Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW11

This week, we’re going to focus on some potential Antonio replacements, and try to break down that very competitive £5.5m-£6m midfielder position ahead of FPL GW11.

As always, a huge thank you to everyone who offers some suggestions for player comparisons – I can’t get around to including them all, but I do focus on the players, positions, and price-points that crop up a lot in discussions mid-week. After the next International Break, I plan on incorporating some more data sets to make each comparison more thorough.

[All statistics taken from FFSCOUT]

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW11 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has an 9/10 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW10. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 11 blogs.

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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Jimenez (£7.6m) vs Wilson (£7.3m):

With the second most-picked player Antonio hitting questionable form and a mixed fixture run, you may be looking to replace him. Alternatively, you could be looking to move on an under-performing Toney or Armstrong.

After a rocky start, it’s lovely to see Jimenez back in form. Meanwhile, Wilson is bagging some consistent points. Both are likely to be their respective teams’ main goal threat, and with so many popular picks falling short they are going to be among the most transferred in assets over the next few weeks.

Jimenez vs Wilson: The Stats

	Jimenez	Wilson
Goals	2 (0.2)	4 (0.7)
Assists	1 (0.1)	0
xGI	4.03 (0.40)	2.85 (0.50)
Post-Shot xG	1.66 (0.2)	2 (0.3)
Goal Attempts	22 (2.2)	14 (2.3)
Shots in Box	19	11
Big Chances	6 (0.60)	5 (0.80)
Penalty Area Touches	52	27
Crosses	2	1

Although they aren’t worlds apart, Wilson slightly edges Jimenez on average, but his data is a little skewed.

Jimenez is among the top ten strikers for xGI, goal attempts, and shots inside the box. However, his regular starting spot has been brought into question after he was benched against Aston Villa. The general consensus is that he is definitely Wolves’ first-choice striker, and it is players around him like Hwang and Traore who will be rotated more heavily.

Jimenez’s Heatmaps

Wilson’s Heatmaps

Wolves vs Newcastle at a Glance

	Wolves	Newcastle
Goals	11	11
Penalty Area Touches	214 (10th)	199 (13th)
Chances Created	91 (10th)	83 (14th)
Goal Attempts	121 (11th)	112 (15th)
Shots on Target	37 (joint 10th)	29 (the 2nd lowest)
Shots Conceded	114 (4th)	163 (the most of all teams)
Goals Conceded	10	23

It’s clear that Wolves have posed a much greater attacking threat than Newcastle. However, this can’t be pinned down to just the opening fixtures, as both teams have had fairly similar fixture difficulties. Therefore, Wolves and Jimenez have the edge here.

Wolves	Newcastle
cry	bha
WHU	BRE
nor	ars
BUR	NOR
LIV	BUR
mci	lei
bha	liv

Looking at this, it’s quite difficult to argue strongly for one player. Both teams face some struggling sides, but neither hit a consistent run of favourable fixtures. However, to be precise:

• Overall, Newcastle’s next six opponents have conceded more shots than Wolves’ upcoming opponents
• Newcastle’s next opponents have also conceded more big chances

So, on paper, Newcastle are facing weaker defensive teams. However, Newcastle haven’t had as great an attacking threat as Wolves.

Jimenez vs Wilson: The Verdict

This is definitely a tight decision, and one that you could justify going either way.

For me, Jimenez seems to be the safer option. Wolves have played some great football over the last few weeks and are, if anything, unlucky to have not secured some points against United and Spurs.

However, I can see Wilson being a really nice differential from now until around GW15.

Further Read: What To Expect From Antonio Conte At Tottenham? | Tactical Analysis

Gallagher (£5.7m) vs Mbeumo (£5.6m) vs Cornet (£6m) vs Smith Rowe (£5.6m)

This week, we’re taking a huge look at the budget midfielders, who have all racked up some impressive scores.

Gallagher, Mbeumo, and Cornet, and Smith-Rowe have had some (mostly) unexpected break-out seasons, and with Kane, Lukaku, and Bruno falling short of their price tags, this price-point is a highly contested one. It may be that one asset is the stand-out player to get, or perhaps a combination of these picks is necessary to maximise your budget.

The Stats

	Gallagher	Mbeumo	Cornet	ESR
Goals	0.3 0 (3)	0.20 (2)	0.80 (4)	0.30 (3)
Assists	2	0	0	0
xGI	0.50 (4.18)	0.40 (4.03)	0.20 (1.23)	0.20 (2.49)
Post-Shot xG	0.40 (3.50)	0.30 (2.33)	0.40 (1.9)	0.20 (1.71)
Goal Attempts	2.3 (21)	2.4 (22)	1.6 (8)	1.4 (14)
Shots in Box	13	14	6	12
Big Chances	0.40 (4)	0.60 (5)	0.40 (2)	0.20 (2)
Penalty Area Touches	31	38	10	28
Crosses	39	15	5	15

• Gallagher and Mbeumo are among the top ten midfielders for xGI
• Mbeumo is among the top ten midfielders for shots inside the box
• Mbeumo and Gallagher are among the top ten midfielders for big chances

Looking at this, Gallagher and Mbeumo are the ones who make the best case, as the most consistent of the lot. However, it’s unfortunate that we don’t have as much data for Cornet, because he’s been getting some huge numbers in such a short space of time. It’s also unfortunate that Palace, Brentford, and Burnley are arguably very inconsistent teams, so putting our trust in them may be difficult.

Nevertheless, Smith-Rowe, although putting in some great performances, hasn’t quite hit the same level, and falls slightly behind the others for attempts, shots, and big chances.

I think looking at their respective teams is going to be very important here.

Gallagher’s Heatmaps

Mbeumo’s Heatmaps

Cornet’s Heatmaps

Smith-Rowe’s Heatmaps

	Palace	Brentford	Burnley	Arsenal
Goals	13	12	10	12
Penalty Area Touches	204	193	175	228
Chances Created	79	76	86	107
Goal Attempts	109	116	118	140
Shots on Target	30	36	37	45
Shots Conceded	122	115	155	149
Goals Conceded	14	12	16	13

Although Smith-Rowe falls slightly short of the other options, Arsenal definitely come out on top as the team with the most attacking threat. What’s clear is that the attacking returns are spread out more over the Arsenal side, whereas Gallagher and Cornet seem to be a huge focal point in their teams.

After Arsenal, it really is quite an even playing field. Although most FPL managers will be sceptical of Burnley, they have registered more chances created, goal attempts, and shots on target than Palace and Brentford.

Crystal Palace	Brentford	Burnley	Arsenal
WOL	NOR	che	WAT
bur	new	CRY	liv
AVL	EVE	TOT	NEW
lee	tot	wol	mun
mun	lee	new	eve
EVE	WAT	WHU	SOU
SOU	MUN	WAT	WHU

Looking at this, I would still be wary of making a move for Cornet – Burnley will soon face Chelsea and Tottenham, and will definitely be going into those games the least favourite. However, after their win over Brentford, I can see why some would want to bring in Cornet as soon as possible, while he is still so sparsely owned.

Arsenal also have a questionable fixture run – facing Liverpool, United, Everton, and West Ham soon – that would maybe put me off owning ESR, especially when other options have nicer fixtures.

I can understand taking advantage of Brentford’s next two matches against Norwich and Newcastle, but after that Mbeumo may be taking up a bench spot or drawing some blanks. I actually think Palace have a nice little fixture run from now to GW14, so Gallagher would be a good player to bet on.

Gallagher vs Mbeumo vs Cornet vs ESR: The Verdict

I still stand by the fact that the other assets here are more appealing to me than Cornet, just because with him I feel like I would be chasing last week’s points and I’m still not so convinced that Burnley will be scoring consistently.

I think the easier set-and-forget option is Gallagher based on Palace’s upcoming fixtures, but taking advantage of Mbeumo against Norwich and Newcastle is also a popular move – just keep in mind that you may have to move him on or bench him in some of the games afterwards.

Smith-Rowe is also an option who may have to be rotated over the next few weeks, but maybe in combination with someone like Mbeumo or Gallagher he could have a more long-term place in your squad.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW11:

What To Expect From Antonio Conte At Tottenham? | Tactical Analysis
FPL GW10 Sunday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW10 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test

Link to all our FPL Gameweek 11 blogs.

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