GW4 was the first round this season where the captaincy didn’t give out the best results because of lack of data for Ronaldo (who I did captain, ignoring my own model). Our captaincy model is yet to give out a blank this season though, as we are 4/4 when it comes to our top pick returning points. 5 times in a row? Let’s have a look at the Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks based on our own metric. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 5 blogs.
FPL GW5 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
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Another Gameweek, another Salah run-away poll. The Egyptian leads our captain’s poll with 70.58% of the total votes. Cristiano Ronaldo only managed 13.32% of your votes, even after scoring a brace of goals in the league and following it up with another well-taken goal in the Champions League.
Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku comes in third with 2.98% of the votes. Salah’s teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in behind Lukaku with 2.68% of your votes, as Manchester City’s Ferran Torres (2.58%) rounds up our top 5 picks of Gameweek 5.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
Mohammed Salah comes out on top for Gameweek 5. Salah leads the way with a total of 14 Shots Inside the Box and has been at the end of 4 Big Chances. The Egyptian also leads the way when it comes to Expected Goals, with Salah mustering an xG of 2.64 in the last 4 Gameweeks.
With an xG of 2.35, Romelu Lukaku comes in behind Salah. The new Chelsea signing has had 11 Shots Inside the Box and 3 Big Chances in the 3 games he has played.
Manchester City’s false-9, Ferran Torres has had 10 Shots Inside the Box and 3 Big Chances in total as he rounds up the podium places when it comes to Player’s Outlying Numbers with an xG of 2.01.
Cristiano Ronaldo has only played 1 game and our model will continue to downplay his stats since there is not enough data yet. Even then, his outlying numbers of 5 Shots Inside the Box, 2 Big Chances, and an xG of 1.40 from the only game he has played in the league scream of explosion in the future too.
Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in behind Ronaldo at the final place, with just 3 Shots Inside the Box, 0 Big Chances, and an xG of 0.38. However, it’s important to note that the full-back has created the most chances (20) of our picks, and has the most assist threat of all the players being analyzed here.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 5 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 4 games. A total of 73 Shots Inside the Box and 16 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 11.16.
Title-holders Manchester City come in behind Liverpool with 56 Shots Inside the Box and 16 Big Chances in Total resulting in an xG of 11.05, just a bit behind Liverpool.
Manchester United come in at third with 42 Shots Inside the Box, 12 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 6.05.
Champions League winners Chelsea come in last with just 32 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances in total, and an xG of 5.91.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Wildcard | Teams & Players to Target, Tips, and Draft
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW5
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Southampton, who are facing Manchester City this week, have the weakest odds this week. CS odds of just 7% pretty much tells you that the bookies really fancy Manchester City to go out all guns blazing in this match. A staggering 53% chance of Norwich conceding more than 2.5 goals, only makes the matters worse for the Saints.
Crystal Palace come in behind Southampton, with just a 9% chance of keeping a CS. They are also not expected to keep Liverpool out a lot, with the bookies giving them a significant 49% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week.
West Ham United have also been given low chances of returning a clean sheet. Being given only an 18% chance of keeping a CS, West Ham United aren’t expected to keep Manchester United out. Confidence in their defence seems to be low, having been given a 27% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals.
Tottenham, coming from the back of a pretty dire performance against Crystal Palace in GW4, have been given a 23% chance of returning a clean sheet against London rivals Chelsea. Having been given just a 20% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals, the bookies do not seem to think that Spurs would easily roll over against Chelsea this week.
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
The popular week of the week, Mohammed Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 75%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 8.2, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Teammate Alexander-Arnold comes in behind the Egyptian, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 75% and Projected Points at 6.6.
Cristiano Ronaldo comes in third behind the Liverpool duo, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 64% and Projected Points at 6.1.
Ferran Torres comes in just behind Ronaldo, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 61% and Projected Points at 5.9.
Lastly, Romelu Lukaku stands last, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 49% and Projected Points at a mere 4.7.
Further Read: FPL GW5 Team reveals, Strategies, Captaincy, and Tips
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 5 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
As highlighted in the Community Votes, it’s Mohammed Salah who clearly tops the Metric with a CRF of 5, which is a very low score, meaning the captaincy model is really high on Salah this week.
Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in behind Salah with a CRF of 10, highlighting how Liverpool are clear favorites against Crystal Palace this week.
Ferran Torres finishes in the podium places with a CRF of 11, as Manchester City are expected to win big against Southampton this week.
The two big signings Cristiano Ronaldo (15) and Romelu Lukaku (17) round up our analysis for Gameweek 5.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 5:
FPL GW5 Value Picks to Consider in Your Teams
FPL GW5 Team reveals, Strategies, Captaincy, and Tips
Gameweek 5 Analysis – Players To Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead Of FPL GW5
FPL GW5 Wildcard | Teams & Players to Target, Tips, and Draft
FPL GW5 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW4
FPL GW5 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
FPL GW5 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 5 Deadline
FPL GW5 Guide To Post Wildcard Strategy | Life After Playing Wildcard
Best Forwards to replace Antonio and Calvert-Lewin | FPL Gameweek 5
FPL GW4 Sunday Stats Review | Leeds vs Liverpool
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 5?
We’ll be covering fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 5, differential picks, GW 5 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek five, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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