Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, This week the captaincy decision is tricky with multiple FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks which includes Salah, Haaland, Son, Watkins, and Saka. All of them returned in GW9 showing that they’re in good form as well. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland again, or will it be one of the others topping the metrics!
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 7/9 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 158 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16)
Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Best GW9 Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW10 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW10 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah after his haul in GW9 comes out on top of the captaincy poll for FPL Gameweek 10 with 46% of the votes. Watkins is second with 28% of the votes and will be playing against Luton Town at home, Aston Villa have won their last 11 home premier league games and have scored 15 goals in their four PL home games so far this season.
Saka is 3rd with 11% of the votes & will be up against the worst defence in the league, Sheffield United at home. Haaland is only fourth in the captaincy poll this week with 7% of the votes, fresh off a brace in the UCL game midweek he’ll face Man United(A) in GW10. The top five is rounded off by Son who will be facing Crystal Palace(A) in GW10.
Further Read: Best FPL Gameweek 10 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 10 Captain picks
Erling Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 17 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 5.14, he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Mohammed Salah comes in behind Haaland for Underlying Numbers. With 17 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances in total, and an xG total of 4.90. He has created 15 chances in the last six games which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players.
Saka, with 9 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big chances, and an xG total of 3.62, takes the third spot. He has the most number of chances created(17) amongst the five players in the last six games.
Son comes in fourth with 15 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances, and an xG total of 3.19.
Watkins is the last amongst the five players in terms of xG(2.65) in the last six games. He’s however the top for shots inside the box amongst the five players and has also created 10 chances which is the 3rd highest amongst the five players.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Wildcard Guide- Players to Target & Best Drafts
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison to the last 6 games. A total of 68 Shots Inside the Box and 22 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.92, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Spurs come in behind Liverpool, with 69 Shots Inside the Box, 19 Big Chances in Total, and xG at 11.59.
Arsenal come behind Spurs with 58 Shots Inside the Box, 12 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.15.
Aston Villa come behind Arsenal with 67 Shots Inside the Box, 13 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 10.06.
Surprisingly, Man City take the last spot with 50 Shots Inside the Box, 16 Big Chances in Total, and an xG of 9.32. Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Man City are very close in terms of xG and are separated by less than 1.0 xG between them.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Wildcard Guide- Players to Target & Best Drafts
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW10
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal take the first spot, with a 94% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 62% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek vs Sheffield United(H).
Liverpool are behind Arsenal with a 91% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 52% chance of scoring more than 2 goals vs Nottingham Forest.
Aston Villa have a 90% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 50% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Luton.
Man City are second last with a 83% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 31% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Man United. Spurs are last with a 82% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 29% chance of scoring more than 2 goals against Crystal Palace.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Wildcard Guide- Players to Target & Best Drafts
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 69%, while his Projected Points stand at 7.5 for the week.
Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 65%, and the Projected Points at 7.1 this week, giving him the second spot.
Son has an Anytime Returns Projections at 58% and Projected Points at 5.8, which puts him 3rd in this table.
Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections at 55% and Projected Points at 6.4, which puts him joint 3rd with Son.
Lastly, Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections of 55% while the Projected Points stand at 5.8 pushing him to the last spot.
Further Read: FPL Gamewek 10 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 10 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah tops the metrics with a CRF of 7, finishing above Saka who ended up with a CRF of 10. Haaland is 3rd with a CRF of 11. Son is fourth with a cumulative rank factor of 14 whereas Watkins finishes last with a CRF of 17!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW10
When to play your first Wildcard?- Best Windows and Analysis
FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW10 Wildcard Guide- Players to Target & Best Drafts
FPL GW10 Scout Selection- Top Picks with Stats and Analysis
Top FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best FPL GW10 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL GW10 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW10 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW10 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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