who are the worst at defending set-pieces. Leicester are top for goals conceded from set-pieces, with 13 and Crystal Palace are second, with 12 goals given away.

Even after this double GW the Clarets have good fixtures. In fact, three out of their five fixtures post FPL GW27 have a FDR rating of 2.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell

Wout Werghost vs Crystal Palace(A), Leicester(H), TSB:3.9%, £6.5

Werghost is the second Burnley player to make our differential list this week. He is also one of the best captaincy options this week. Therefore, regardless of your chip strategy, Weghorst is a must-have differential for FPL GW27 and beyond.

The Dutchman has already registered a goal and 2 assists in his 5 matches thus far. He has been involved in almost everything that Burnley do going forward. He helped Burnley come with up with only their second win of the season, at the Amex stadium. The forward scored a stunning opening goal in a comprehensive 3-0 win. He added an assist and could have had another if it weren’t for a close offside call.

One of the biggest problems FPL managers have had this season is to find forwards who deliver points. Believe it or not, Michail Antonio is still the highest points scorer among forwards. That is despite him registering 7 blanks in his last 11 matches. Weghorst has the potential to fill that void. He not only has good fixtures coming up, but he also has two more double gameweeks to come in the future. Therefore he is a long-term solution for managers!

Further Read: FPL GW27 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider ~ Six different drafts

Raheem Sterling vs Everton(A), TSB: 3.9%, £10.7

Raheem Sterling has seemingly won over Pep once again after a string of good performances. In the last four gameweeks, Raz has scored three goals and registered two assists for a total of 32 points which is the second highest amongst midfielders bettered only by Salah who is on a league of his own.

Sterling numbers over the last four gameweeks

• Shots on goal: 19
• Shots on target: 7
• Shots inside box: 10
• Big chances: 6
• xG: 3.36
• Goals: 3
• Assists: 2
• Chances created: 4
• xA: 0.66

He’s a little bit more nailed compared to Mahrez which makes it worth the extra investment. With Everton defence all over the place, Man City will look to wreck havoc and this could be the week the elusive Sterling haul from the previous seasons could return.

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Ultra-Differential Picks for FPL GW27(<1% TSB):

Joe Willock vs Brentford(A), TSB:0.7%, £5.7

Joe Willock has been racking up some very interesting numbers in recent weeks. Newcastle have been one of the standout teams in the league in the last 4 weeks. It is since Eddie Howe started deploying the 4-3-3 formation with Joelinton and Willock as attacking central midfielders with Jonjo Shelvey sitting deeper. Let us look some fascinating numbers!

The above numbers are startling to say the least. The midfielder has essentially had more shots in last 4 matches than first 22 matches combined. Most of the attacking numbers are similar. Willock is a bit of a streak player and he showed last season what he can do if he goes on one of the those runs. He scored in seven consecutive matches last season. Both stats and eye test suggests he can go on one of those runs again.

As far as his numbers when compared to other players in the league in the last 4 GWs, he has had fifth highest number of shots in the entire league. Newcastle are the only team to double in both GWs 28 and 29. As a result of which, having their assets is vital. Willock is by far the best option in our opinion.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell

Dan Burn vs Brentford(A), TSB: 0.3%, £4.4

Newcastle have a great run of fixtures with the magpies having a double both in GW28 and GW29 making them a good team to target. Now blostered with new signings and having found some stablity under Howe, we can surely start considering Newcastle assets in FPL. Our best choice from the defence being, Dan Burn.

Burn has settled in nicely and could be a shrewd pick in FPL considering his height and set piece potential could offer some attacking returns as well along with the CS potential. Their opponents in GW27 Brentford have scored just 8 goals(3rd worst), 12 big chances(14th best) in the league since GW16.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 27:

FPL Gameweek 27 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold or Sell
Best FPL GW27 Wildcard Draft Ahead of FPL Gameweek 27 Deadline
Ideal FPL GW27 Free Hit Draft and Players to Target | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW27 Free Hit Team & Drafts to Consider | Free Hit Guide
FPL GW27 Top Transfer Ins And Outs | Transfer Trends & Combinations
FPL GW26 Fixture Wise Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL DGW28 And FPL DGW29 Announcement and Plans ahead
Best FPL Chip Strategy For The Remainder Of The Season

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