FPL GW33 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW33 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for Gameweek 33, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. This season the score is 15.5-16.5 heading into GW30 with Official FPL Scout picks leading us by one point.

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW33 Scout Picks

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Raya takes up the gloves in our GW33 Scout team. In the last seven games, Raya has picked up six clean sheets and has conceded only one goal. Since GW24, Arsenal have conceded an xGC of just 3.58 across eight games– The least amongst all teams during the period. For context, the second best is Manchester City with an xGC of 8.38.

The Gunners are simply outstanding defensively so far this season having conceded only 24 goals from an xGC of 21.56- Both lowest in the league.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Defenders

Virgil Van Dijk leads the defensive line in the GW33 Scout Selection. He is the most nailed defender in the Liverpool team and their defensive form also should get better with the potential return of Alisson Becker. Liverpool also have a Double Gameweek in GW34 vs Fulham, Everton and the game in GW33 is a good entry point to get VVD in.

Their GW33 opponent Palace have only scored just 11 goals from the last 9 matches and their underlying data is also not promising.

Crystal Palace- Attack Rank since GW23(Per 90 Stats):

• xG- 20th
• Big Chances- 18th
• Shots inside the box- 20th
• Goals Scored- 18th

Rico Lewis got a goal in the 2-4 win vs Crystal Palace in GW32. With the defensive injuries at Manchester City, Lewis has started the last 3 league matches. During this time, Lewis had 3 Shots inside the box, 5 chances created, 2 Big Chances created and 1.0 xGI. Only Ait Nouri(1.1) has a better xGI among Defenders during this time.

With Walker injured and Stones battling through muscular tightness to complete the game vs Real Madrid, Lewis is likely to get his 4th consecutive league start in the league. The versatile nature of Lewis who can both play as RB and DM helps in his expected minutes. No key players are likely to risked with an all important UCL second leg vs Madrid right after GW33. There are also good chances that Lewis starts in midfield with Rodri himself saying he might need some rest.

Reguilon rounds up the GW33 Scout Picks Defenders selection. There is clean sheet potential for Brentford at home vs Sheffield United(H) as Sheffield are ranked 20th for Goals Scored and xG this season. Reguilon did put up an impressive performance in the 3-3 draw with 2 assists to his name from just 75 minutes before he was substituted for a likely cramp.

Reguilon had impressive numbers in that game- 2 Shots, 2 Big Chances created and 0.8 xGI which also helped him get 2 Bonus points.

Matchup alert- Sheffield United have conceded 86 crosses from their right flank over the last 6 matches– Highest among all the teams in the league. This is where Reguilon thrives and puts in those crosses as seen in the above heatmap.

Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Salah is the Top Midfielder pick for FPL GW33. He is in fact a great captaincy option for this week as discussed in our FPL GW33 Captaincy Metrics. Despite injury concerns and AFCON duty, Salah has registered 17 goals, 9 assists from 25 appearances this season. Salah minutes were also managed in the midweek Europa league as he came on only for the second half. So he is very likely to start in GW33 vs Palace.

With Double Gameweek 34 for Liverpool, Salah should be on your priority transfer target if you still don’t own him still.

Key Stat: Since GW9, Crystal Palace have conceded 2.88 Big Chances/game with only Luton Town(3.48) conceding more Big chances/game in the entire league.

Cole Palmer has become a no-brainer pick these days considering the form he is in. He is still fresh from his incredible hattrick vs Man United in GW31 and has not blanked in the last 5 matches. Palmer has 26 goal involvements(16 goals, 10 assists) from 23 matches since he became a starter for Chelsea in GW7.

FPL Points since GW7(Palmer Full Debut):

• Palmer- 178
• Watkins- 170
• Foden- 149
• Saka- 147
• Salah- 141
• Son- 141

Palmer has 3 Double Digit Hauls in the last 5 matches as well and looks unstoppable at the moment.

Son Heung-min is once again expected to start as a striker in the absence of Richarlison who is ruled out for GW33. With no European football, there is no concern over Son’s minutes as he has played more than 85 minutes in each of his last 7 league games. He has been nicely ticking along as well with 3 goals, 3 assists from the last 6 games averaging more than 7 points/game.

Son Stats since GW27:

• Matches- 6
• Goal Involvements- 6(Joint 2nd)
• xGI- 3.8(4th among mids)
• FPL Points- 43(2nd)

Son is up against an injury-hit Newcastle defense who are without Pope, Botman, Lascelles, Trippier, and Livramento, Hall(Doubtful). Their defensive form has been poor for a few months to say the least as they have conceded 2.33 xG/game since GW15.

Newcastle Defense Stats since GW15:

• xGC- 20th
• Big Chances conceded- 19th
• Goals Conceded- 17th

Bukayo Saka rounds up the midfield picks for GW33 Scout team. With the league title fate in their own hands, we do guess that there are very less chances that Saka is rested vs Villa. Since GW22, Saka averages 9 FPL Points/game with 8 goals, 2 assists from the last 9 games. During this same time, Villa are ranked 18th for xGC, 19th for Big Chances conceded in the league.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW33 Scout Picks – Forwards

Haaland takes up the arm band in our GW33 Scout team with a juicy home fixture vs Luton Town. The last time these 2 sides played, Haaland got 5 goals and Manchester City won 6-2. Haaland was also rested for GW31 vs Villa so he is unlikely to be rested even with a tougher UCL 2nd leg vs Real Madrid just after this. Even with just 1 Double Digit Haul from his last 13 matches, Haaland still has good underlying data and is expected to get into goal scoring form ahead of UCL second leg game.

Haaland also comes out as Joint Top in our Captaincy Metrics due to opposition’s poor defensive form.

Matchup alert:

• Luton Town have conceded 126 chances down the center this season- 3rd Highest among all the teams in the league.
• Luton are also ranked 20th in the league for Shots conceded, Expected Goals Conceded and Big Chances conceded.

Isak has been in scintillating form off late with 5 goals, 1 assist from his last 5 matches fetching 39 points in the process. Only Palmer(5.5) has a better xGI than Isak(4.8) during this time. In fact, Isak leads the xG charts in Premier Leage during this time as seen below. Isak and Newcastle will be up against a Spurs side who have kept only 2 clean sheets since GW10.

Wissa rounds up the GW33 Scout team as a Differential Pick with a game vs Sheffield United at home. Wissa has 6 Big Chances from his last 6 matches– Joint 2nd Highest among all players during this time(Since GW27). We all know that Sheffield United are poor defensively and have conceded the most goals in the league.

Even with no Double Gameweeks ahead, Brentford forwards like Wissa/Toney can reward you in this amazing fixture run for Bees till the end of the season.

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Full FPL GW33 Scout Picks Team

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33

Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW33 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW33 Tips and Preview- All Dilemmas Answered
FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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Srinivasan S

23 | Engineer | coder | Blogger Brainchild and an integral part of ALLABOUTFPL Ardent Man city fan who gets excited when someone goes Aguerooooo. Codes during the day and blogs during the night and has just one wish to retire early and take Allaboutfpl to the big stage:)

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