Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, with Haaland still a doubt for FPL GW22 the captaincy decision is once again interesting. The popular FPL Gameweek 22 captain picks include Saka, Richarlison, Foden, Alvarez and Kevin Be Bruyne. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Saka or would someone else be taking the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 13/21 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 314 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6)
FPL GW22 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW22 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Kevin De Bruyne announced his return in some style by picking up an assist and bagging the winner in just 21 minutes vs Newcastle. His explosive return has meant a whopping 1.10 million FPL managers have brought him ahead of GW22. KDB is also top in our captaincy poll with 30% of the votes. Foden is 2nd on the captaincy poll with 16% of the votes.
Note: Haaland is not considered for the main tables metrics this week as there’s no clear indication that he’ll start vs Burnley. Moreover, he was not even on the bench in the FA Cup game vs Spurs on Friday. However a short summary of the metrics will look if he’s included is added below.
The other three players going into the GW22 captaincy metrics will be Julian Alvarez, Saka and Richarlison.
Further Read: FPL GW22 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 22 Captain picks
Alvarez takes the top spot, the Man City forward has registered 14 shots inside the box, 6 big chances, and an impressive xG of 3.66 in the last six games. He has also created 11 chances in the last six games.
Richarlison is behind Alvarez with an xG of 3.36, 15 shots inside the box, and 6 big chances in the last six games. He has also scored six goals in the last six games, blanking only once during the period!
Saka is 3rd registering an xG of 2.32 in the last six games along with 5 big chances, and 16 chances created.
Foden is 4th with no big chances in the last six games and xG of 1.06, he has however created 17 chances which is the highest amongst the five players in the table
De Bruyne is last with only an xG of 0.82 in the last six games. Do note: KDB’ last six games date include last season’s data as he has appeared only twice this season. His numbers are understandably lower because in his last six matches(End of 22/23 & 23/24), he has played only 283 minutes(Average of only 47 mins per game). Despite this, he has created 4 big chances and registered an xA of 1.53 which reiterates the fact that he’s an elite chance creator with the knack of scoring crucial goals.
Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Spurs dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the North London team has registered a healthy xG of 12.76 during the period. They have had 74 shots inside the box and 19 big chances which is joint 2nd highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Arsenal are second in the table with an xG of 12.10. The gunners are also top for shots inside the box(80) and big chances(23) in the last six games.
Man City are 3rd with an xG of 11.67, all three Man city take the rank of 3 as there are no other teams below them in the table.
Further Read: FPL GW22 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW22
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City have a whopping 94% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 65% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures a top spot for the defending PL champions. The odds clearly favor Man City assets, having the ones that will haul is the tricky problem!
Arsenal have an 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 40% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures they finish above Spurs
Spurs are last amongst the three teams but still have good odds with an 86% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 38% chance of scoring 2+ goals
Further Read: FPL GW22 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 22 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Saka tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 51% and a 5.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 21
De Bruyne is 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 64% and a points projection of 5.2 against Burnley(H). KDB’s anytime return odds are the highest but his predicted points is slightly lower because he’s been predicted to play 65 mins by the FFHUB model
Richarlison is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 51% and a points projection of 5.1 against Brentford(H).
Foden is also 4th with an anytime returns projection of 47% and a points projection of 5.6.
Lastly, Julian Alvarez finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 49% and a points projection of 5.0 ahead of facing Burnley(H)
The gap in predicted points is really close amognst the five options with only 0.7 separating the 1st(Saka) and last(Alvarez)
Further Read: Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 22 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Julian Alvarez takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor of 9. He’s closely followed by Saka and De Bruyne who are joint second with a CRF of 10. Richarlison takes the fourth spot with a CRF of 11 and Foden is last with a CRF of 12.
Captaincy is incredibly open and tight this week, as you can see only a CRF of three separates the first-placed player in the metrics(Alvarez) and the last-placed player in the metrics(Foden)
Good luck for FPL Gameweek 22, we’ll try to update the table images if there’s some concrete news from Pep’s press conference about Haaland potentially starting vs Burnley.
But if you’re wondering what the final metrics would look like if Haaland is added instead of Richarlison(6th in the poll) then Haaland will top the metrics with a CRF of 7
Table 1: Haaland in the last six games: 23 shots in the box, 6 chances created, 13 big chances, and an xG of 6.59. Rank – 1
Table 2: Same for all Man City assets. Rank – 2
Table 3: Same for all Man City assets. Rank – 1
Table 4: Anytime returns(78%), projected points(4.6 based on xMins of 45 mins). Rank – 3
Table 5: Overall CRF: 7
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW22
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW22 Tips – City Assets, Son/Mo/TAA Dilemma, Chip Strategy
FPL GW22 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 22 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 22 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW22 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW22 Wildcard Guide- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts with Planning Notes
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW22 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW22 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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