This FPL GW 38 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
The “Double or Nothing” Model is back for Gameweek 38 after a disappointing Gameweek 37, where the 5 candidates assessed in our Model returned only an assist between them.
Moving on from last Gameweek is easy and exciting though, as we head into the Final Gameweek of a season full of ups and downs. Here’s hoping we nail the captaincy shout to close out the season with success. So far, The Model has returned the best result 4 out of 6 times.
FPL GW 38 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”7″]
We are back for GW38 and Mohammed Salah clearly leads our Captaincy Poll with 67% of votes. Salah is followed by teammate Sadio Mane (7%) and Leeds United’s Patrick Bamford (6%). Trent Alexander-Arnold (5%) and Harry Kane (3%) round off the captaincy candidates this week.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 19 | 13 | 6 | 3.16 | 5.26 | 2 |
| Mane | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2.48 | 3.20 | 4 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0.62 | 2.61 | 5 |
| Harry Kane | 15 | 9 | 6 | 3.36 | 1.99 | 1 |
| Patrick Bamford | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2.64 | 1.47 | 3 |
Harry Kane comes out on top this week. Although he has had fewer Shots Inside the Box than Salah who comes second (15 to 19), Kane has had the same amount of Big Chances(6) but has a better xG (3.36 to 3.16).
Patrick Bamford comes in at third place, just about edging ahead of Sadio Mane (4th). Although Bamford has had fewer Shots Inside the Box (11 to 12) and equal number of Big Chances (5 each), the Englishman beats Mane in XG (2.64 to 2.48).
Trent Alexander-Arnold rounds up our candidate’s list but has the Most Chances Created (21) and an xG of 0.62.
Further Reads: FPL GW38 Matchups – A Posse of Little Princes and Player Comparisons
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 80 | 23 | 13.06 | 1 |
| Liverpool (Mane) | 80 | 23 | 13.06 | 1 |
| Liverpool (TAA) | 80 | 23 | 13.06 | 1 |
| Tottenham (Kane) | 54 | 14 | 9.96 | 4 |
| Leeds United (Bamford) | 49 | 14 | 8.99 | 5 |
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. A total of 80 Shots Inside the Box and 23 Big Chances in Total, helps in boosting their xG at 13.06.
Tottenham and Leeds United have very similar stats. Both the teams are tied on Big Chances (14) in the last 6 matches, however Tottenham have managed more Shots Inside the Box (54 to 49) and a better xG (9.96 to 8.99).
Further Read: Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW 38
| (C)andidate | Shots Conceded Inside The Box | Big Chances Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Crystal Palace (vs Salah) | 59 | 10 | 8.48 | 2 |
| Crystal Palace (vs Mane) | 59 | 10 | 8.48 | 2 |
| Crystal Palace (vs TAA) | 59 | 10 | 8.48 | 2 |
| Leicester City (vs Kane) | 36 | 11 | 8.34 | 5 |
| West Brom Albion (vs Bamford) | 74 | 16 | 12.80 | 1 |
West Brom Albion, who are facing Leeds United this week, have the worst defensive stats in the league, in the last 6 matches. They have conceded the most Shots Inside the Box (74), Big Chances (16) and consequently, have the worst xG Conceded (12.60).
Crystal Palace have not been poor at the back in the last 6 games, having conceded 59 Shots Inside the Box, 10 Big Chances and are 9th in the league for xG Conceded (8.48).
The most difficult fixture, however, will be played by Tottenham, who are up against Leicester City. The Foxes have conceded 36 Shots Inside the Box and 11 Big Chances in the last 6 matches. With an xG Conceded of 8.34, this fixture looks to be the toughest for our metric, but not by a huge margin.
Further Read: Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
Projections Rank
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns GW30 (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 75% | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mane | 66% | 6.8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| TAA | 73% | 6.3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Kane | 49% | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Bamford | 70% | 6.8 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Mohammed Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 75%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 8.6, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Leeds United’s Patrick Bamford comes in behind the Egyptian, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 70% and Projected Points at 6.8.
Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in at third behind Kane, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 73% and Projected Points at 6.3.
Alexander-Arnold’s teammate Sadio Mane also comes in at third position, with his Anytime Returns Projections of 66% and Projected Points of 6.8. Meaning although Trent Alexander-Arnold is a safer option, Sadio Mane has more chances of exploding, giving both similar scores for the Average.
Surprisingly, Harry Kane comes in fifth, with an Anytime Returns Projections of 49% and Projected Points of 4.8, indicating how difficult Leicester could make it for the Englishman, who is chasing the Golden Boot, tied with Salah at 22 goals each.
Further Read: Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL GW 38 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Mane | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| TAA | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| Harry Kane | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Bamford | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
As highlighted in the Community Votes, it’s Mohammed Salah who clearly tops the Metric with a CRF of 6, beating teammate Sadio Mane, who has a CRF of 10.
Patrick Bamford and Trent Alexander-Arnold are tied behind the Liverpool attackers at third place, with a CRF of 11 each.
Harry Kane has the worst CRF of the lot at 15, indicating how difficult it will be to win the Golden Boot this season.
Further reads and viewing from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 38
Buy, Hold, Sell Player Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38
FPL GW38 Matchups – A Posse of Little Princes and Player Comparisons
Key players to target in FPL GW38 if you are catching your Mini league rivals or targeting your OR rank
Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts
The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
Check out the latest Netthathaul Matchups show on YouTube
Do check out the episode for the GW38 Matchups, Captaincy metrics, Algorithm 11, and much more. Do subscribe and stay tuned for upcoming episodes. Audio formats available on all podcasts platform too!
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All our blogs for FPL GW38 and the season are done now. Do keep checking allaboutfpl.com for a lot of interesting off-season blogs covering a wide range of FPL topics. We’ll also be covering the official Euro Fantasy and Fan team fantasy events and there will be a lot of blogs on the same. We’ll be having a Twitter spaces chat and posting a lot of tweets tomorrow as we run down to the final deadline of the season. So follow us on Twitter and keep our notification ON.
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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