Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision seems to be between Haaland and Salah with Haaland playing Spurs at home whereas Liverpool have Fulham at gome. The other FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks including the likes of Mbeumo, Saka, and Watkins who is currently flagged and his availability is not clear. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again on top, or will Salah outrank Haaland?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 10/13 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 222 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14)
Link to all our FPL GW14 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW14 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW14 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 14 with 57% of the votes. Haaland is second in the captaincy poll with 24% of the votes. Mbeumo is third with 10% of the votes and will be playing against Luton Town(H) in FPL GW14, Saka and Watkins wrap up the top five in the captaincy poll this week.
Unai Emery on Ollie Watkins fitness: “He’s going to be a doubt for Sunday. “He’s not completely unavailable for Sunday. We are going to wait for tomorrow [Saturday] and see if we can take a risk with him or not. We will see how he feels about facing the demands in 90 minutes we are going to face on Sunday.”
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 14 Captain picks
Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 17 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.46, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration. He has just managed to edge out Mohammed Salah.
Salah comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 15 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.28 over the last 6 matches.
Watkins who missed the midweek European game comes in third with 17 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances, and an xG total of 4.37. He is joint Top with Haaland for Shots inside the box(17).
FPL-fan Favorite Mbeumo with 13 Shots Inside the Box, 5 Big chances, and an xG total of 2.82, takes the fourth spot.
Saka who has been relatively silent in the league over the past few games is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(1.12) with just 4 shots inside the box in the last six games. He’s however the joint highest for most number of chances created(13) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Further Read: Best FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 61 Shots Inside the Box and 19 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 12.89, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Aston Villa known for their attacking intent under Emery edge out Manchester City for the second spot with 64 Shots Inside the Box, 22 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 11.91.
City come behind Villa at 3rd with 55 Shots Inside the Box, 20 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 11.42.
Brentford are only fourth amongst the five teams with just 55 Shots Inside the Box, 19 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.84.
Surprisingly, Arsenal take the last spot with 53 Shots Inside the Box, 11 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 8.33.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW14
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City take the first spot due to the home advantage and Spurs poor defensive form, with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 56% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Liverpool are behind City with an 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 55% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Fulham(H)
Arsenal have an 90% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 45% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against a Wolves side at home without the likes of Gomes and Lemina thereby taking the 3rd rank.
Brentford are fourth behind Arsenal and have a 86% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 38% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Luton Town(H).
Aston Villa are last with a 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 31% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Bournemouth(A).
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 75%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.5 for the week.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 67%, and the Projected Points at 7.4 this week, giving him the second spot.
Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections at 55% and Projected Points at 6.0, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Mbeumo has an Anytime Returns Projections at 52% and Projected Points at 5.9, which puts him 4th in this table.
Lastly, Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections of 49% while the Projected Points stand at 2.6 pushing him to the last spot. Watkins’ projections are lesser than expected due to the injury concern around him at the moment, his xMins has been projected at 45 mins which reduces his projected points whereas all the other assets are projected to play more minutes boosting their projected points.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 14 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a CRF of 6, finishing above Salah who ended up with a CRF of 7.
Watkins is a distant 3rd with a CRF of 15. Saka and Mbeumo fish last with a CRF of 16.
Further Read: Best FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW14
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON
FPL GW14 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW14 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas
FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Best FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW14 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW14 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts and Players to Target
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from Gameweek 14
FPL GW14 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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