Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, with Haaland ruled out of FPL GW20 the captaincy decision is once again interesting. The popular FPL Gameweek 20 captain picks include Salah, Alvarez, Solanke, Son and Watkins. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Salah or would someone else be taking the top spot?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 12/19 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 276 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4+6)
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW20 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW20 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 20 with 28% of the votes. Julian Alvarez is second in the captaincy poll with 17% of the votes. Watkins comes 3rd with 13% of the votes, Son & Solanke who play against each other in GW20 wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, WC Structure + More
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 20 Captain picks
Dominic Solanke who has been in red-hot form takes the top spot without any surprise, he has registered a whopping 23 shots inside the box, 8 big chances, and an impressive xG of 4.80 in the last six games.
Salah is behind Solanke with an xG of 2.50, 14 shots inside the box but only 3 big chances in the last six games. Salah has also created 14 chances in the last six games.
Son is a close 3rd registering an xG of 2.24 in the last six games along with 12 chances created.
Alvarez is 4th with just four big chances in the last six games and xG of 2.04, he has however created 17 chances which is the highest amongst the five players in the table
Only an xG of 0.46 separates Salah, Son, and Alvarez!
Surprisingly Watkins is last with only an xG of 1.07 in the last six games, he has also had only one big chance in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Bournemouth’s dominance in the last seven games can be seen in this table, the Cherries are unbeaten in their last six games(6 wins and one draw) and have registered a whopping 11.68 xG during the period.
Spurs attack has seen a resurgence after a mild slump following the injury to Maddison. The North London team is 2nd with an xG of 11.46 in the last six games.
Man City are 3rd with an xG of 10.39, Man City are also top for big chances(20)
Liverpool are fourth amongst the five teams with an xG of 10.33 in the last six games, registering 14 big chances in the last six games. They are however top amongst the five teams for shots inside the box(74) during the period
Aston Villa are last only with an xG of 7.58 in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, WC Structure + More
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW20
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City have a 95% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 69% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures a top spot for the Blues.
Liverpool have a 90% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 45% chance of scoring 2+ goals which ensures the second spot for the Reds.
Aston Villa are 3rd with an 89% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 44% chance of scoring 2+ goals
Spurs are 4th with an 87% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 40% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Bournemouth are last with a 73% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 18% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Son tops the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 66% and a 7.4 points projection in FPL Gameweek 20 vs Bournemouth(H)
Salah is 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 63% and a points projection of 6.6 against Newcastle(A) who have been poor in away games so far this season. In fact, in the last seven away games in all competitions, the Magpies have lost six and drawn one game.
Watkins who has been silent in the last few gameweeks is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 53% and a points projection of 5.5 against Burnley(H)
Alvarez is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 48% and a points projection of 4.9.
Lastly, Solanke finishes 5th with an anytime returns projection of 41% and a points projection of 4.4 ahead of facing Spurs(A)
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 20 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah and Son come out joint top in the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 10, it’s pretty close between the other four options with Alvarez and Solanke finishing second with a CRF of 12. Watkins is last with a CRF of 16.
Only a CRF of 2 separates rank 1-4 in the FPL GW20 captaincy metrics showing how close it is this week!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips & Preview – Best Midfielders, WC Structure + More
FPL GW20 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW20 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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