FPL GW4 Preview: Early Season Trends and Analysis

FPL GW4 deadline is approaching towards us slowly as the International break is coming to an end. A chaotic end to the transfer window saw Ronaldo making his return to Manchester United which was the highlight!! Kane staying at Spurs would be a huge boost for them while Saul arrived at Chelsea for a season-long loan. In this FPL GW4 preview article we will take a look at stats, players to look out for, fixture swings, and much more.

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FPL GW4 Preview

Top Performers so far this FPL season

In this section of the FPL GW4 preview, I will talk about a few players which have been in the points and have put in great performances in the first 3 gameweeks.

• Trent Alexander Arnold -7.5m – Def

Playing really well and is bound to get attacking returns. Liverpool are looking solid at the back with Van Dijk back and CS are a bonus for him as everyone says! He has the highest xA among defenders (1.76) and second-highest overall. 5 shots, xG of 0.38, 3 big chances created and 2 clean sheets make him an all-round threat.

• Sergio Regulion – 5.2m – Def

Spurs have kept 3 clean sheets despite having an xGC ( expected goals conceded) of 3.9 over the first 3 gameweeks. Regulion has got an xA of 0,13 which would surely improve now in my opinion. He’s nailed on the left-hand side and provides good value. Has decent fixtures with cry, CHE, ars, AVL, and new in the next 5 gameweeks.

• Mo Salah – 12.5m – Mid

Can never go wrong when you have Mo Salah. One of the best and safest options out there. Surprising to see he has been transferred out by 10000 managers since the international break started. Salah has scored 2 goals, provided 2 assists and plays Leeds (A), Palace and Brentford (A) in the next 3. His xG of 1.72 (4th), 13 shots (2nd) and 30 points (2nd) make him a no brainer pick

• Mason Greenwood – 7.7m – Mid

Greenwood has grabbed on to his chance for sure with 3 goals in the first 3 matches. Even though his xG of 0.97 is low, he has been sharp and getting in good areas. With Rashford still out and Sancho not fully fit he is set to keep his place and could be a great double-up option with Ronaldo.

• Said Benrahma – 6.4m – Mid

Benrahma has gone from under 10% ownership in gameweek 1 to over 30% now. He is currently the 4th highest points scorer with 2 goals and 2 assists. He has an xG of 1.29, xA of 0.78 during this time and is a great budget pick.

• Ferran Torres – 7.1m – Mid

Playing as an OOP player (out of position) in the striker/cf role Ferran Torres has caught the eye of many managers with his stunning performance against Arsenal where he got 2 goals and an assist (18 points). He is set to play there a lot this season and has an xG of 1.50. Will surely be caught up in the Pep Roulette as one can never predict when he misses out big expect him so score big whenever he starts.

• Michael Antonio – 7.9m – Fwd

A player with crazy performances and stats whenever he is fit, Antonio has started this season with a bang. 4 goals (1st) , 4 asssits (1st) 40 points!! This man is on fire. Managers who started with him and Benrahma have been in for a treat. With an xG of 3.39 (1st), xA of 1.90 (1st), 16 shots (1st) and 13 of them in the box his stats and performances are too good to ignore.

• Calvert-Lewin – 8.2m – Fwd

DCL has started the season well with a goal in each of the first 3 matches. Long-term fixtures are great and he can consistently deliver points as we saw last season. His numbers are good too as he has an xG of 2,98 (2nd), 11 Shots in the box (2nd) and 4 Big Chances (2nd). On penalties too this season which is a big plus and bonus for managers getting him.

Some other players who have scored good points so far this season:

• Hugo Lloris – 5.6m – GK
• Aymeric Laporte – 5.5m – Def
• Pontus Jansson – 4.6m – Def
• Diogo Jota – 7.6m – Mid
• Heung-Min Son – 10.1m – Mid
• Gabriel Jesus – 8.6m – Fwd

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target and Avoid

Budget Midfielders to target from FPL GW4

There are a few budget options that have emerged during the start of the season. Managers on a wildcard and those looking to fit an extra premium in their team are turning their attention towards them.

These are a few popular FPL budget midfielder options ahead of FPL GW4 that are not heavily owned :

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• Raphinha – 6.5m (Leeds)
• Traore – 6m (Wolves)
• Sarr– 6m (Watford)
• Gray – 5.5m (Everton)
• Smith Rowe – 5.5m (Arsenal)

Fixture Swings for teams starting from FPL GW4:

Teams to target which have great fixtures coming up:

Wolves

Attacking :  
Goals - 0 (20th)
xG - 4.4 (9th)
Shots - 57 (3rd)  
SiB - 36 (3rd)
Big Chances - 4 (11th)

Defensive :
Clean Sheets - 0
Goals Conceded - 3 (7th)
xGC - 3.8 (10th) 

Wolves Fixtures – (GW4 – GW10)

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target and Avoid

Leeds

Attacking :  
Goals - 4 (8th)
xG - 3.4 (12th)
Shots - 39 (9th)
SiB - 19 (15th)
Big Chances - 5 (10th) 

Defensive :
Clean Sheets - 0
Goals Conceded - 8 (18th)
xGC - 5.8 (17th)

Leeds Fixtures – (GW4 – GW10)

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target and Avoid

Cristiano Ronaldo / BruNO

With over 1000000 transfers in over the break, Cristiano Ronaldo is becoming a very popular choice for his return to Old Trafford against Newcastle. On the other hand, Bruno Fernandes has suffered a price drop from 12.1 to 12m with over 600000 managers selling him.

Ronaldo will most likely be the first-choice penalty taker (this is my guess. would still need to wait and watch) and becoming a great captaincy candidate for the next few weeks where he faces Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), and Aston Villa (H). If penalties are not with Fernandes there is not much appeal to keep him with his hefty price tag of 12m. Over the last 2 gameweeks Fernandes has got no returns and just has 1 shot on target, an xG of 0.24 and an xA of 0.58.

Further Read: Why You Don’t Need to Wildcard This Early Into The 2021/22 FPL Season

Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW4 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has been delivering consistently with a 100% record this year. Last week the metric predicted Antonio as the best captaincy candidate ahead of Salah, Son, and Kane and he scored a monster haul once again. Stay tuned for the GW4 Captaincy metric to see who tops it!

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”13″]

The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.

Overperforming Players from the first three weeks

• Mason Greenwood – 7.7 – Mid

Greenwood has been great and looks sharp. He’s scored in all three matches and got 26 points as a result. His 3 goals come from tough shots/angles as he has an xG of just under 1 (0.97). Even though he is a very clinical finisher this end product can not be considered sustainable which such low xG and just 4 shots on target so far.

• Heung-Min Son – 10.1m – Mid

Son has scored 2 goals so far one being a lucky freekick against Watford in gw3. His goal against Man City in gw1 was a very good finish even though he just had an xG of 0,21 that game. His 23 points have been a big bonus for managers owning him considering his xG and xA of 0.73 and 0.34 respectively.

• Danny Ings – 8m – Fwd

A penalty goal in the final minute on his debut for Villa and a spectacular finish in the next match has Ings with 19 points. His 2 goals so far come with just 4 shots (3 on target). Aston Villa and Ings are not looking very sharp and managers should look to sell him now with a tough run of games coming.

Further Read: Why You Don’t Need to Wildcard This Early Into The 2021/22 FPL Season

Underperforming Players from the first four weeks

Wolves have been a major talk of a team underperforming so far. Their attacking and defensive stats have been great but despite this they have conceded in every game and not scored yet.

• Adama Traore – 6m – Mid

Traore has been very lively and looking like a big threat with his dribbling skills and speed but has not been able to convert those chances. His xG of 1.30 is 8th among all mids and he has an xA of 0.70. With 12 shots and 2 big chances coming his way the returns should be on their way now surely with the easy set of fixtures Wolves have now.

• Raul Jimenez – 7.4m – Fwd

One of the most consistent forwards over the past seasons Jimenez is back from his injury and looks fit. He’s playing more of a creative role with teammates Traore and Trincao having a higher xG than him. He has 12 shots (11 in the box) with just 1 being on target. With an xG of 0.46 and an xA of 0.69 Jimenez can be a good long term option with the fixtures he has.

Another player who has had great chances coming his way has been Raheem Sterling. Even though his minutes have been limited (131) he has scored just 1 goal (xG of 1.66) from 7 shots (5 in the box) and 3 big chances. A one to watch out for as he has a proven record scoring 200+ points in the previous seasons.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 4:

FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target and Avoid
Why You Don’t Need to Wildcard This Early Into The 2021/22 FPL Season
Bruno Fernandes Hold or Sell Going Into FPL GW4 | Stats Analysis
FPL GW3 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
Fixture Analysis For Optimal Wildcard Strategy | FPL 2021/22 Season

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4?

We’ll be covering Gameweek three eye test analysis and review, fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 4, differential picks, Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek four, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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