This FPL GW33 blog is written by FPL Architect. He is an FPL writer now writing weekly threads on Twitter and weekly articles here on allaboutfpl.com. He likes to combine eye tests and stats when making FPL decisions. Do give him a follow on Twitter.
As FPL GW33 is another blank gameweek, this time it’s Manchester City and Spurs that don’t have a fixture, many managers are looking at a reduced number of players in their squads. This means that it could be time to play your Free Hit chip if you still have it, to get a good team for the weekend without removing key assets such as Harry Kane or Heung Min Son. Therefore, I will in this article give my view on how an ideal Free Hit draft could look and what players to consider.
FPL GW33 Free Hit Team
FPL GW33 Goalkeeper:
Emiliano Martinez (£5.4) – Aston Villa
Ownership: 39.9%
Fixture: WBA (H)
Emi Martinez is the sixth-highest scoring player this season, as a goalkeeper. He has outscored premium attackers like Jamie Vardy, Raheem Sterling, and Marcus Rashford, which is the most obvious proof of how good the Argentinian’s season has been. He has managed 14 clean sheets and 24 bonus points, numbers that give him the top spot for points per million this season.
Villa face a West Brom side that despite scoring 8 goals in the last 2 games find themselves in the relegation battle after a tough season, where goalscoring has been a problem. They have averaged 0.9 goals per game this season, numbers much influenced by the last 2 games and I give Aston Villa, lead by Emi Martinez himself, particularly good chances of a clean sheet in this game. And if they do keep one, Martinez is always close to a big haul.
FPL GW33 Defenders to target in your Free Hit Team
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4) – Liverpool
Ownership: 17.2%
Fixture: NEW (H)
Trent Alexander-Arnold is back. Back as a great FPL pick. Even though Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet since GW 30, Trent has scored 19 points since then as a result of one goal and one assist. That’s the offensive threat you want to see from him, and that’s why he’s worth the heavy price tag. Another thing that fascinates me is that Trent has managed to get maximum bonus points 4 games in a row, which is just incredible.
Liverpool goes up against Newcastle at home in GW 33. Newcastle have averaged an xG of only 0.79 goals per game in their last 6 away games, which gives Trent and Liverpool low odds of a clean sheet. Combine that with the lately shown attacking threat from the right-back, and you have a player with great potential to haul in GW 33.
Timothy Castagne (£5.7) – Leicester
Ownership: 4.3%
Fixture: CRY (H)
Leicester may not have kept a clean sheet in the Premier League since GW 28, but they got on the right track against Southampton in the FA Cup semi winning 1-0 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it two clean sheets in a row this weekend considering their opposition. Crystal Palace have averaged an xG of 0.65 in their last 6 games and nothing points at them turning the trend.
With Castagne playing as a wingback for Leicester he also possesses an attacking threat meaning that his potential is quite high in a GW like this. His low ownership also makes him the kind of differential player you will need to climb the rank at this late stage of the season.
Romain Saiss (£5.0) – Wolves
Ownership: 6.4%
Fixture: BUR (H)
Wolves have improved defensively as of lately, keeping 2 clean sheets in a row after just managing 1 in the previous 5 games. They had an xGC of only 0.3 against Sheffield United which is very good, although it must be said that it was partly thanks to the poor attacking play from Sheffield United, something the relegated side have shown all season.
Anyway, you actually have to keep the clean sheet, which Wolves have done deservingly. Romain Saiss got himself 2 bonus points in the last game and it’s clear that he’s exceptionally good in the bonus points system. He has score 55 in the BPS over the last two games, and before that 19 without keeping a clean sheet. Great numbers, and if Burnley fail to score this week you’ll likely see Saiss with some bonus points.
Lewis Dunk (£4.9) – Brighton
Ownership: 8.0%
Fixture: SHU (A)
The last time playing the Free Hit chip was a common strategy, in GW 29, many teams included Lewis Dunk who paid back with a clean sheet. Since then, Brighton have had a lot of tough fixtures but now it’s time to look at Dunk again. The center-back has returned 4 goals, 15 bonus points, and 10 clean sheets this season which must be considered as good playing for a sometimes shaky Brighton.
However, the most appealing reason of why to get Dunk in your Free Hit team this week is the fixture. He faces a toothless Sheffield United side that has averaged an xG of only 0.53 per game over the last 6 games, scoring only 0.33 goals per game during this period. You don’t get a better fixture defensive-wise, and I would therefore advise punting on a Brighton defender.
FPL GW33 Midfielders to target in your Free Hit Team
Mohamed Salah (£12.5) – Liverpool
Ownership: 32.3%
Fixture: NEW (H)
Mo Salah was rested against Leeds in GW 32 and is therefore quite guaranteed to start in GW 33 where he faces Newcastle at home. Newcastle have conceded 8 goals in 4 games since GW 29, and I no doubt expect Liverpool to find their way through the leaky defence of the guests.
In his last six games, Salah has averaged an xGI of 0.52 per game (including the Leeds game where he started on the bench). Great numbers that I expect him to be able to get results from against a Newcastle side unable to find any sort of defensive stability right now.
Bruno Fernandes (£11.6) – Manchester United
Ownership: 57.1%
Fixture: LEE (A)
Bruno has blanked in 3 of the last 4 games but after all he is joint top scoring FPL player this season for a reason. He has been incredibly consistent throughout the entire campaign and with 6 games left he is already on 29 goal involvements, 16 goals and 13 assists.
In the reverse fixture against Leeds, he scored an impressive number of 17 points, by netting twice and making one assist against Bielsa’s team. Even though Leeds managed to win against Manchester City in GW 31 and then draw against Liverpool in GW 32, their record against the top teams has not been good this season. That makes me expect that United will punish them again and if they do, Bruno will likely be involved.
Diogo Jota (£7.0) – Liverpool
Ownership: 17.0%
Fixture: NEW (H)
When Liverpool have a fixture such as Newcastle at home, I don’t mind tripling up. Along with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota is a great option for the weekend. The Portuguese has scored 8 goals this season, 3 of them since returning from injury in GW 27.
Over the last 6 games, Jota has averaged 0.5 big chances per game and 2.33 goal attempts in the box per game. The numbers support the decision of owning Jota in your FPL team. To be fair he really should have scored in GW 32 against Leeds, and if that kind of chances go in against Newcastle, Jota could be in for a big haul. He is not much of a differential but nevertheless a very appealing option for people of Free Hit.
Mason Greenwood (£7.1) – Manchester United
Ownership: 3.0%
Fixture: LEE (A)
As previously mentioned when explaining why Bruno is a good pick for GW 33, the Leeds defense has been previously shaky. The same opportunities naturally apply to Mason Greenwood who has begun to find the net again recently. 3 goals and 1 assist in 3 games for the young Englishman and I, therefore, expect him to have played himself into a position in the starting eleven against Leeds.
In the last 6 games, he has 4 goals from a total xG of 2.59. For some players, this could be analyzed as “overperforming” but that’s not the case with Greenwood in my opinion. He’s just such a natural finisher, something that he has proved since becoming a part of the United first team and the conclusion I choose to draw is that he will not need as good chances as many else in order to score, which of course makes him an even better FPL asset.
FPL GW33 Forwards to target in your Free Hit Team
Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.1) – Leicester
Ownership: 17.0%
Fixture: CRY (H)
Kelechi Iheanacho is in the form of his life as he has scored an incredible 7 goals in his last 5 Premier League matches. FPL managers obviously reacted by bringing the Nigerian in and as a result Iheanacho has seen his price rise of £0.5m since his first goal of the seven.
Over the last 6 games, Iheanacho has averaged an xGI of 0.86 and with a goal involvement percent of 64% you know that when Leicester scores, Iheanacho is likely to be involved. When a player like this faces a Crystal Palace side with only one win in their last 6 games, he is close to a must-own for people playing their Free Hit chip.
Jamie Vardy (£10.1) – Leicester
Ownership: 19.4%
Fixture: CRY (H)
Leicester have averaged an xG of 1.47 over the last 6 games, including the game against the defensively solid Manchester City and they go up against Crystal Palace that have conceded an average xG of 1.76 per game, in their last 6 games. These stats suggest that doubling up on Leicester’s attack is a good idea, and Jamie Vardy is a great option.
Despite only 2 goal involvements in his last 6 games, Vardy has averaged an xGI per game of 0.62 during this period, which definitely points towards him turning the trend and starting to deliver points very soon. Why not begin with a few against a defensively leaky Crystal Palace?
This was everything from my GW33 Free hit draft, I hope you found it interesting and that it helped you decide on a few players for your Freee hit team, here is a link to my Twitter account @FPL_Architect.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33:
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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FPL Architect
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