FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Gameweek 11 Deadline

After a resounding Gameweek 9, managers were once again left scratching their heads after as GW 10 sprung up a bunch of surprises which meant that the average points came down to 42. Having said that, we see that the league is starting to form a pattern, as a result of which we are all settling down to a template team. Some teams are having fixture swings for a brief while, and the question arises whether we should cash in on them? That is why we are here with yet another set of interesting options to choose from for managers. In this blog, we’ll be looking at the top six differential picks for FPL GW11.

Note: The ownership given is at the time of writing and is subject to change.

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FPL GW11 Differential picks (<10% TSB)

Wilfried Zaha vs Wolves(H)

Crystal Palace pulled off the biggest shock of the season yet, last week, as they beat the Champions in their own backyard, by 2-0. Zaha scored the opening goal and was also instrumental in getting Aymeric Laporte sent off, which made the life of the Eagles a lot easier. Patrick Viera’s men have now played five of the big six and Leicester and WestHam on top of that already. This means that their matchups coming up in the next couple of months are winnable.

Five of Zaha’s eleven goals last season came against teams that finished in the bottom eight last season. These are the sort of teams the Ivorian does well against normally. Six out of his next nine games are against such teams, before which of course he faces Wolves in FPL GW11.

Wolves(41%) are the third worst in the league when it comes to percentage of chances conceded through the center, only Aston Villa and Leeds have conceded more. That is exactly where Zaha gets most of his shots from, as we can see in the below graphic.

Further Read: Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW11 ~ Mbeumo vs Cornet vs ESR vs Gallagher and Wilson vs Jimenez

Bryan Mbeumo vs Norwich(H)

Can we call him the unluckiest player in the league or is he just Stewart Downing 2.0? Whatever it is, the fact that Bryan Mbeumo has scored just 2 goals so far this season is unbelievable. The Brentford man has so far had 5 big chances with an xG of 2.49, hitting the woodwork as many as 6 times already.

Mbeumo missed last week’s match against Burnley, where the Bees lost their third straight game. They will be looking to bounce back this and no better opponent than bottom club Norwich. The Canaries are the clear whipping boys this season. They have conceded 25 goals in 10 matches, 15 of them in their 5 away games.

Pro Tip: Brentford play four of the bottom five in the next six matches, as a result of which it would be wise to bring an attacker in from their team, on top of having a defender or two.

Further Read: FPL GW11 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft

Neal Maupay vs Newcastle(H)

Neal Maupay had started off the season in great fashion, scoring 4 goals in the first 6 matches. However, he has dipped in the last 4 matches, not starting the last two too. However, that is arguably due to the fact that the Seagulls played the best two sides in the league.

Brighton have a very good run of games all the way up and until GW19, with four of the next six matches being up against the bottom seven teams, starting with Newcastle in FPL GW11. The Magpies are the second leakiest side in the league, giving away 23 goals so far, only Norwich have conceded more.

Despite playing significantly lesser minutes than his counterparts, Maupay has the best xG(2.75) and also had more big chances(5) than any of his teammates. Furthermore, only Dunk and Trossard have had more shots in the box than the Frenchman.

Stat of the day

Brighton won both of last season’s matches against Newcastle by 3-0. Neal Maupay was involved four of the six goals(3 goals 1 assist).

Further Read: What To Do With Michail Antonio in FPL – Keep or Sell?

Ollie Watkins vs Southampton(A)

After scoring 14 goals and assisting 9, Watkins would have wanted to continue last season’s form into this campaign too. However, due to injury and indeed change in position the Englishman has found goals hard to come by. Truth be told, the arrival of Danny Ings hasn’t helped him one bit.

From the above two heatmaps it is clear to see that this season, Watkins has operated more on the left side and his shots from the center have also been impacted to an extent. However, the injury to Ings means that for the second game running Watkins is likely to play as a lone striker in FPL GW11 too against Southampton.

Watkins- Stat Attack:

Watkins has the most shots(10) and most shots inside the box(9) among forwards since GW7 which has resulted in 3 big chances, 2 goals and an assist from the last 4 games.

Fun Fact

Since start of last season, Watkins has been on the losing side on six separate occasions when he has scored, more than any other player in that time. Dean Smith’s men have lost both of the games the striker has netted in this season.

Further Read: FPL GW11 Best Budget Picks Based on Form & Fixtures

Youri Tielemans vs Leeds(A)

Tielemans has been in sublime form of late notching up 30 FPL points from the last 5 games averaging 6 point per game courtesy- 3 goals, 2 assists. He is always up to take up a shot when there is space and setting up Vardy/Ihenacho on the counters. Interestingly, his FPL GW11 opponent Leeds have conceded 46% of their chances from the center which is the highest among any team in the league. Tielemans has returned in 4 out of the last 6 games and should be a good differential shout for FPL GW11 and for the good fixture run till GW17.

Bonus point magnet:

Tielemans has scored 3 goals in 3 different games this season and has secured 6 bonus points out of a possible 9 bonus points from those games. If he gets a goal, surely he is among the bonus points if not for all three bonus points. This is further supported by the fact that, Tielemans has the second best BPS score(240) among midfielders in the league this season- Only behind Salah(348).

Tielemans- Stat Attack:

• Tielemans has the second best xA(2.42), second for key passes(19), joint second for big chances created(4) among midfielders in the league since GW5.
• Does not shy away for a shot- 19 shots since GW5 which is the 5th highest among midfielders in the league.

Further Read: What To Expect From Antonio Conte At Tottenham? | Tactical Analysis

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW11:

Hudson Odoi(5.3) vs Burnley(H), TSB: 0.6%

Hudson Odoi has had 2 successive starts under Tuchel due to injuries to Lukaku and Werner. Across both the games, he had one goal, one assist, one big chance and 4 key passes. Hudson Odoi is up against a Burnley side who have conceded the most shots inside the box(105), third worst xCS(2.0), 5th worst xGC(16.8) and have just one clean sheet to so far. He continued his great form during the mid week Champions league game against Malmo with a world class assist. He could be a good one week punt for FPL GW11 before Lukaku and Werner return to full fitness.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW11:

Top FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks Based on Analysis and Metrics
FPL GW11 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
Three Top Picks(Premium, Budget, Defender) for FPL Gameweek 11
What To Do With Michail Antonio in FPL – Keep or Sell?
FPL GW11 Best Budget Picks Based on Form & Fixtures
FPL GW11 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW11 ~ Mbeumo vs Cornet vs ESR vs Gallagher and Wilson vs Jimenez
What To Expect From Antonio Conte At Tottenham? | Tactical Analysis
FPL GW11 Transfer Trends Analysis – Best Transfer Combinations
FPL GW10 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW10 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 11 blogs.

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