FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW30 Scout Picks blog. Our fantastic scout @FPLDaggaFC (Do follow him on Twitter) is back with his Scout picks for Gameweek 30, as always our Scout picks are backed up by eye test, stats, and analysis.

Last season our scout picks won 21.5 vs 15.5 against the Official FPL Scout picks. This season the score is 12.5-16.5 heading into GW30 with Official FPL Scout picks leading us by four points.

Scout Picks	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	GW20	GW21	GW22	GW23	GW24	GW25	GW26	GW27	GW28	GW29	Overall
AllAboutFPL Scout Picks	78	62	59	79	42	58	51	60	95	68	41	82	39	62	31	46	47	51	52	81	77	56	74	64	81	53	67	58	16	12.5
Official FPL Scout Picks	76	46	48	95	33	68	88	57	102	43	33	80	49	86	48	46	48	62	54	88	72	53	58	71	74	58	82	73	18	16.5

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW30 Scout Picks

FPL GW30 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Leno takes the gloves in our GW30 Scout team with an easy fixture vs Sheffield United(A). Sheffield United have not scored a goal in 3 of their last 4 games. Their underlying numbers also tell a similar story as they are ranked 20th for xG/90 and Big Chances/90 during this time.

On the other hand, Fulham and Leno have kept clean sheets vs Brighton and Tottenham in two of their last 3 games. Fulham have 38% chances of a cleansheet vs Sheffield United- 3rd Highest among all the teams.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW30 Scout Picks – Defenders

Gusto is the Top pick among Defenders for GW30 with a good fixture vs Burnley at home. Since his return from injury in GW18, Gusto is Top for Big Chances created(7), 2nd best for xA(2.06), and Joint 2nd for Assists(3) among Defenders. Chelsea also have a 48% chance of a clean sheet in GW30- The highest among all teams.

Gusto is a great pick not just for GW30 but beyond as well as discussed in our FPL GW30 Differential Picks article.

Bradley is the next pick against Brighton at home. With Trent Alexander Arnold likely to be out till GW33, Bradley is a good budget pick for the short term. At just 4.2 million, Bradley is a budget pick with a good attacking threat who can help you get the big names up front.

Liverpool have 2 home games coming up- Brighton(H) and Sheffield United(H). At home, Liverpool are more strong defensively. They have conceded only 12 goals from 14 home games this season– Joint least in the league.

Liverpool Defense- Home vs Away(Per 90):

• xGC- 0.93 vs 1.52
• Big Chances conceded- 1.64 vs 2.71
• Shots conceded- 9.43 vs 12.71

Pedro Porro up against Luton Town(H) rounds up the Defenders. Porro has 8 assists from 25 games which are good numbers for a defender. Porro has an xGI of 7.5- 2nd Highest among all Defenders. With the injury crisis at Luton and Porro’s attacking positions could work well in GW30 for Porro owners.

Rob Edwards(Luton manager) before the Spurs game: “It got so bad earlier in the week that Kevin Foley [Luton coach] had to play for the opposition in training, then he tweaked his hamstring as well. So I’m losing coaching staff as well as players now”

Porro also has a favorable matchup vs Luton. Luton have conceded 39 chances down their left flank over the last 6 matches- Highest among all the teams. Porro takes up very attacking positions on the opposition’s left flank and would look to make the most of it.

Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations

FPL GW30 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Palmer is the first midfielder in our scout picks this week, he’s a must-own ahead of facing a relegation-threatened Burnley side. Palmer made his first PL start in GW7 and since then he’s the highest-scoring midfielder in FPL with 138 points, overall only Watkins(156 pts) has outscored Palmer during the period.

Burnley have conceded 16 goals in the last six games(2nd highest), and their xGC(12.02) is the 4th worst amongst all teams. In the last six games, the Clarets have also conceded 26 chances on their right flank which is where Palmer operates(More than central(19) and left flank(22))

Son is another easy selection this week, Spurs face an injury-hit Luton side and will be playing as a forward with Richarlison expected to miss out due to a knee issue.

Luton’s defensive rank:

• 20^th for Shots Conceded
• 20^th for Shots in the Box Conceded
• 20^th for Shots from Set Pieces Conceded
• 20^th for Big Chances Conceded
• 20^th for NPxGC
• 20^th for xGC
• 20^th for xCS
• 19^th for Shots on Target Conceded
• 19th for Clean Sheets
• 18^th for Goals Conceded

Matchup alert:

• Luton Town have conceded 32 chances down the center over the last 6 matches- 2nd Highest among all the teams in the league.
• Luton have also conceded 28 Big chances from the last 6 matches- Highest in the league

Mo Salah is the captain choice in our scout picks after coming on top of our captaincy metrics this week. The Liverpool attacker is expected to make his first start in the PL since GW20 and will be up against Brighton at Home. Liverpool will also double in GW34 which makes Salah a good option in the long run!

In the last six games, Salah has an NPxGI of 4.95 which is the 2nd highest amongst all players. Luis Diaz is 3rd with an NPxGI of 4.88!

We have gone for a double-up on Liverpool’s attack this week with Luis Diaz joining Salah. Luis Diaz has blanked in the last 2 games but his underlying numbers have been good and he was unlucky not to return having had 8 Shots, creating 4 Chances, and totaling an xGI of 1.3 in the two games.

Before the two blanks, Diaz returned in 5 successive games registering 3 goals, and 3 assists from the last 5 games before these 2 matches. Jota is still out and Gakpo has been poor for Liverpool which makes Diaz a surely nailed starter. (Detailed analysis on Diaz in our Differential blog this week)

Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections

FPL GW30 Scout Picks – Forwards

Haaland faces Arsenal at home but still finds a spot in the scout picks this week, the Man City forward will play a key role in an all-important game that could have severe implications in the title race. In the last six games, Haaland has an NPxGI of 5.72 which is comfortably the highest in the league during the period.

Watkins is a popular transfer out this week with managers that are Wildcard offloading the current highest player in FPL as Aston Villa have a tough run of fixtures coming up and the Villans also don’t have a double gameweek this season.

We however feel it’s a gameweek too early to offload one of the most consistent FPL assets this season, Watkins will be up against Wolves(H) who have conceded 22 Big chances from their last 6 matches- Joint 2nd highest among all the teams in the league during the period.

In home games, among FWDs, Watkins is ranked:

• 1^st for FPL Points
• 1^st for Goal Involvements
• 1^st for Assists
• 1^st for xGI

Muniz rounds up the GW30 Scout selection as he is in the form of his life- 7 goals from 7 games since he became a starter for Fulham.

Muniz Stats since GW23(Rank):

• Shots- 30 (3rd)
• Shots inside the Box- 27 (1st)
• Big Chances- 7 (4th)
• Goals- 7(1st)
• Bonus Points- 12(2nd)
• FPL Points- 57(3rd)

Up against the worst defense in the league, Muniz is likely to continue his goal-scoring run. Sheffield United have conceded 20 goals from the last 6 matches- Highest among all the teams during this time. Over the season they have conceded 74 goals from 28 games- 2.64 goals conceded/game which is also the highest.

Further Read: FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

Full FPL GW30 Scout Picks Team

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW30 Tips and Preview- Wildcard, Salah situation and more
FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 31 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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