Making the Case to be an FPL Asset This Season ~ Diogo Jota

The Time has come- A new season comes reckoning!!

As FPL managers start the endless cycle of fine-tuning their drafts before the start of the new FPL season 21-22. In this series of blogs, we are here to make the case for a few players who might not be currently, at the center of public eye. We will share our insights into why this player is someone you should consider for a successful start to the season, however as always, the final choice remains in your hands as FPL managers. 

In the first part of the series, we have made a strong case for Cavani as a FPL asset. Don’t forget to check it out!

When it comes to midfield options, the likes of Salah & Bruno already rule the market & would most probably have taken a place in your teams unless you are feeling really Mavericky about yourself. As Trent really pushes your budget to the brim, the priority of finding a strong sub-premium midfielder remains high on the list for most FPL managers. Choosing a player from this bracket can be really tricky as there are plenty of top options available across teams. More importantly, these assets provide different skillset & different avenues of getting points for your team. As we analyze the various options, I think it is important to realize here, you are forced choose between someone who is top at scoring, creativity or someone who really gets involved in the penalty box meaning the potential to give returns is high. It is a game that you have to play & place your bets & hope that the dice you rolled is the best one. 

In this week’s edition, we make the case for Diogo Jota as the sub-premium midfielder for your squad. Diogo Jota had a solid start for Liverpool last year but unfortunately, he missed the majority of the games with a knee injury. With Firmino rarely contributing to goals & a rare season where both Salah & Mane underperformed wrt their underlying x metrics- introduction of Jota seemed like a fresh breath of air for Liverpool be it if he was starting or coming off the bench. Jota has returned to the Liverpool lineup towards the end of the season but he looked rusty & did not quite replicate his explosive first half form. This explains why only 9.6% owners are on him as on today and why despite playing for a team with one of the best fixtures in first 6, Jota is still getting overlooked. 

Further Read: Hunt For The Next Martinez: Ideal FPL Goalkeeper 2021/22 season

Diogo Jota FPL Analysis:

Team structure

One of the reasons managers last year were unsure of Jota was lack of fixed starting place for Jota. While he ended the season as no. 9 sometimes, his starting positions has also been both on right & left sides. At one point, we also had Klopp change his formation to a 4231 (rare thing to see from Klopp) for a few games just so that he could integrate all 4 of his attacking players upfront with Jota playing as forward right winger. Interestingly, Firmino used to drop off as no. 10 in this formation while Salah played upfront. However, the good news for FPL managers is that Jota has returned to training prior to Firmino who was part of Copa America  finals loss to Argentina. This means there is a good chance that Jota will start the first match as no. 9 unless an unlikely Ox forces his way into the squad.

This week we will first start by looking at our Customs Stats table (created thanks to Fantasy Football Hub) before finally narrowing down to 1 player.

Further Read: Best FPL Assets to Consider From Promoted Teams for 21/22 FPL Season

Competitors

In what is clearly a crowded market, we have multiple options in below 8.5m midfielders.  But some of the most attractive options as per my understanding are as follows:-

• Grealish- AVL- 8.0m (34.9% TSB)
• Barnes- LEI- 7.0m (7.4% TSB)
• Raphinha- LEE- 6.5m (22.4% TSB)
• Madison- LEI- 7.0m (11.7% TSB)
• Jota- LIV- 7.5m (9.6% TSB) 
• Havertz-8.5m (11.1% TSB)

I have left out players like Foden and Greenwood on account of the rotation feasibilities & Mount – selecting Havertz ahead of him on account of his OOP & underlying stats.

Further Read: AboutFPL Mini League For 2021/22 FPL Season | Free Entry with some amazing prizes

Now, let’s look a bit deeper into their performances last season & why we are making the case for Diogo Jota:- 

Customized Attacking Stats (Stats/Start):

In making the case for Edison Cavani, we looked at /90 min as a metric to finally zone into Cavani as our chosen forward. Today, we are going to use another metric- /Start. The reason I have done this is because of 1 player- Diogo Jota. Jota has been exceptional coming off the bench for Liverpool especially in 1^st half of the season, this has meant his /90 stats has been exceptional & shows him as a standout performer in this bracket. However, a- it is not an even field considering the other players have been starting and performing regularly for the team for around 90 mins & also, I wanted to look at Jota’s performance as a starter which we expect him to be at the start of the season. 

So, we have divided the metrics into 4 major metrics- 

• Involvement– Passes into Box, Touches in Box
• Shooting– Shots inside the box(SiB), Shots on Target(SoT), Big Chances(BC), Non-penalty Expected Goals (NpXG) & Goals(G)
• Creating– Big Chances Created(BCC), Expected Assists(xA) & Assists(A)
• Outcome– Expected Points(xPts) & Points(P)

This is in addition to the number of starts & time spent by player on a start.

The data is sourced from Fantasy Football Hub who provide this lovely option to create your own customized table to compare with the selected players(25% discount link here).

Key Takeaways from Statistical comparison of Jota with other FPL midfielders:

• As we can see, the involvement metrics has Raphinha & Grealish close with strong numbers in both metrics.
• When it comes to shooting, it is Jota all the way who tops all the metrics despite us taking his starts alone. Harvey Barnes comes a close second (He was also a close second choice for me to make the case for in this bracket !!) Jota’s dominance is not only in shot taking but in the fact that he receives almost twice big chances of Barnes. Havertz does come close in this metric but his NpXG shows his finishing has not been top class, something where we see Barnes shining a lot.
• Grealish was a 1 man show when it comes to creation of chances & is closely followed by Leeds wonder signing, Raphinha. I think this was mostly expected but what does surprise me is the really low numbers for both Jota & Havertz – perhaps their highly advanced positions is putting more at receiving end of opportunities than at the beginning. 
•  FPL Points ( Actual & Expected)- Jota leads the expected points followed by Grealish & Raphinha. But when you look at his actual points, Grealish leads it with Barnes & Raphinha coming 2^nd & 3^rd respectively.

As I had written above, your choice of midfielder in this bracket can be at the end of the day, your choice of the skillset you want to bank upon. Different choices can lead to different results. But today, we are making the case for Diogo Jota, there is a reason we are doing the same. Considering the fact that Jota, Grealish & Barnes had long absences last season, I did not want to make a GW 1-19 & 20-38 or last 9 matches in-depth look.

Further Read: Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£7 – £9.5 Mil) Analysis and Comparison Ahead Of 2021/22 Season

However, we will do the same for Jota alone just to see whether he fared well:-

Diogo Jota FPL GW1- GW19 vs GW20- GW38:

PS- Jota played only in first half of the season till GW 11 & returned to squad in GW 27.

Now, if you look at the stats for Jota in first half of the season, he comes off with a /start points return of 6.2 which would have taken him substantially ahead of Grealish in our final points metric as well. So, it comes down the fact as to why Jota after injury did not give same return. He received 6 Big Chances & had an xG of 4.07 while providing only a return of 2 Goals. 

Upcoming Fixtures 

We are using FFH fixtures tool to look at Top 3 attacking teams with a view on Predicted Results. Liverpool comes in top 3 for the first 6 fixtures: –

So, folks on account of all of these factors, we are Making the Case for Diogo Jota to be one of your first choices for that mid-priced midfielders’ slot. We will be back next week with a different profile for the best defensive choices. See you soon people!!

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