FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW21 Preview

The coming weeks are crucial for FPL managers as teams are starting to get in shape post the World Cup. Blanks and potential doubles will be clear too soon. Therefore, it is extremely vital to utilize each and every transfer keeping all those factors in mind. This blog will provide you with our Top 6 FPL GW21 Differential Picks with <10% ownership with stats, justification, and detailed analysis.

Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including Fixtures to target, Predicted GW21 Lineups, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, transfer trends, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Note: The TSB mentioned is at the time of writing and is subject to change

FPL Gameweek 21 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Riyad Mahrez vs Wolves(H), £7.5, TSB: 4.5%

It is that time of the season where Riyad Mahrez is hot in terms of form and minutes. Indeed, Mahrez finished as joint top scorer in GW20 as he recorded an assist and two goals against Spurs last night. The Algerian has 2 assists and 3 goals since the restart and only failed to start one game out of five, a game in which he came off the bench to score the winner.

Since GW17, only March has more FPL points than the Algerian. In this period Mahrez has created 4 big chances, only KDB, Bruno, and Trippier have created more in that time. Given the fact that we are all searching for assets other Haaland from City, Mahrez’s form gives him the edge.

Meanwhile, Wolves are joint sixth worst in the league for % of chances conceded down the left hand side of their defense. Mahrez would be looking to capitalize on the apparent Achilles’ heel.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW21

Pervis Estupiñán vs Leicester(A), £4.5, TSB:0.9%

Brighton kept their first clean sheet in 8 games last time out as they swotted aside Liverpool by 3-0. Although, they have conceded a lot of goals since De Zerbi they have been a bit unlucky. The Seagulls are fifth best for NPxGA since GW9 in the league.

Looking at Brighton’s run of games, more shutouts could be on the horizon. Since GW14 (when Estupinian started playing full 90 minutes regularly, only 4 defenders have made more key passes than the Ecuadorian(7). Besides, as we saw in the World Cup, he has got that assist potential.

Meanwhile, only Wolves(6) have scored fewer goals at home than Leicester City(9) this season. Furthermore, only Bournemouth have a worse xG than the Foxes in their own backyard. Back-to-back clean sheets is very much on the cards for De Zerbi’s men.

Brendan Rodgers’ men have an apparent weakness down their left flank. They have conceded 28% of their chances down that flank, which is the third worst in tally in the league this campaign.

Further Read: Mitoma Vs March Comparison Ahead Of FPL GW21

Serge Aurier vs Bournemouth(A), £4.5, TSB: 0.7%

Nottingham Forest’s upturn in form has coincided with Serge Aurier earning a spot in the starting eleven. They have kept 5 clean sheets in the last 9 matches, the Ivorian has started all of them. He has registered a goal and 8 bonus points in this period.

Having conceded 23 goals in their first ten matches, Forest have given away only 11 goals in their last 9 matches. That is the joint seventh-best tally in the league in that period. As for Aurier, only Trippier(78), Shaw(59), and Burn(49) have registered more FPL points since GW12 than the Forest defender(48). He is also sixth best for BPS in that time.

Except for the Man City game, the immediate run-in for Steve Cooper’s men looks clean sheet friendly. For starters, their FPL GW21 opponent Bournemouth have the worst tally for xG at home so far this season. The chances of Aurier and co keeping a clean sheet is very high!

Further Read: FPL GW21 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas

James Ward-Prowse vs Aston Villa(H), £6.2, TSB: 5.1%

James Ward-Prowse produced a stunning second half performance to help Saints earn their first win since GW12. The Southampton captain took his goal tally to 5 last week. He also has 2 assists thus far. Five of the seven attacking returns have come in the last five games. He is taking more attacking positions since the return of Lavia.

Since GW17, The Saints skipper has the ninth best points tally in FPL. He is joint top for goals along with getting 3 big chances in the period. He had zero big chances before GW17. As we can see from the above graphic, it is very evident that the midfielder is playing in much more of an advanced role since the World Cup.

JWP has 2 goals and 3 assists in his career against Aston Villa. As for Villa, since Emery took charge, only three teams have given away more big chances than his team. Ward-Prowse and co will be looking to take full advantage of that.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Wilfried Gnonto vs Brentford(H), £5.0, TSB: 0.4%

One of the stand-out players in the league since the restart post World Cup has been Leeds’ Wilfried Gnonto. The youngster has started every game and has played 90 minutes in 3 of the 4 games. He has scored a goal in the process too. Overall this season he has 1 goal and 1 assist in 447 minutes of action.

Since the restart, only Rodrigo has had more shots in the box among his compatriots than Gnonto. Meanwhile, the youngster is at the joint top for big chances with Harrison. He is also the second-best xGI in this period.

Meanwhile, Gnonto produced a stunning performance in the FA cup replay against Cardiff last night. One of the goals being an absolute scorcher! Given the fact that Jesse Marsch’s men have an amazing run of games coming up along with a potential double in 22, Gnonto might be an astute buy.

As for their opponents- Brentford, although they have had a good season, they do have the fourth-worst NPxGA in the league this campaign.

Pro Tip: At the moment in FPL, we are underloaded in the forward position. Gnonto not only acts as a good third forward, he is also an excellent enabler for us to probably upgrade in midfield to someone like Bruno.

Further Read: FPL GW21 Odds Preview: Goals, Clean Sheets & Predicted Points

Kaoru Mitoma vs Leicester(A), £5.0, TSB: 1.7%

New Gameweek, Mitoma makes our differential list yet again. The Japanese international registered an assist last time out against Liverpool, getting 6 points in the process. However, he could have got a lot more had he converted his chances.

As stated earlier, Brighton have among the best set of fixtures in FPL. Their next two opponents- Leicester and Bournemouth have an apparent weakness down the left flank. As we can see from the above graphic, these two are the worst in the league for chances conceded down that flank. As we know, that is exactly where Mitoma operates. A match made in heaven!

Although Solly March has been hyped up a lot following his extraordinary display against Liverpool, we still feel Mitoma is the better option. As we can see, Mitoma has had 3 more big chances than March. Eye test suggests that Mitoma is more likely to score than his compatriot. Check out- Detailed Mitoma vs March Comparison and Verdict

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW22

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW22
Top FPL GW22 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Comparison of Best FPL Triple Captain Options in FPL DGW22/23
FPL Gameweek 22 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW22 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down Key Dilemmas(Includes Cancelo Replacements)
FPL Double Gameweek 22 Players To Target | FPL DGW22
FPL GW22 Scout Picks with Stats and Justification
GW22 Predicted Lineups, Injury News, Press Conference updates for all 20 teams
FPL GW22 Wildcard Guide- Best Drafts, Key notes and Players to consider
FPL DGW22 – Best FPL Budget Midfielders/ Almiron Replacements
FPL GW22 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Stats of Shithousery | GW21 Team of the Weak

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 21 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering player comparisons, differential picks, transfer trends, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, eye test report, fixture analysis, captaincy metrics, FPL GW21 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

Our content is always free and if you like our content do drop a comment, follow, subscribe, and support us. Your love is what keeps us going:)

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