We are just 12 days away from the start of a brand new Fantasy Premier League season. This is the time in which we all juggle around with our FPL squads before completely dismantling it just before the start of the season. The key to doing well in FPL is having the right mix of template players and differential players. The template players are easy to pick. However, to have the right options from the latter category is a bit more tricky. But that is why we are here. In this FPL Differentials 2021/22 FPL Season blog we will look at the best differential picks in the long run for that opening FPL team!
Please Note: Player ownership are from the time of writing and are subject to change as we move close to the deadline
Before that do check out our FPL Team Structure Guide series where we make a case for each of the structures including big at the back ~ A Guide to FPL Team Structure | 21/22 FPL Season (Pre Wildcard)
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
Few of our best FPL differentials calls in the 2020/21 FPL season:
FPL Differentials for 2021-22 FPL Season(<=10%)
Cesar Azpilicueta £6.0, TSB: 3.5%
A lot of managers have looked at Chelsea’s fixtures at the start of the season and ignored their defenders. But the devil is in the details. It is in these games where Thomas Tuchel’s side were at their best defensively.
| Opponent | Goals conceded |
| Arsenal | 1 |
| ManCity(3) | 1 |
| Real Madrid(2) | 1 |
| Liverpool | 0 |
| Spurs | 0 |
| ManUtd | 0 |
| Atletico Madrid(2) | 0 |
To put things in perspective, the Blues conceded 3 goals from 11 matches(from the table). Not just against the big teams, Chelsea’s defensive record under their new manager in the league is very good. The West London side conceded fewer goals, conceded fewer big chances conceded, kept more clean sheets than any other team.
Among all the defenders from Chelsea, Azpilicueta is the safest option to choose from, as he is guaranteed to play the vast majority of the games.
Despite not getting a lot of attacking returns, the Chelsea captain was the third-highest points scorer among defenders from FPL GW20-GW38. This is because of his ability to pick up bonus points. Only Alexander Arnold(22) amassed more bonus points in that time than Azpilicueta(11).
Further Read: Check out our Best Premium Defenders(6.0 Mil+) To Target For The 2021/22 FPL Season and Best Mid-Priced Defenders(5 to 5.5 Mil) To Target For The 2021/2022 FPL Season, FPL Budget Defenders (£4.5) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season
in case you haven’t already. Here is a link to all our FPL Defenders blog for your reference.
Jack Harrison £6.0, TSB: 5.3%
One of the constant debates that went on in the FPL community as the season went on was to choose between Raphinia and Jack Harrison. The former ended the season with 133 points and the latter with 160. It is to be noted that Harrison played more minutes(2846) than his compatriot(2358).
Raphinia’s ownership in FPL this season as of now is 23.4%, which is significantly more than that of the Englishman. Is this disparity warranted? Let us take a look at some data.
As we can see there isn’t much to choose between the two. But we as managers tend to get trapped into the eye test too much. Raphinia clearly is more pleasing on the eye, while Harrison just goes about his business without much fuss.
Of all players in this differentials blog, Harrison is the most important one to consider for FPL managers. The reason we say this is at some point all of us are going to be in a situation where we have to save that £0.5. This is where managers who have Raphinia in their team can replace him with Harrison without any hesitation.
Further Read: Check out our Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£7 – £9.5 Mil) Analysis and Comparison Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, FPL Premium Midfielders (£10 Mil+) Analysis For 2021/22 Season, FPL Budget Midfielders (£5 – £6.5Mil) Analysis For 2021/22 Season in case you haven’t already. Here is also a link to all our FPL Midfielders and FPL position-wise player analysis blogs.
Raheem Sterling £11.0, TSB: 3.3%
Raheem Sterling had a pretty ordinary FPL 20-21 season, or so we believe anyways. Despite being on the fringes of the first team for quite some time in the season, Sterling(154) finished as the third-highest points scorer from Manchester City, behind Gundogan(157) and Ederson(160). Furthermore, he did finish in the top 10 among midfielders in FPL.
Three reasons why Sterling is a strong differential in FPL
- Pep Guardiola still trusts him
Despite all the suggestions that Sterling had become out of favor last season, Pep Guardiola started him in the Champions League final, in what was essentially the biggest game in the history of the club. This leads us to the next factor.
2. Back to form
For anyone that watched the Euros, you would have witnessed the very best of Raheem Sterling once again, albeit in different colors. The Englishman was arguably the player of the tournament, he registered 3 goals and 2 assists in all. We have seen plenty of times in the past that players who translate international form directly at club level.
3. He is an explosive FPL player
One of the reasons why a lot of FPL managers used to prefer Sterling over KDB is because of that potential big haul in his locker. Let us examine some data from the last 3 seasons of some of the big hitters.
As we can see from the above data, Sterling, despite having one average season is nearly on par with the likes of Kane and Salah. The thing about the Manchester City man is when he is hot he gives FPL managers points aplenty and it is imperative to understand exactly when that time is. As for this season, we believe that his scoring spree may well come from the very beginning of the 21/22 season.
Pro Tip: Now on viewing the above data, managers would find that KDB has the best record. However, he is someone who keeps ticking over and doesn’t always come up with massive hauls. Sterling, therefore is a more enterprising option, especially when he is in a good moment.
Further Read: Check out our Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£7 – £9.5 Mil) Analysis and Comparison Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, FPL Premium Midfielders (£10 Mil+) Analysis For 2021/22 Season, FPL Budget Midfielders (£5 – £6.5Mil) Analysis For 2021/22 Season in case you haven’t already. Here is also a link to all our FPL Midfielders and FPL position-wise player analysis blogs.
Chris Wood £7.0, TSB: 2.8%
Only three players got more points than Chris Wood(63) between GW28 and the end of the 20/21 season, namely, Pereira(65), Iheanacho(72), and Trent(75). In this time, the New Zealander scored 7 goals for his club.
In all through the course of last season, Wood had 26 big chances, only Vardy(35), Salah(33), Bamford(33), DCL(31), Kane(31), and Mane(27) had more. Furthermore, the Burnley striker had xGI of 51%, only Kane(53%) boasts a better tally.
As we stated frequently last campaign in our differentials, Wood is a streak player. The Clarets’ fixtures in the first half of the season are evenly spread out, as a result of which Wood can be the third forward in our teams up and till FPL GW18.
Pro Tip: Chris Wood is priced £0.5 lesser than the likes of Watkins, Antonio, etc and if indeed managers get themselves in that dreaded situation of saving £0.5 then Chris Wood is the best enabler.
Further Read: FPL Mid-Priced Strikers (£7.0 – £8.5 Mil) Analysis For 21/22 Season, FPL Premium Forwards Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, FPL Budget Strikers (£4.5 – £6.5 Mil) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, Here is a link to all FPL Strikers and position-wise player analysis blog ~ FPL Strikers, FPL position-wise player analysis
Dean Henderson £5.0, TSB: 3.6%
It is not often that we pick a goalkeeper as one of our differentials. However, since this blog is intended on players for the long term, Dean Henderson, we suggest is a viable option for FPL managers. The Manchester United man is someone you can set and forget for the rest of the season.
Only Aston Villa(15), Chelsea(18), and Manchester City(19) kept more clean sheets than Manchester United(13) last season. One of the reasons why Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men didn’t have more shutouts is because they kept conceding silly goals. However, with the imminent arrival of a world-class defender in Raphael Varane, things are likely to improve.
As it stands, the two most owned keepers in FPL are Emi Martinez(39.4%) and Robert Sanchez(25%). Dean Smith’s men overperformed last season.
As we can see from the above plot, Aston Villa significantly outperformed their expected clean sheets last season. Furthermore, the fact that Emi Martinez is placed at £5.5 makes him a riskier option than he otherwise would be.
Let us now take a look at Robert Sanchez. Brighton’s defense was the third-best in the league last season, in terms of expected goals conceded(41.83). However, we have to bear in mind that Ben White, arguably their best defender, has now joined Arsenal. In 2019-20, in the absence of White, the Seagulls had an xGC of 59.7, a whopping difference of nearly 18.
Considering the fact that Manchester United are going to be better defensively than they were last season and that Dean Henderson is placed at £5.0, it is a steal of some sort.
Note: All the noises surrounding the Manchester United camp is that Dean Henderson will be the first choice keeper. However, keep an eye on the press conferences from Ole, just to make sure, before you finalize your teams.
Further Read: Hunt For The Next Martinez: Ideal FPL Goalkeeper 2021/22 season, FPL GoalKeepers for 2021/22 FPL season, Here is a link to all our FPL Goalkeepers blog and FPL position-wise player analysis
Kieran Tierney £5.0, TSB:8.4%
Kieran Tierney has been a player who has been £0.5 more costlier than what we would have liked him to be. However, this season, the Arsenal left-back is priced perfectly to be part of our teams. One of the reasons why an Arsenal defender can be valuable in our teams is because of their defensive record.
As we can see, the Gunners had one of the best defenses in the league last season. With the addition of Ben White to their arsenal(kindly ignore the pun), Arteta’s men are going to be even more stronger. Another key factor in Arsenal potentially having a good season is the lack of European football. This essentially reduces the risk of Kieran Tierney suffering from injuries this season.
The Arsenal left-back registered a goal and 4 assists last season, quite less for a player of his caliber. However, for the aforementioned Tierney is all set to have a breakthrough season in FPL, this time around.
Further Read: Check out our Best Premium Defenders(6.0 Mil+) To Target For The 2021/22 FPL Season and Best Mid-Priced Defenders(5 to 5.5 Mil) To Target For The 2021/2022 FPL Season, FPL Budget Defenders (£4.5) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season
in case you haven’t already. Here is a link to all our FPL Defenders blog for your reference.
Callum Wilson £7.5, TSB: 4.9%
Despite missing a third of the 20/21 season, Callum Wilson got 18 attacking returns( 12 goals 6 assists) in FPL. The Newcastle man also got 22 bonus points, the fourth-best tally among forwards, seventh-best overall.
Steve Bruce’s men have a very good run of fixtures up and till GW15. It is in these kinds of fixtures that Wilson and indeed Newcastle tend to do well.
Callum Wilson is Newcastle’s talisman, he is on the end of most of the chances they create. He takes penalties. To put it in numbers, the striker had 21 big chances last season, the 11th best tally in the entire league. Most importantly the Magpies are a team that do not score a lot of goals, neither do they keep clean sheets, hence why Wilson gets a lot of bonus points.
Further Read: FPL Mid-Priced Strikers (£7.0 – £8.5 Mil) Analysis For 21/22 Season, FPL Premium Forwards Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, FPL Budget Strikers (£4.5 – £6.5 Mil) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season, Here is a link to all FPL Strikers and position-wise player analysis blog ~ FPL Strikers, FPL position-wise player analysis
Riyad Mahrez £9.0, TSB:4.9%
Mahrez was the thirteenth-highest points scorer among midfielders in the previous campaign. The Algerian had 17 attacking returns( 9 goals and 8 assists) last season. However, he played just 1945 minutes, which is significantly fewer than all the other successful players in his position.
As we can see from the above data, Mahrez’s mins per point is on par with the likes of Fernandes and Mo Salah. This clearly indicates how explosive he can be. The caveat though is Pep Roulette!
Why Riyad Mahrez is certain to be a starter in the opening weeks of the season?
First things first, Mahrez, unlike most other Manchester City players, has had a full pre-season. On top of that the likes of Foden, Sterling may not feature in the first game of the season. Not just that, Mahrez established himself as one of the key players in the team last season. He started almost all of City’s big matches in the second half of the season. But most importantly, he might be the designated penalty taker for the champions at the start of the season.
As we said about Sterling earlier, the key is to identify the right time to invest in these explosive Manchester City assets. The start of the season may well be the perfect time to invest in Mahrez.
Further Read: FPL Premium Midfielders (£10 Mil+) Analysis For 2021/22 Season
Harvey Barnes £7.0, TSB: 7.0%
Harvey Barnes is our last differential pick for the start of this season. The Leicester City man was in red-hot form before picking up an injury in GW26. Only Gundogan(101) and Bruno(88) scored more points than Barnes(75) between GW15 and GW25. Ten of his Fourteen attacking returns came during this period.
Barnes has returned to fitness in pre-season, he even played 45 minutes in their latest friendly against QPR. Barnes is one of those players who is very direct and likes to get himself in goal-scoring positions.
One of the things managers have to keep in mind is the formation in which Rodgers plays. Harvey Barnes ‘ form coincided with him playing on the left-wing in a 4-2-3-1 formation. So one has to look out for what the Leicester manager says in the pre-match before the first game.
Pro Tip: if there is any hint that Leicester will play with a back three, then it is best to avoid Barnes. If there is no hint then it is safer to wait for a week, and transfer him in if the manager plays his preferred formation.
Further Read: Check out our Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£7 – £9.5 Mil) Analysis and Comparison Ahead Of 2021/22 Season in case you haven’t already. Here is also a link to all our FPL Midfielders and FPL position-wise player analysis blogs.
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of the 2021/22 Season:
Thanks for reading the FPL differentials blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 20000+community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our 2021/22 FPL pre-season blogs. Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Team Structure Guide, FPL Goalkeepers, FPL Budget Strikers, FPL Midfielders, FPL position-wise player analysis, FPL Individual player comparison and analysis, FPL Strikers, FPL Defenders, FPL Team Analysis, and FPL Player Analysis.
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K K Anirudh
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