This FPL GW38 matchups blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com. Check out his previous matchups articles here. Also, check out Netthathaul on YouTube for the matchups and Compass episodes where FPLLens is a co-host with FPLmariner, @FPL_Nima, and @Hibbo_FPL.
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our #FPL decisions.
I have always been struck by how different the world looks after a storm, like showering after a long camping trip. Pieces of what once was are washed away. Everything is bare for all to see. That is how #GW38 feels for me. I will miss the storm, but, for now, I will appreciate what the storm has left behind.
For the final day of the 20/21 season, I have decided to dedicate it to The Little Prince. These picks, and the idea behind them, have given me perspective this season.
“And now here is my secret, a very simple secret: It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince
This maxim has kept me focused on process and has helped bring a #FPLBeach state of mind. I will therefore be writing about 8 players who qualify as a pick from the heart. We may not be able to have them all, so I compare similar assets from the same team. They are all playing at home, and they have all shown passion and motivation to finish the season with a bang.
FPL GW38 player comparisons ~ The Posse of Little Princes
- Mané/Firmino
- Raphinha/Bamford
- Foden/Ferran
- Antonio/Lingard
Check out the video form of the Matchups on GW38 Netthathaul YouTube Episode
Do check out the episode for the GW38 Matchups, Captaincy metrics, Algorithm 11, and much more. Do subscribe and stay tuned for upcoming episodes. Audio formats available on all podcasts platform too!
MANE/FIRMINO
In the last 6 GWs, Mané and Firmino have been posting quite comparable stats. The difference, as highlighted in purple in the comparison chart from @FF_HQ is in the SoT.
Player comparison table from FFHUB
Mané’s poor finishing this season has been Werner-esque with just 3 of 14 shots on target in the last 6. Intriguingly, Firmino seems like the better pick with his accuracy and his 23 FPL points in his last 3 matches. One thing that may be clouding our judgment is Mané’s benching against United. In his last 3 starts, Mané has scored 22 FPL points.
The next 2 images illustrate how Mane has had similar success as Firmino, while being woefully out of form.
The passes in the final third image shows us how Firmino drops out of the box to pull defenders and open space. Mané, on the other hand, looks to penetrate and is more involved in the gameplay in more dangerous areas. To add, Mané’s shooting opportunities have a higher xG. The decision here will likely depend on your roster and which players you need/want to move out. I went for Mané because I wanted to move Bruno out.
“You become responsible for whatever you have tamed.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Little Prince
Further Read: Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
RAPHINHA/BAMFORD
The stats comparison over the last 2 matches shook me when I first saw it. I really wanted to captain Raphinha this GW, but the initial read here suggests Bamford has the edge. This sentiment was also expressed on the @FPLBanger podcast when Sam mentioned that Bamford has 5 double digit hauls this season, while Raphinha has only one.
Raphinha is a perfect Little Prince because watching him play is pure joy. He seems to always want he ball, and he moves from flank to flank.
His heat map in the last 2 matches, however, shows how he has not moved around the field as much. Bamford predictably receives fewer passes than Raphinha, but they are, also predictably, in a more dangerous area.
The shots heat map further indicates Bamford’s high potential. All 4 shots in the last 2 were in the box, 2 of them in the 6-yard box. For Raphinha’s part, I like that he moves centrally, into more dangerous positions, to take his chances.
Unfortunately, Raphinha’s chances are low xG. But this is the appeal of a Little Prince pick, he can turn these low xG shots into things of wonder. Bamford seems the sensible pick here, but Raphinha continues to capture the imagination.
“A rock pile ceases to be a rock pile the moment a single man contemplates it, bearing within him the image of a cathedral.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Little Prince.
Further Read: Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
FODEN/FERRAN
The per game stats over the past 6 are quite comparable.
When looking at more immediate form and opportunity in the last 2 matches, however, we see Ferran’s goal scoring related stats blow up. This is a result of him playing the 9 in recent weeks.
Gabriel Jesus starts at the 9, but his role has been to stretch defenses by moving wide. Ferran starts outside and his role has been to fill the gaps created by Jesus. We see this in the 2 bright areas of the touch heat map. Foden, by contrast, is more involved in the build up and link play, but he also has more of a presence in the box as depicted by the 3 purple patches.
Ferran is still developing after playing on the wing at Valencia, but he seems to be a player that is underestimated by opponents, and this presents opportunity for FPL production.
EVE, while generally solid defensively recently, have had a couple of areas of defensive vulnerability in the last couple of matches. Fortunately for those considering Foden or Ferran to catch a shooting star in 38, those 2 areas of weakness are precisely where the two players receive their passes.
The risk of the roulette is clear, but those able to wait for some information from somewhere, may get a taste of FPL dreams.
“Well, I must endure the presence of a few caterpillars if I wish to become acquainted with the butterflies.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Little Prince.
Further Read: Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
ANTONIO/LINGARD
This is quite the comparison. The way the radar graph is laid out, the chance creation and assist stats are on the left, and the goalscoring stats are on the right. These two are a match made in heaven. Seeing this kind of synergy between a new arrival and a veteran must be incredibly gratifying for Moyes. FPL managers will want the goals of course, so early edge for Antonio.
This relationship is confirmed with the chances created heat map and the xG shots map.
The touch heat map surprised me because I did not expect to see Antonio so wide. When reflecting on Antonio’s movement in the games, he moves wide to create space for himself. He pulls defenders into deep and wide areas then explodes into the pockets left by their movement. That is represented by the green and yellow in the box of in the touch heat map.
The matchup against SOU lines up like a constellation in the stars for our 2 Little Princes.
Thank you, one last time this season, for spending your precious moments with these thoughts. It has been such a privilege to be able to meet you here almost every game week. These articles have served as an outlet for me during times when I could not coach. Literally hundred of hours spent that I would never trade for anything.
It is in this vein that I would like to leave you with the last lesson of the season from Le Petit Prince. A lesson about process. We all invest so much into our silly little game of #FPL, so please remember:
“It is the time you have spent with your rose that makes your rose so important.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Little Prince
One last special thanks to @allaboutfpl. Also, the #NetThatHaul crew @FPLMariner @FPLNima & @Hibbo_FPL. Lastly, the creators of the tools I used all season @FF_HQ and @FFScout.
May 38 be filled with greenz!
Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL GW38 Captaincy poll
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Do vote in this week’s allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by AK. The metrics has been delivering consistently since debuting in GW29 and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same.
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Further reads and viewing from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38
Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
Check out the latest Netthathaul Matchups show on YouTube
Do check out the episode for the GW38 Matchups, Captaincy metrics, Algorithm 11, and much more. Do subscribe and stay tuned for upcoming episodes. Audio formats available on all podcasts platform too!
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