Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) | 2023/24 Season

Article written by Karan Manik(Do follow on Twitter) on Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) based on stats, upcoming fixtures, and analysis.

Disclaimer: This is my first blog for AAFPL, so I’d request the readers to go a little easy on me!

The new Premier League season is almost upon us and as you all know, the FPL tinkering has well and truly been on full throttle. While the conversation around the ridiculous range of value-for-money midfielders has stolen the limelight, many seem to have forgotten about the plethora of forward options apart from the Norwegian meat shield who of course has become a set-and-forget option.

Therefore, in this blog, I’d like to focus on the striker options who are between the 7 and 8 million range, and not deep diving into Haaland (14.0m) and Kane’s (12.5m) stats who are both bona fide FPL assets. So without wasting much time, let’s dive into the comparison table of the aforementioned strikers based on the season gone by.

Check out the other two parts of our FPL Forwards series – Best FPL Forwards in The £6.0 & £6.5M Price Bracket, Best FPL Budget Forwards (£4.5 – £5.5 Million)

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!

Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m)

7-8M FPL Forwards Comparison Table

• Darwin (7.5), Jesus (8, Now injured), and Watkins (8) seem to be the standout underachievers in terms of xG. This is in line with the fact that all three have historically been known to be below-average or average finishers. The memes around Darwin not being able to hit the ocean from a boat, while slightly exaggerated, do seem to fit the bill. While all can improve their finishing, especially Darwin, who has just played his first season in the Premier League, it is fair to say that they need quite a few chances to hit the back of the net.
• Darwin and Toney (8) seem to be the most creative assets, with 11 and 12 big chances created respectively. Watkins, seems to have overachieved in terms of xA, but with the addition of explosive assets like Moussa Diaby, the Villa frontman could continue to deliver. Toney is of course a non-option as of now due to his ongoing ban.
• Mitrovic (7.5) seems to lead the numbers in terms of %xGI (expected goal involvement percentage). A true talisman for Fulham, he could enter our thinking again if he doesn’t move away from the Premier League.
• Mitrovic and Watkins also lead the tally of shots in the box last season (81 each), perhaps trying to vie away the title of ‘Fox in the Box’ from a certain Jamie Vardy.
• Toney, Watkins, and Wilson (8) lead the way for BPS with 607, 550, and 526 respectively. While Toney accumulated bonus points due to his creativity and shot conversion, Watkins and Wilson both thrived on converting lots of 1v1s to goals which boosted their BPS regardless of other actions.

Since the new Chelsea boys, Nicolas Jackson (7) and Christopher Nkunku(7.5, Now injured) are a hot topic these days, I decided to take a look at their stats from last season with their respective clubs (Villareal and RB Leipzig).

• For some context, Nkunku(Injured now) clocked around 1897 minutes for his team while Jackson was able to secure around 1598 minutes under his belt.
• The shot volume for Nkunku(Injured now) was much higher who mostly played as a second striker for Leipzig, while Jackson was used primarily as a lone striker.
• Both ended up with 4 assists apiece, with similar xA numbers, leaving not much to be discussed in terms of creativity.
• The pair seemed to have overachieved their xG, which could be a testament to their good finishing and something which should be considered while thinking next season.

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Now that we have some key stats and takeaways from last season, let us look at some of these strikers individually to form a more detailed opinion.

Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m)

Ollie Watkins (8.0)

AVL Avg Goals Scored Per game: 1.34

AVL Avg Goals Conceded Per game: 1.21

Fixtures GW 1-6: new(a), EVE(h), bur(a), liv(a), CRY(h) and che(a)

With a tally of 15 goals and 8 assists last term, I expected to see Watkins in far more drafts than I have (granted the FPL twitter bubble is smaller than we perceive). The Englishman seemed to crank it up a notch under Unai Emery and while his xG underachievement continues, he has really developed a knack of being at the right place, at the right time.

The fixtures to start with don’t scream points, since the Villans travel to Newcastle, Burnley, and Liverpool in the first four, but let’s not forget that since Emery’s appointment last November, Villa failed to find the back of the net in only two games that too in April against Man United and in May against Wolves.

An overlooked option, Watkins can make the 8 million price tag look like a joke if he hits the ground running, with penalty duties under his belt as well.

My rating: 4/5

Further Read: FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

Nicolas Jackson (7.0)

CHE Avg Goals Scored Per game: 1.00

CHE Avg Goals Conceded Per game: 1.24

Fixtures GW 1-6: LIV(h), whu(a), LUT(h), NFO(h), bou(a) and AVL(h)

Mauricio Pochettino takes the reins at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea try to forget the nightmare of last season and move on to bigger & better things like the signings of Nkunku and Jackson. With Romelu Lukaku’s transfer saga dragging on, the Chelsea manager has been focusing his energy on the pre-season friendlies and impressive performances of the aforementioned duo.

Nicolas Jackson has already shown his class with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 3 friendlies. While pre-season friendlies are often not the best yardstick to ascertain future success, there are certainly positive signs as can be seen from the manager’s uplifting comments as well. Pochettino saw Nkunku as someone who can play as a no.10 or support striker or even on the wings, a testament to his versatility whereas Jackson has showed early signs of a composed striker who can not only score goals but also link up play beautifully.

Nkunku injury update(August 3):

Looks like Nkunku is set to be out for a long time following the injury he sustained against Dortmund in the last pre-season friendly for Chelsea.

Further Nkunku’s injury and Chelsea’s reluctance to get Valhovic in a deal involving Lukaku going the other side all but confirm that Jackson is the first-choice forward for Chelsea going into GW1.

Chelsea Pre-Season Goals + Assists Summary:

• Maatsen ⚽️⚽️A
• Gallagher ⚽️ ⚽️
• Chilwell ⚽️ A
• Nkunku ⚽️ ⚽️ ⚽️
• Jackson ⚽️⚽️ AAA
• Mudryk ⚽️
• Thiago Silva ⚽️
• Burstow ⚽️
• Chukwuemeka AAA(4.5 million mid in FPL)
• Sterling A
• Enzo Fernandez A
• Angelo Gabriel A
• Casadei A
• Cucurella A

My rating (Jackson): 3.5/5

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Darwin (7.5) and Cody Gakpo (7.5)

LIV Avg Goals Scored Per game: 1.97

LIV Avg Goals Conceded Per game: 1.24

Fixtures GW 1-6: che(a), BOU(h), new(a), AVL(h), wol(a) and WHU(h)

Another season, another chance for Darwin Nunez to prove to his critics that he is worth the expensive price tag that Liverpool acquired him for.  The Uruguayan has slowly built an infamous reputation of missing gilt-edged chances, which are clearly reflected in his xG numbers as well. The counterpoint can be that he is still young and learning the ropes in a new league, waiting to explode, of which he showed signs last season as well. A striker with a poacher’s instinct who also can cut in from the left, Nunez could make a mockery of the 7.5 price tag if given a steady run in the team by Maestro Klopp.

Nunez was well in consideration after starting the pre-season strongly but did not start the last two pre-season games in what was a strong starting lineup from Klopp which once again puts his xMins in doubt.

Cody Gakpo is a bit of a different story as he has now been rebranded as a forward in the game, whereas I believe his appeal was stronger as a midfielder. Having said that, the Dutchman really seemed to have gained Klopp’s favour towards the end of last season and could be a shoe-in replacement for the outgoing Firmino in that ‘false 9/link up striker ala Klopp’ role. It is also worth noting that in Liverpool’s last friendly before GW1 against Darmstadt, Gakpo started in midfield with Luis Diaz, Jota, and Salah playing in attack.

Liverpool assets minutes summary in pre-season

Player	Goals	Assists	Mins	Split
Mo Salah	2	7	269	3*45, 1*75, 1*59
Jota	4	3	239	4*45, 1*59
TAA		1	268	3*45, 1*60, 1*73
Luis Diaz	3		253	4*45, 1*73
Nunez	4	1	210	4*45, 1*30
Gakpo	2	1	268	3*45, 1*60, 1*73
Mac Allister		1	253	4*45, 1*73
Matip		1	210	4*45, 1*30
Konate			239	4*45, 1*59
Van Dijk	1	1	269	3*45, 1*75, 1*59
Szoboszlai		1	214	1*45, 35, 75, 1*59
Robertson		1	254	3*45, 1*60, 1*59

Both Nunez and Gakpo are slight rotation risks due to the fit again Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota, given that Mo Salah is untouchable on the right wing. Hence, I would tread caution unless given some early door hints by Klopp himself.

My rating (Darwin Nunez): 2.5/5

My rating(Gakpo): 2.5/5

Further Read: £4.5Million FPL Midfielders Watchlist for the 2023/24 FPL Season

Callum Wilson (8.0) and Alexander Isak (7.5)

NEW Avg Goals Scored Per game: 1.79

NEW Avg Goals Conceded Per game: 0.87

Fixtures GW 1-6: AVL(h), mci(a), LIV(h), bha(a), BRE(h) and shu(a)

Newcastle United will start the new season on the back of a more than successful campaign, with Champions League qualification all but secured. Even though big things continue to be expected of Howe and Co., their transfer market activity has been rather underwhelming with the most notable additions of Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes.

Due to the bad starting fixtures, most seem to be avoiding Newcastle assets, but dare we forget the heroics of Callum Wilson from last season. The man was scoring goals for fun, ending the season on 0.6 goals per game. Penalty duties add to the appeal while his injury woes which seem to have slightly gotten better do make us hesitant, especially with the fixtures.

Isak, on the other hand, started last season as a better option than Wilson as the Swede hit the ground running but towards the end of the season when both started together, Isak was constantly deployed on the left wing while Wilson hogged the central spaces. The appeal of Isak would only increase if the Englishman were to have a spell on the sidelines, in my opinion.

My rating(Wilson): 3/5

My rating(Isak): 2.5/5

Further Read: List of Free to Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues Ahead of 23/24 Season

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I decided to not delve deep into Fulham and Mitrovic due to strong rumors of the latter changing ships and moving to Saudi, which has further been solidified by the incoming Raul Jimenez from Wolves.

Jesus was initially added to the blog but we have pushed him down in the injured list as he’s out for a few weeks

Not in Consideration due to injury

Gabriel Jesus (8.0)

ARS Avg Goals Scored Per game: 2.32

ARS Avg Goals Conceded Per game: 1.13

Fixtures GW 1-6: NFO(h), cry(a), FUL(h), MUN(h), eve(a) and TOT(h)

Presumably the most popular forward option after Erling Haaland, Jesus has gradually become the perfect 8 million placeholder to start the season with. One of the main reasons being the plethora of wonderful midfield options this season, leading to team coverage dilemmas. Since many have already decided Saka as a no brainer option, that leaves the space for either a second Arsenal midfielder like Martinelli or Odegaard or their striker i.e. Gabriel Jesus (given most will start the season with at least one Arsenal defender or gk).

The fixtures are no doubt one of the best to start with, but the Brazilian’s poor finishing, reflected in his xG underachievement, has always been an underlying issue since his Man City days. On the contrary, we saw a lot of times last season, that his inclusion helped the likes of Saka and especially Martinelli to take up more central spaces due to his dropping deep link up play.  

While he is definitely a good option, I feel the fixtures are clouding or rather creating a smoke screen to hide his average finishing, not to mention the acquisition of Kai Havertz which could also lead to some dynamic changes in their attacking build up.

My rating: 3.5/5

Injury update- Gabriel Jesus(August 3)

Arteta on Gabriel Jesus knee injury: “He had a little procedure this morning, he’s injured unfortunately”. “He’s had some discomfort in his knee that caused him some issues so they had to go in”. “He’s going to be out for a few weeks”.

I hope you enjoyed my first article and were able to gather some food for thought, helping in the infinite draft tinkering that is to follow. Cheers!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2023/24 FPL Season

Pre-Season Friendlies Updates & Fixtures

2023/24 FPL Pre Season: All Clubs Friendlies Fixtures & Updates
2023/24 Pre Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams 

FPL GW1 Must Read Articles:
FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based On Stats, Analysis, And Matchups
2023/24 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks To Consider Ahead Of GW1 Deadline
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL
FPL GW1 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL Players And Teams To Target From FPL Gameweek 1 To 6 

Drafts for FPL GW1:

FPL Gameweek 1 Drafts with Haaland + Salah and Trent Trio
FPL GW1 Drafts with 3-4-3 Formation | 2023/24 FPL Season 
Initial GW1 Drafts for the 2023/24 Season with Pros and Cons
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW1 Deadline
Four Players Who Have Never Left My FPL GW1 Draft
FPL GW1 Team Reveal & Strategy – AllAboutFPL

FPL Goalkeepers Analysis:

Best FPL Goalkeepers to Target For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Goalkeepers at Each Price Point for the 2023/24 Season
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

2023/24 FPL Season Positional Analysis:

Defenders:
Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £4.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5-£5.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2023/24 FPL Season 
FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations- Defenders and Goal Keepers

Midfielders:
£4.5 Million FPL Midfielders Watchlist for the 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £5 & £5.5 Million FPL Midfielders For The 2023/24 FPL Season
Best £6.0 -£7.5 Million FPL Midfielders | 2023/24 Season
Mbeumo vs Mitoma vs Eze vs Diaby- 6.5. FPL Midfielders Comparison and Verdict
Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 -£12.5 Million) | 23/24 Season

Forwards:
Best Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £8.0m) | 2023/24 Season
Best FPL Forwards in The £6.0 & £6.5M Price Bracket
Best FPL Budget Forwards (£4.5 – £5.5 Million) | 23/24 Season

Ultimate Guide & FPL Calendar:

Ultimate FPL Pre-Season Guide & Tips for the 2023/24 Season
2023/24 FPL Season Schedule: Key Dates, Information & Timeline

Fixture Analysis:
FPL Fixture Analysis For The 2023/24 FPL Season | PL Fixtures

General FPL Blogs:
FPL Team Structure Guide- 6 Different Team Structures with Drafts, Pros and Cons
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
Best FPL Picks Outside Top 6 Teams | 2023/24 FPL Season
FPL Differentials- Players To Watch Ahead Of The 2023/24 Season
FPL Budget Enablers(Top Budget Picks Position wise)
Under Priced FPL Assets from Big 6 Teams
Best Differential FPL Team For The 2023-2024 Season
Players to Avoid in FPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 1
Initial Reaction to FPL Player Price Reveals for the 2023/24 FPL Season
List of Free to Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues Ahead of 23/24 Season
FPL Tips and Best Practices to Have an Enjoyable FPL Season
FPL Team ID- What is it? How to get a Low Team ID for 2023/24 FPL Season
Best FPL Team Names for the 2023/24 FPL Season

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

Link to all our 2023/24 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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