This FPL Gameweek 38 blog is written by FPL Architect. He is an FPL writer now writing weekly threads on Twitter and weekly articles here on allaboutfpl.com. He likes to combine eye tests and stats when making FPL decisions. Do give him a follow on Twitter. Check out his previous blogs here.
For the last game week of the season, I look at the players to buy, hold and sell in FPL Gameweek 38.
Players to buy ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:
Patrick Bamford (£6.6) – Leeds
Ownership: 43.6%
With fans coming back to Elland Road for the last game Leeds will no doubt want to finish the season strong against already relegated West Brom. Who’s better to lead the line than the man with 27 goal involvements in the PL this season, Patrick Bamford?
The Englishman has averaged an xG of 0.44 per game over the last 6 games and backed up by creative forces such as Raphinha, Jack Harrison, and Rodrigo, I can definitely see Bamford adding to his goal tally against West Brom, a team with 14 goals conceded in their last 6 games.
Bamford is a perfect player to spend your last transfer of the season on. He has been consistently good this season and facing a terrible-looking WBA in GW 38, owners could be in for a big haul here.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Matchups – A Posse of Little Princes and Player Comparisons
Sadio Mane (£11.8) – Liverpool
Ownership: 6.9%
Liverpool have exactly everything to play for in the last game of the season, given their situation where a win against Crystal Palace takes them into the Top 4 and secures qualification for next season’s Champions League.
They are going up against a Palace side that have conceded 12 goals in their last 6 games and with nothing to play for, I expect them to concede ever more against Liverpool. Mohamed Salah is the obvious option from Liverpool, as he is on penalties and generally scores more goals than Mane, but I believe that the double-up can bear fruit this week.
Mane almost matches Salah for xGI in Liverpool’s last 6 games (0.76 vs 0.87) and even though it’s easy to think of his season as a bad one, he has managed 20 goal involvements in the PL. With a low ownership, Mane is the way to go for people looking to climb the ranks.
Further Read: Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
Players to hold ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:
Jesse Lingard (£6.7) – West Ham
Ownership: 29.5%
The heavily owned Jesse Lingard has after a period with 9 goal involvements in 4 games only managed 1 assist, no goals, in his last 5. However, we can still see that Lingard is involved in the West Ham attacks, with an xGI of 0.31 per game in his last 6 games, but the stats are in no way outstanding.
That’s why I would not recommend buying Lingard if you don’t already own him, I believe that Michail Antonio is a way better option if you want to target West Ham this week. But if you have Lingard I wouldn’t advice you to sell either. Why?
Because he goes up against a Southampton team that have conceded 9 goals in 6 games and 14 shots per game during this time. It’s a fixture that’s too good to justify selling Lingard, but it’s probably not the best move to buy either.
Further Read: Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
Defenders – All teams
The second player to hold is not a player, it is many players. More exactly, all your defenders. Unless you have injuries or suspensions in your backline I don’t think you should bother spending transfers on it. Why?
The last gameweek of the season often sees a lot of free flowing, attacking football which will generally mean lower chances of clean sheets for the many teams that don’t have anything important to play for. Except Trent and maybe Stuart Dallas I don’t see many defenders with a high ceiling this week.
However, there are a lot of attackers with an extremely high ceiling this week, for instance, the two guys I recommended you to buy, Sadio Mane and Patrick Bamford, so all this summed up makes me believe that your last transfers of the season can come to better use than making defender transfers.
Further Read: Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
Players to sell ahead of FPL Gameweek 38:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.5) – Everton
Ownership: 31.5%
It might be time to sell DCL now. With only 3 goals since Game week 23, the Everton striker has heavily underperformed, and with a fixture against Manchester City in FPL Gameweek 38, I don’t see goals coming.
City have only conceded an xG of 0.89 per game in their last 6 games, I say “only” as it includes the 2 penalties they conceded against Newcastle. Even if Pep is going to rotate with the Champions League final in mind, City’s team will be strong enough to make them clear favorites against Everton.
There are so many better options than DCL this week, Bamford, Antonio and Wood are all players with a much higher chance of hauling this week so I think going with DCL is really not the way to try to maximize your points.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Matchups – A Posse of Little Princes and Player Comparisons
Ollie Watkins (£6.3) – Aston Villa
Ownership: 22.8%
What applies to Calvert-Lewin also applies to Ollie Watkins, at least the fact that there are a lot of more interesting options with higher ceilings this week. Watkins faces a Chelsea side desperate to stay in the Top 4, so it will not be easy for Villa to get a goal here.
Chelsea have only conceded an average of 0.72 xG in their last 6 games and with full focus on getting the win this week, I believe that they will not give Ollie Watkins much space to operate from at all.
However, it’s worth noting that Jack Grealish is back and the presence of Villa’s main man will of course make it easier for Watkins so if I had to keep one of either Watkins or DCL, it would be Watkins.
Thank you for reading this week’s article, I hope you found it interesting and helpful.
Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy poll
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Do vote in this week’s allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by AK. The metrics has been delivering consistently since debuting in GW29 and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same.
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Further reads and viewing from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38
FPL GW38 Matchups – A Posse of Little Princes and Player Comparisons
Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
Check out the latest Netthathaul Matchups show on YouTube
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FPL Architect
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