What is FPL Price Changes? | Ultimate FPL Price Changes Guide

Nothing philosophical, but those of us who have been playing the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) for a few years now, know that this is accurate enough when it comes to price changes. It is not surprising to see that many seasoned players as well as FPL newcomers remain perplexed with the concept. So, we welcome you to join us in trying to decipher the complex world of “FPL Price Changes”. In this blog, we’ll explain to you what is price changes in FPL and how it works in FPL.

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

What are Price Changes in FPL?

At the start of a new season, all players come at an asking price, which is primarily governed by their price at the end of the previous season, past performances, and points potential for the upcoming season, which is again dependent on the team and position they play in. Essentially the popularity or ownership of a player is what drives his price up or down. This is influenced by real-life events such as a player’s performance, playing time, injury, suspension, or even upcoming fixtures. Consider it as a trading market, where prices of a commodity increase in price when their demand increases and vice-versa.

FPL Price Changes Explained with an Example

Let us consider this with an example of Harry Kane (£11.5m). Suppose he scores a hat trick. Obviously, he will be transferred in by thousands if not millions of players.
Let’s assume 10,000 people transfer him in and 2,000 people transfer him out.
The net transfer is 8,000. Beyond a certain number of net transfers, which is the threshold, his value increases by 0.1m. Apparently, this threshold value and the price change mechanism are not transparent and it won’t be made public as per the official FPL website (below).

Also, keep in mind that a player’s price can change by only 0.1m per day, and over the course of a game week (GW) this change is restricted to 0.3m, i.e., it can change only 3 times by 0.1m. After Kane scores the hattrick (as in the above e.g.), it is highly likely that his price increases by 0.1m to 11.6m the very next day, but even if it were supposed to keep on rising, his price at the start of the next GW shall be capped at 11.8m.

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Track FPL Price Changes on Fantasy Football Hub(FFHUB)

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Player Price Lock

There are instances where a player’s price might be locked for a certain period of time. It means that his price will not change for the corresponding GW and any number of transfers in or out that GW will have no effect on his price.

Usually, a player’s price remains locked when he becomes available to play in the immediate GW after returning from a suspension/injury layoff and FPL notifies his status as 100% fit for the next match. This simply means that a player can change in price when he is injured, suspended or goes off on a loan. But, once his status changes, prices will be locked until the start of the next GW.

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

Price Change in Action!

Half profit, full loss!

Whenever you sell a player whose value has increased, you never get to sell him at the current price of that player. The profit that you made will always be limited to half (50%) of that profit that you accrued.

Let’s suppose that you have Heung Min Son (12m) in your team and he has been raking in points for the last 5 game weeks. This has led to an incremental increase in his ownership and his price now stands at 12.6m. Now, due to an upcoming run of difficult fixtures or maybe due an injury layoff, you decide to sell him. You might think that you have made a profit of 0.6m (12.6m – 12m). But wait, your real profit would only be 0.3m (FPL profit = 50% of profit accrued)! For all those who would like to deduce a mathematical formula for this, it would be as follows –

Profit = ½ (selling price – purchase price), here the selling price = current price.
= ½ (12.6m – 12m) = 0.3m

Let’s now consider the situation where Son’s price has increased to an odd value like 12.5m.

Profit = ½ (12.5m – 12m) = 0.25m, but FPL profits/losses can only be in increments of 0.1m. Also, profit is always rounded down. So here profit would be 0.2m instead of 0.3m. To check the prices of the players in your team you can go to the transfers tab within the game, where the prices will be displayed below the player’s name. Now, there are 2 types of views/layouts that you can toggle between on this page. In the pitch view mode, the price below a player will be the selling price of the player. To get more information on the player’s current price (CP), selling price (SP), and purchase price (PP) select the list view.

Easy way of remembering how price changes impact your transfers:

To make it easier, remember that if the profit is an odd value (not divisible by 2), then you can afford to wait for prices to drop once, because you would still have the same profit of 0.2m if you were to sell at 12.5m or 12.4m.

Unfortunately, there might also be situations where the player’s price falls below your purchased price. This would result in a loss. Suppose Son starts horribly and blanks in the first 5 GWs, people will look at other options who are performing well. But you are optimistic and hope that he starts firing and retain him until finally, you realize that he is now 11.7m! This has resulted in you losing 0.3m on the player.
Loss = Purchase price – current price
         = 12m – 11.7m = 0.3m

Note that there is no halving of price value because losses are FULL losses! That is essentially the ‘half profit, full loss’ price change mechanism.

Predicting FPL Player Price Changes

When you are up against players in a game of around 9 million+ (and counting) players it is difficult to predict price changes simply based on player performances. It is interesting to note that a player’s price can be affected by 10,000 transfers in and all the while it can remain unaffected for another player even if he has 100,000 transfers in. There are various reasons for this and as explained earlier, the price change algorithm is a closely guarded secret!

It is in such situations that we have price prediction tools that help us with price changes. The FPL Statistics, and Fantasy Football Hub(FFHUB) are sites that are hugely popular and useful resources. Such resources only show the likelihood of price changes and should only be considered as a trial-and-error method of price prediction, as their accuracy might change over the season. So, use your own conviction as well when making transfer decisions. Mostly price changes take place between 1:00 am – 2:00 am GMT.

FPL Team Value Analysis

“Rome wasn’t built in a day”

This quote underlines the whole essence of FPL price changes w.r.t. FPL team value. Over the course of a season, if your team value consistently increases, it usually means that you are making good transfer decisions by owning in-form players as well as discarding underperforming ones.

We are all given £100m to build our team of fantasy players who we believe will help us to reach the final glory (FPL #1). But as the season progresses, many a time we realize that the person just above us in the rankings might have our same team but owns an in-form Saka (8.5m) when we are forced to go with a ‘cover pick’ like Odegaard (8m) to take advantage of Arsenal’s good fixtures. Therefore, higher team value gives you the ability to have more leverage with your transfers as the season progresses. It helps you build a group of more expensive and better players which seemed impossible at the start of the season.

Further Read: FPL Team Value Guide- Why is it important? How to improve it? and FAQs

How price changes impact your Wildcard in FPL

Another powerful way to improve your team value is when you have activated your wildcard. If you have already planned in using a WC for the next GW, always activate it as soon as possible. Then bring in players that you believe will rise at least twice before the GW deadline. Whether you own them once your team is finalized is irrelevant, because we are only interested in reaping the profits by playing the market.

Also, sell players that you have no value invested in but believe that they might fall in price. You could get them back for a lesser price as well. But holding such players will result in a loss and is an unnecessary risk. NEVER sell players if you have considerable value in them (profit) if you intend to bring them back in immediately. This could easily backfire and derail your team structure and season.

Strategies To Ponder

We understood that catching price rises and falls are helpful in having a successful FPL season. But it is just the tip of the iceberg. FPL is a game that utilizes a lot of skills. While some managers wait until the team’s press conference to bring in a player, some others jump the gun and immediately bring in a player after a good performance, only to realize that he was injured midweek in a training session. So there needs to be caution.

Final Tips regarding FPL price changes

• Resist bringing in a player when his match has not yet ended. You never know, he might get injured in the 90^th min.
• There have been instances when players from teams that take part in European cup competitions or English cup fixtures have mid-week ties and get injured in those games. So, if you bring in such players on the basis of their Premier League performance alone with another match looming, have a slight caution.
• Wait for transferring out a player if you have an odd value as your profit as discussed before, since your profit won’t be affected with 1 price drop.
• If you are transferring in players from teams that have a huge FPL fanbase like Manchester United, it might be worth the risk to bring them in as soon as their match is over and you believe they might rise in price. This is because they could easily rise twice or even thrice in a week.
• Price changes are more relevant only until GW22 or thereabouts when most fantasy teams attain their highest team value. This is because most price fluctuations happen during first half of the season and teams start to become more template. So, it is reasonable to be brave with your transfers in catching price rises during this period and taking your time with transfers in the latter part of the season.
• Stay FPL relevant – try to gather latest information about the player you intend to transfer in or out.

Your most valuable currency in FPL is the transfers that you have each GW. Utilize them properly to bring in players you believe will strike gold, reap the profits and build a strong team value. Well, trust us, this is easier said than done!

Thanks for investing your valuable time in reading the FPL price changes article and hope you will stay along with us in this season’s FPL journey. Good luck!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season

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2023/24 FPL Season Positional Analysis:

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Forwards:
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If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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