Welcome back to another captaincy metrics blog, The popular FPL Gameweek 33 captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Son, and Foden. Let’s see who amongst the five players tops the captaincy metrics this week, will it be Haaland or someone else?
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season the metrics has a 22/32 returns record
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Total metrics points: 442 points (26+4+14+40+12+12+4+30+16+16+2+32+14+14+4+26*+6+4*+6+32*+6+26*+10+12+10+12*+16*+4+14+2+16)
Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW33 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW33 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland takes the top spot in the captaincy poll with a whopping 48% of the votes ahead of facing Luton at Home. Mo Salah who came at HT off the bench in the UEL game vs Atalanta on Thursday night takes the 2nd spot in the captaincy poll with 27% of the votes, Palmer who is on a dream run picks up the third spot in the poll this week ahead of facing Everton. Son and Foden* complete the top five of the captaincy metrics.
Foden was subbed off amidst an injury concern and at the time of writing there has been no further updates on him. Man City face Real Madrid in the crucial UEL QFs 2nd leg next midweek and he might be rested all together vs Luton. We’ll try to update the blog based on further updates.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 33 Captain picks
Mo Salah is on a league of his own with an xG of 6.31 in the last six games, Salah has also had 25 shots inside the box and 10 big chances.
Palmer is 2nd ahead of Haaland registering an xG of 4.02 in the last six games along with 4 big chances, and 16 goal attempts in the box. He has also created 20 chances which is the highest amongst the five players
Haaland who has been slightly silent in the last few games is third with an xG of 3.93, he is joint top for big chances(10) amongst the five players, and he has also registered 17 shots inside the box in the last six games which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players.
Foden is 4th with five big chances in the last six games and an xG of 3.25, he has also created 13 chances in the last six games.
Son is last with an xG of 2.20 in the last six games. The Spurs attacker has created 12 chances and has registered 16 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool’s dominance in the last six games can be seen in this table, the Reds have registered a healthy xG of 16.42 during the period. They have had 103 shots inside the box and 22 big chances which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Man City are only 2nd in the table with an xG of 12.91. The Blues are 2nd for shots inside the box(74) in the last six games & big chances amongst the five teams(21).
Chelsea are 4th in the table with an xG of 12.45. The Gunners have also registered 67 shots inside the box and 18 big chances in the last six games.
Spurs are 5th with an xG of 11.38 and have had 19 big chances in the last six games along with 63 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW33
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City are top with a 95% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 69% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week. Man City have great odds this week but with a crucial midweek UCL game to follow how many mins popular Man City assets will play vs Luton is the biggest question for managers ahead of GW33!
Liverpool are 3rd and have a 92% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 58% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Chelsea are 4th in the table and have a 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Spurs are 5th in the table and have 80% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week.
Further Read: Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 77% and an 8.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 33.
Salah takes the 2nd spot with an anytime returns projection of 72% and a 8.2 points projection vs Crystal Palace(H)
Son takes the 3rd spot with an anytime returns projection of 60% and a points projection of 6.4
Palmer is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 59% and a points projection of 5.9
Foden is 5th with an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.4, the injury concern around Foden has reduced his projected points due a lower xMins(44 mins)
Further Read: Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 33 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah and Haaland takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of only 7. Foden takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 12. Palmer takes the 4th spot with a CRF of 14 and Son is last with a CRF of 18.
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33
Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW33 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW33 Tips and Preview- All Dilemmas Answered
FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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