Top FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

We are into the busiest part of the FPL season. There are going to be seven GWs in the next 30 days. Now is the time to make up ground in your leagues. Now is the time to take calculated risks to beat those around you. We are here with options for you to move away from the template. In this blog, we take a look at the top six differentials(<10% TSB) to consider not just for FPL GW14 but also in the long-term!

Link to all our FPL GW14 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW14 Differential Picks ( <10% ownership)

Virgil Van Dijk vs Fulham (H), 6.1m, TSB: 8.5%

Liverpool became just the second team to restrict Man City to less than 2 goals in a game at the Etihad stadium this season. This continues an improved defensive form for Klopp’s men, who have the second best defence in the league with 11 goals conceded.

Liverpool have a good run of games in the festive period. Four of their seven fixtures have an FDR rating of 2. Besides, 4 of the 7 matches are at Anfield, where the Reds have conceded only 2 goals in 6 matches, keeping 4 clean sheets in the process.

Vrigil Van Dijk has registered 9 shots in the box so far this season. Only 4 defenders have registered more. In the last 4 seasons (ignoring the 2020-21 season, as he missed a large portion due to injury), the Dutchman has scored 15 goals. He’s yet to score this campaign. Stats suggest it might be round the corner( no pun intended)!

Sheffield United (6) and Burnley (5) have the worst and second worst record for goals conceded from set pieces this season. Liverpool face both of them in the coming run of games.

Liverpool have 48% chances of a clean sheet in GW14 and 42% chances of a clean sheet in GW15 according to Draft Hound– Both 2nd highest among all the teams.

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Oleksandr Zinchenko vs Wolves (H), £5.1m, TSB: 9.2%

Zinchenko is the second of three defenders in the FPL GW14 differentials list. This is because defenders are the need of the hour. Managers are in a rush to get rid of the likes of Cash, Newcastle defenders, among others.

Whilst everyone wants to have Gabriel and Saliba to double up on Arsenal, Zinchenko provides a viable alternative to the former. When fit, the Ukrainian has started every league game this season. He has played 90 minutes in 3 of the last 4 matches. Arguably, he is the second most nailed defender, behind Saliba.

	Gametime		Goal Threat						Goal Involvement				Creativity				FPL
Name	£M	App	Mins	S	OT	BC	xG	G	xGI	GI	KP	BCC	xA	A	BPS	B	Pts
Saliba	£5.5	13(0)	1170	4	1	1	0.71	1	1.2	2	2	0	0.49	1	272	5	61
White	£5.7	12(1)	950	4	4	2	0.56	1	1.4	2	10	1	0.82	1	239	7	54
Zinchenko	£5.1	12(3)	757	11	2	0	0.36	1	1.6	1	12	2	1.27	0	223	9	53
Gabriel	£4.9	11(2)	834	7	0	0	0.4	0	0.5	0	1	0	0.13	0	165	2	35

In spite of playing significantly fewer minutes, Zinchenko has registered more bonus points (9) than any of his compatriots at the back. In fact, only Trippier (15) has got a better tally among defenders. The former Man City man has also had more shots(11) than any of the other Arsenal defenders.

6 of Arsenal’s next 9 games have an FDR rating of 2. The Gunners have the best record in the league for goals conceded (10). You can see why everyone wants to double up.

Arsenal’s next two opponents- Wolves and Luton have the third worst and second worst record in the league for chances conceded down the left flank, respectively. If you are chasing for upside, now is the time to go for Zinchenko!

Further Read: FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Ethan Pinnock vs Luton (H), £4.6m, TSB: 3.8%

After playing four of the traditional big six in the last 6 weeks, Brentford now have a very good run of games coming up in the next month or so.

Not only do Brentford have 5 of their next 7 fixtures with an FDR rating of 2, they could also have a potential double GW in match day 20. Albeit, one of the games would be against Man City, at the Etihad, a game they won last season. Also, Pinnock scored the winner the last time the two teams met, in London.

Thomas Frank’s men have kept 3 clean sheets so far this season, each of them coming against the bottom 11. With five of the next seven fixtures against such teams, more clean sheets are on the horizon.

Only Matty Cash(5) has registered more big chances than Pinnock (4), among defenders so far this season. The Brentford man was joint top for goals scored last season among defenders, with only 2 others registering more big chances.

Team	Goals conceded from set pieces	Rank
Luton	5	4th worst
Brighton	1
Sheffield United	6	2nd worst
Aston Villa	4	5th worst
Wolves	2
Crystal Palace	3
Nottingham Forest	7	worst

As we can see, a lot of Brentford’s upcoming opponents are susceptible from set pieces. Pinnock could well get more attacking returns in this period.

Further Read: FPL GW14 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Tomáš Souček vs Crystal Palace (H), £4.9m, TSB: 1.6%

Souček has scored in each of the last two games for West Ham, as he came away with 7 point and 8 point hauls, in Gameweeks 12 and 13, respectively. This means that the Czech Republic international has 4 goals this season.

Three of Souček’s four goals have come at the London stadium. West Ham play 3 of their next 5 games at home, starting with FPL GW14’s fixture against Crystal Palace.

The midfielder has 3 goals in 6 league matches against Crystal Palace. That is more than against anyone else in the league. On top of that, he has an assist as well against them.

Top Players for Big Chances since GW7:

Watkins	10
Haaland	10
Salah	9
Soucek	7
Palmer	7
Isak	7

Key Stat: Soucek has 16 Shots inside the box since GW7 which is Highest among Midfielders, better than the likes of Salah, Son, Mbeumo,etc.

Souček has slipped under the radar this season. Since GW7 onwards, only three players in the entire league have had more big chances than the Hammer.

He has had more shots in the box, more big chances, and the same number of goals than Bowen in this period. The latter has registered 36 points, while the former has 35. Essentially, all of us have spent £2.6 more on a guy that is offering exactly the same as Souček.

Now is the time for managers to switch, or to jump on Soucek. He has better stats in every regard than the likes of Palmer, Hwang, or anyone else in that price bracket.

Further Read: FPL GW14 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target

Top FPL GW14 Ultra Differential Picks ( <1% ownership)

Chris Wood vs Everton(H), £4.9m, TSB: 0.8%

In the last two games that Chris Wood has started in the league, he has scored 2 goals and registered a x combined xG of 2.02, more than any of his teammates in the period. Given that Awoniyi is out for a few months, the NewZealander is likely to get a lot of game time during the festive period and beyond.

Four of Forest’s next five games have an FDR rating of 2. 3 of their next 5 are at home. As we know, Steve Cooper’s men are significantly better at home as compared to on the road.

They have scored 10 goals and won 9 points at home, whereas they have registered a mere 4 points with 6 goals on the road. 10 of their 13 points have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Given the fact that 4 of the next 5 are against such teams, more points and more goals are likely to follow.

Chris Wood has the 6th best record in the league for xG per 90, among players who have played 300 minutes or more. He has registered 3 goals in his career against FPL GW14 opponents Everton. Furthermore, he has 9 attacking returns against Wolves (6 G 3 A), and 3 goals against Fulham in his career, the two teams Forest play following their game against the Toffees.

Further Read: FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from Gameweek 14

Marcus Tavernier vs Aston Villa(H), £5.4m, TSB: 0.1%

Marcus Tavernier scored 2 goals and registered 16 points last time out, against Sheffield United. Truth be told, it had been coming. That haul means that the Cherries midfielder has the third best record in the league for Shots on target (8) since GW10 – Only Darwin(10) and Haaland(9) have more Shots on Target.

Bournemouth’s run of games coming up cries out for goals. Tavernier could be the best attacking option to own from the South Coast side.

Name	£M	App	Mins	S	OT	In	BC	xG	G	xGI	GI	KP	BCC	xA	A	xPts	BPS	B	Pts
Tavernier	£5.4	4(0)	325	11	8	8	3	1.87	2	2.3	2	5	0	0.39	0	22.27	77	3	23
Solanke	£6.5	4(0)	355	13	3	12	3	2.4	2	2.6	2	4	0	0.2	0	20.91	59	3	19
Semenyo	£4.6	4(1)	235	9	3	6	0	0.43	1	0.8	2	4	2	0.41	1	11.52	60	3	17
Kluivert	£4.6	3(1)	139	5	4	3	1	0.29	1	0.3	1	2	0	0.02	0	9.04	41	2	14

Although Solanke has had more shots in the box, the amount of shots he has had on target is a worrying sign. As we can see, Tavernier is significantly better in this regard, and therefore pips the forward to become a differential pick.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have the second worst record in the league for big chances conceded away from home (26), behind only Luton. Last week, we saw Spurs time and again attack down Villa’s right side of defence. That is exactly where Tavernier operates as well.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW14

Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW14 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW14 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Best FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW14 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW14 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from Gameweek 14
FPL GW14 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season 

Link to all our FPL GW14 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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