It looks like the three most popular captaincy options for GW6 are clear: Salah, Ronaldo, and Antonio. If you don’t know who deserves the armband the most you’ll probably read some comparisons, check some metrics and see some opinions on who to captain. Well, if you clicked to read this post, I have terrible news for you: there is a fourth differential captain option, which is arguably even better than those three. It’s TAA(Trent Alexander-Arnold), if fully fit, obviously.
Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW6 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a 100% record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW5 with a double digit haul. Stay tuned for the GW5 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 6 blogs.
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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.
Why TAA could be a great captaincy choice in FPL GW6?
‘But if you take a Liverpool player, then why him and not Salah’, you ask. There are some tactical and statistical reasons for it, so let’s get into it. Let’s talk Brentford.
Usually, when Liverpool play a newly-promoted side there is no such question as who to captain. Brentford is an interesting case though: the Bees conceded only two goals from 3.37 xG (data from Understat) in five first games. Thomas Frank’s team is the second-best in the league for xGA — behind Man City and right ahead of Liverpool. Let’s have a closer look at how they approach their opponents defensively.
Frank uses 3-5-2 with Toney and Mbeumo upfront and relentless pressing. That was a surprise since day one of the Premier League, but Brentford’s pressing is very aggressive. There is a metric that measures the intensity of the pressing called PPDA, or Passes Per Defensive Action (some metrics look at the opposition half, some at other areas) — the lesser the number, the more aggressive your pressing is. The Bees press their opponents as intensively as Man United (both at 10.31 passes per defensive action) and more aggressive than even Southampton (who usually lead the chart alongside Man City, Liverpool and Leeds).
Data source: Source: Understat
When Brentford get the ball they don’t think too much: striking counter with a shot is the best option. 86% of their shots came after 10 seconds after Brentford got the possession. It is by a mile the best result in the league that averages 62%. These impressive numbers in defence mostly come from their ability to press and opponents’ inability to break that press. The best team in that component who Brentford played were Brighton — and the Bees lost that match, even though the draw would be more fair of a result.
How can we measure the team’s ability to break the press and build the suspension with the ball? Well, using the same metric — PPDA — but for the opposition now (OPPDA). Brighton sit fifth with an index of 14.51. All other teams Brentford faced are significantly worse (Everton and Crystal Palace are the two worst sides in the league for OPPDA, Arsenal and Wolves sit in the middle). And now we look at Liverpool: they average a fascinating number of 22.23 passes per defensive action from the opponent. This is affected by the opposition’s playing style, two red cards, and overall ability, but they produced a solid 18.57 OPPDA last season (again second behind only Man City).
Source: Understat
Liverpool can easily break the press and create goal-scoring opportunities after they did it, and numbers agree with that. Now let’s look at tactical details and why not just pick Salah if Brentford pressing won’t be as useful and powerful as before?
In that aforementioned 3-5-2 formation, there are quite big dissimilarities between wing-backs. RWB is Sergi Canos (originally an attacking midfielder), LWB is Rico Henry (more of a classic full-back in a back four). When Brentford have the ball their formation looks as if they had four defenders — Henry stays back while Canos gets in attacking positions due to the lack of creative players in that squad.
The reason why Salah is in danger of blanking this gameweek is simple: the defensive-minded player in Rico Henry will make Mo suffer (defensively Brentford’s structure is not ideal but strong on their left). Trent, as opposed, as the main Liverpool playmaker, will get the ball in the comfortable areas in half-spaces and create from there. The advantage Alexander-Arnold will get on Saturday is Henry paying close attention to Salah (to not let him use the space between LCB and LWB — pretty common picture when Liverpool play against teams with three at the back), hence, more TAA on the ball. High probability of clean sheet, bonus points, 2.51 xA (most in the league), set pieces, and the status of the main creative player on the ball in the Reds’ team: Trent as a great differential captain for GW6. Are you with me now?
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 5:
FPL GW5 Fixture wise Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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Artem Gekht
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