After a long break from the Premier League, we are finally back with the Premier League kickstarting again from Friday. And with the Fantasy Premier League restarting, we are back with our captaincy metrics to help you decide on the best captain pick to start your season with.
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and had a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Note: The metrics was done before Kane’s transfer to Bayern Munich was confirmed. We’ll try and update the metrics before the deadline by removing Kane and adding Bruno who finished 6th in our captaincy poll.
Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW1 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW1 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Record breaker and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland tops the polls with 63% of the votes. He’s followed by Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (14%) and Manchester Rashford United’s Marcus(8%). The candidates list is rounded up by Mohammed Salah (3%) and Harry Kane (3%).
Further Read: Mbeumo vs Mitoma vs Eze vs Diaby- 6.5. FPL Midfielders Comparison and Verdict
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 1 Captain picks
Note: We have used the last six games data from the 2022/23 season
Erling Haaland tops our picks for Underlying Numbers. With 19 Shots Inside the Box, 9 Big Chances in total and an xG total of 4.39, as he leads the Attacking Stats factor for players in consideration.
Mohammed Salah, with 20 Shots Inside the Box, 7 Big chances and an xG total of 4.08, takes the second spot.
Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford rounds up the podium places at third amassing 17 Shots Inside the Box, 8 Big Chances and xG total of 3.65.
Harry Kane gets the fourth place with 10 Shots Inside the Box, 6 Big Chances and an xG of 3.07.
Bukayo Saka gets the last spot with 9 Shots Inside the Box, 0 Big Chances and an xG of 1.12.
Further Read: Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 -£12.5 Million) | 23/24 Season
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Note: We have used the last six games data from the 2022/23 season
Manchester United have the best underlying numbers of the teams in comparison in the last 6 games. A total of 67 Shots Inside the Box and 21 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 15.32, which is the highest of all teams in question.
Tottenham come in behind United, with 55 Shots Inside the Box, their 18 Big Chances in Total and xG at 10.75.
Manchester City come behind Tottenham with 54 Shots Inside the Box, 17 Big Chances in Total and an xG of 10.56.
Liverpool take the fourth spot with 59 Shots Inside the Box, 20 Big Chances in Total and an xG of 10.30.
Lastly, Arsenal take the final spot with 54 Shots inside the Box, 11 Big Chances Total and an XG of 6.35
Further Read: FPL Players And Teams To Target From FPL Gameweek 1 To 6
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW1
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal take the first spot, with a 92% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 58% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Manchester United and Manchester City are behind Arteta’s men, with an 89% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 45% chance of scoring more than 2 goals.
Lastly, Tottenham and Liverpool come in the Manchester clubs, with an 75% and 67% chances of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 22% and 23% chances of scoring more than 2 goals, respectively.
Further Read: Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW1 Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 74%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.2 for the week.
Marcus Rashford has an Anytime Returns Projection at 57%, and the Projected Points at 6.5 this week, giving him the second spot.
Totteham’s Harry Kane has an Anytime Returns Projections at 57% and Projected Points at 6.1, which puts him in third place.
Mohammed Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 55% and Projected Points at 5.9, which puts him in fourth place.
Lastly, Bukayo Saka has an Anytime Returns Projections of 51% while the Projected Points stand at 5.9 pushing him to the last spot.
Further Read: 2023/24 Pre-Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 1 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
The record breaker Erling Haaland comes out to be the best option this week, topping the table with a CRF value of 7.
Haaland is followed by Marcus Rashford who takes second place with a CRF value of 8.
Harry Kane(Do not consider as he’s moving to Bayern) takes the third place with a CRF value of 13.
Mohammed Salah takes the fourth place with a CRF value of 14. And lastly, Bukayo Saka takes the last spot with a CRF value of 16.
Readers should note that it’s the first gameweek of the season and last year’s stats might not mean as much, but this method has been working nicely too. I am personally captaining Haaland and haven’t moved away at all.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season
Pre-Season Friendlies Updates & Fixtures
2023/24 FPL Pre Season: All Clubs Friendlies Fixtures & Updates
2023/24 Pre Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams
FPL GW1 Must Read Articles:
FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based On Stats, Analysis, And Matchups
2023/24 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW1 Deadline
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL
FPL GW1 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL Players And Teams To Target From FPL Gameweek 1 To 6
Drafts for FPL GW1:
FPL Gameweek 1 Drafts with Haaland + Salah and Trent Trio
FPL GW1 Drafts with 3-4-3 Formation | 2023/24 FPL Season
Initial GW1 Drafts for the 2023/24 Season with Pros and Cons
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW1 Deadline
Four Players Who Have Never Left My FPL GW1 Draft
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL
FPL Goalkeepers Analysis:
Best FPL Goalkeepers to Target For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Goalkeepers at Each Price Point for the 2023/24 Season
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers
2023/24 FPL Season Positional Analysis:
Defenders:
Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £4.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5-£5.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers
Midfielders:
£4.5 Million FPL Midfielders Watchlist for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5 & £5.5 Million FPL Midfielders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £6.0 -£7.5 Million FPL Midfielders | 2023/24 Season
Mbeumo vs Mitoma vs Eze vs Diaby- 6.5. FPL Midfielders Comparison and Verdict
Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 -£12.5 Million) | 23/24 Season
Forwards:
Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) | 2023/24 Season
Best FPL Forwards in The £6.0 & £6.5M Price Bracket
Best FPL Budget Forwards (£4.5 – £5.5 Million) | 23/24 Season
Ultimate Guide & FPL Calendar:
Ultimate FPL Pre-Season Guide & Tips for the 2023/24 Season
2023/24 FPL Season Schedule: Key Dates, Information & Timeline
Fixture Analysis:
FPL Fixture Analysis For The 2023/24 FPL Season | PL Fixtures
General FPL Blogs:
FPL Team Structure Guide- 6 Different Team Structures with Drafts, Pros and Cons
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
Best FPL Picks Outside Top 6 Teams | 2023/24 FPL Season
FPL Differentials- Players To Watch Ahead Of The 2023/24 Season
FPL Budget Enablers(Top Budget Picks Position wise)
Under Priced FPL Assets from Big 6 Teams
Best Differential FPL Team For The 2023-2024 Season
Players to Avoid in FPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 1
Initial Reaction to FPL Player Price Reveals for the 2023/24 FPL Season
List of Free to Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues Ahead of 23/24 Season
FPL Tips and Best Practices to Have an Enjoyable FPL Season
FPL Team ID- What is it? How to get a Low Team ID for 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Team Names for the 2023/24 FPL Season
If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.
Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?
We’ll be covering team previews for all 20 teams, FPL team structures, must-own players, player comparisons, differential picks, fixture analysis, captaincy metrics, multiple FPL drafts with pros and cons, chip strategy, rules guide, beginners guide, FPL tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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