In this article let’s try to solve our transfer dilemmas ahead of FPL gameweek 12 with the help of some scatter plots and other stats. All stats were taken from the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs. All our FPL GW12 blogs are completely free to access and cover all the essential topics.
FPL Gameweek 12 Preview
TEAM PERFORMANCE
Before diving into player data, let’s see how the teams fared so far. First up, let’s see how they did attacking-wise and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Expected Goals (xG) per game plotted on the x-axis and goals scored per game on the y-axis.
- Liverpool are way ahead of the pack for attacking numbers.
- One thing that sticks out is Chelsea massively overperforming their xG. Much of this has to do with the Norwich game when they scored 7 goals from an xG of 2.96. Nothing much to worry there given the expected numbers are still strong.
- West Ham’s great start to the season is also backed by good expected attacking numbers.
- We could expect Tottenham’s attacking numbers to go up under Conte who is one of the best managers in the world in my opinion. Contrary to popular opinion, his teams are not just defensively solid. Inter scored the 2nd most goals in Serie A in 2020/21 (89) and 2019/20 (81) with an xG of 74.8 (2nd best) and 72.3 (3rd best) respectively.
- I think Eddie Howe will improve Newcastle’s attack. If we exclude his first season and the relegated season in the Premier League with Bournemouth, his teams scored the 7th, 9th and 7th most goals in 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons respectively. Howe on the style of play in his first interview at Newcastle: “We love to attack, be on the front foot and play with speed. I want to see really fast dynamic movements, a team playing as a team, not as individuals and playing on the front foot, trying to win the game.”
- Though Rangers impressed under Gerrard, we can’t say how the numbers from the top guns in the Scottish Premiership would translate to a mid table side in the Premier League
Now, let’s look at the defensive data of teams with the help of a scatter chart with Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) per game plotted on the x-axis and goals conceded per game on the y-axis.
- Manchester City’s defence is the best in terms of xGC.
- Chelsea conceded the least goals (4) and is level with City for most clean sheets (7). What is also striking is Chelsea’s massive overperformance, conceding just 4 goals from an xGC of 11.79. Were they just lucky with opponents fluffing their chances? Or were they defending the box good with blocks and pressures, making it difficult for the opponents to take better shots? Or was it just Mendy being too good?
Looking at the shots conceded, it seems like a combination of all three of these. Will they start conceding more goals now? Possibly. That said, it’s worth mentioning that no team has kept more clean sheets than Chelsea after Tuchel took charge. Also, it’s not that their expected numbers are terrible. They are still the 3rd best in the league for xGC.
- Crystal Palace’s defence has impressed and are 2nd in the league for xGC.
- Inter’s defensive numbers under Conte suggest that Tottenham could tighten up. Inter conceded the fewest goals in Serie A in 2020/21 (35) and 2019/20 (36) with the second best xGC in both seasons with 38.6 and 40.6 respectively.
- I feel that this graph doesn’t represent Arsenal well as their numbers were terrible in the first three gameweeks when they had many first eleven players missing. If we look at gameweek 4-11 data, Arsenal conceded just 4 goals (2nd best in the league) from an xGC of 8 (3rd best).
- I am not sure if Howe will significantly improve Newcastle’s defence. His Bournemouth sides conceded 16th, 17th and 18th most goals in 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2019/19 respectively.
Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
MIDFIELDERS
Let’s see how the midfielders did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) plus Expected Assists (xA) per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included midfielders who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.
What to make of overperforming and underperforming though? Should we buy a player X who starts firing, but doesn’t have good expected numbers? Say there is another player Y who has good expected numbers and has a great fixture run ahead but hasn’t gotten any attacking returns of late. Should we still get him? A lot has to do with the finishing ability of the player in question.
So, let’s also look at a scatter plot for the current Premier League players with data taken from FBref for the top five leagues, Champions League and Europa League from 2017/18 onwards, plotting npxG on the x-axis and non-penalty goals on the y-axis. Only included players with a minimum npxG of 20 over that period as finishing ability is something to be evaluated over a big sample size.
Son is the best finisher in the league, scoring 141% of what was expected of him. Benteke has been pretty poor, scoring just 61% of what expected numbers suggested. Coming back to our questions about players X and Y, for the sake of simplicity, let’s consider npxG over/underperformance and xA over/underperformance separately. The former is pretty straightforward as it largely depends on the player’s finishing ability. If player X or Y is someone like Son, it’s probably an easy buy for me.
The lesser the finisher, the more skeptical I would be and someone like Benteke would take a lot of convincing for me to invest in. As for xA over/underperformance, it largely depends on the finishing ability of the players around. For instance, Mount was the player who underperformed the most on xA last season thanks to Werner missing his shooting boots.
Coming back to our midfielders’ graph, what are the takeaways?
- Salah (£13.0) seems to be in the form of his life. He is massively overperforming. However, even if there is a reversion to the mean, his expected numbers are still the best in the league. I think there should be no betting against Salah for captaincy in this kind of form.
- With Firmino sidelined with injury and Salah and Mane leaving for the Africa Cup of Nations in early January, Jota (£7.5) should be the priority transfer this gameweek in my opinion. Let’s look at his per 90 expected numbers this season and last season in the Premier League and Champions League when compared to Salah’s from FBref
Jota is a premium asset masquerading as a £7.5 option whenever he has an opportunity to play regular minutes and that too for the best-attacking side in the league. If you are still skeptical given his early-season misses, you could see from the graph above that he is a decent finisher.
- Foden (£8.3) is another exciting option to be considered given his impressive expected numbers and good upcoming fixtures (EVE WHU avl wat WOL LEE new). Gundogan (£7.2) could potentially be a tasty differential. His expected numbers are even more impressive than Foden. He has been attacking the box with his intelligent movement. There is a massive underperformance, but I wouldn’t worry too much because the underperformance has been mostly on the assist front (0 assists from an xA of 1.74 as opposed to 2 goals from an xG of 2.66) and he is a good finisher as you can see from the graph above. Could be on penalties as well with Mahrez out of the first team picture. That said, the Pep roulette tilts it in favour of Foden, who started all of the last 6 league games, in my opinion.
- Son (£10.3) has already been putting up good performances in a poor side under Nuno. I think that would only improve under Conte and the fixtures (LEE bur BRE NOR) are there for the taking. Son or Kane? We will discuss later in the forwards section.
- Gallagher (£5.9) has been thriving in the box-to-box role in a good looking Palace side and has a good fixture run (bur AVL lee mun EVE SOU wat) ahead. My only apprehension is that McArthur’s potentially serious hamstring injury could mean Milivojevic starts more games now. That would take away the set-pieces and some attacking freedom from Gallagher. He is probably still the best budget midfielder to get.
- Bowen’s (£6.4) numbers look really impressive. On some set-pieces as well. He could be a prime target when West Ham’s fixtures improve in gameweek 16.
- Though Cornet (£6.0) has had 2 double digit hauls in 5 starts, there is some massive overperformance there, scoring 4 goals from an xG of 0.97. With CRY and TOT up next, I think he is a wait-and-see.
- Smith-Rowe (£5.8) has massively overperformed, scoring 4 goals from an xG of 1.56. Though he is unlikely to keep scoring at this rate, I think he will tick along nicely given his knack of finding space in and around the box using his intelligent movement.
- Though Mbeumo (£5.6) has let us down lately, I think he is an easy hold this gameweek with Newcastle away.
- Trossard (£6.5) doesn’t look good on the graph, but he was really impressive in the last two games, playing as a false 9. I am not sure though if Maupay will keep getting benched. One to monitor.
- With Lukaku nearing return, Havertz (£8.1) is a sell, given the better options around that price in Jota and Foden.
- Though Raphinha (£6.6) looks perfectly fine on the graph with a good amount of attacking returns with expected numbers matching it, that is not the case if you dig deeper. He has scored 5 goals (some incredible and some fluky ones) from an xG of just 1.89. No player has overperformed more on xG and it is unsustainable by all means. Also, he has zero assists from an xA of 2.38 (playing alongside poor finishers?). No player has underperformed more on xA. That is the curious case of Raphinha. He is highly unlikely to keep up this level of attacking returns. The fixtures (tot bha CRY BRE che mci ARS liv) don’t look good either. I would sell if that enables you to get Jota, Foden, Son or Kane. On a positive note, he is almost shooting on sight (4th among all players for shots) and could hopefully get some returns in the next four games after which you could sell for Bowen.
Further Read: Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard
FORWARDS
Now, let’s see how the forwards did so far and how the actual performance differs from the expected performance with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included forwards who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.
What are the takeaways?
- Antonio’s (£8.2) numbers are insane and West Ham in the current form can score against any team. I would hold despite some tricky fixtures in the next 4 gameweeks (wol mci BHA CHE)
- Kane’s (£12.2) numbers have been poor so far, but he is now playing under a world class manager who has always got the best out of his centre forwards. And the fixtures are there to capitalise on. Conte on Kane during Euro 2020: “Many praise Kane for his ability to go get the ball and play with the team. He’s good at that, but it’s in the box where he’s clinical and as a coach, I would always keep him in there because he’s devastating.” This should be music to our ears. Kane looking sharp for the national team (lowly opponents though) is a good sign as well.
So, Kane or Son?
There are pros and cons to both. Son has displayed some form this season and is significantly cheaper. Meanwhile, if you were to pick Kane, it is mostly in the hope that Conte will change his fortunes. However, we know how good a player he can be. And he is on penalties. Also, if the move backfires, it is an easy switch to Lukaku or Ronaldo who would be back in the conversation soon. In short, it’s splitting hairs and I think you could go for the one that suits your team structure. If you have routes to both, I prefer Son a tad more.
- Wilson (£7.3) has been posting decent numbers in a poor Newcastle side and is on penalties. With Howe at the helm, he is an enticing option with good fixtures in the next four gameweeks (BRE ars NOR BUR).
- Toney (£6.7) is an easy hold this gameweek with Newcastle away. Also, it’s not that the budget forward bracket is full of options. Minutes could be a worry with Armstrong (£5.9) during the busy festive period now that Broja (£5.0) is back in training. Hwang (£5.8) has been overperforming a lot (4 goals from 7 shots with a combined xg of 2.42) and Wolves attacking numbers have declined of late. Only four teams have a worse xG in the last six gameweeks. Rotation makes it difficult to consider Edouard (£6.5) or Benteke (6.3) despite Palace’s good fixtures. King’s (£5.6) numbers look good but the fixtures (MUN lei CHE MCI) aren’t encouraging.
- Vardy’s (£10.7) fixtures (CHE WAT sou avl NEW) look good after this gameweek. So, it is not a bad idea to hold despite the disappointments of late. That said, I would sell if that enables you to buy Jota, Foden, Son or Kane.
Further Read: FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
DEFENDERS
We have already seen team defensive data in the beginning. Now, let’s look at the attacking potential of defenders with the help of a scatter plot with npxG+xA per 90 plotted on the x-axis and non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 on the y-axis. Only included defenders who have played a minimum of 400 minutes.
What are the takeaways?
- At the risk of stating the obvious, Trent (£7.7), James (£5.9) and Cancelo (£6.5) are the defenders to own at the moment. Though James has been massively overperforming and is highly unlikely to keep up this level of attacking returns, his expected numbers are still great. I would sell the likes of Dias, Rudiger and Azpilicueta to get any of these three. Meanwhile, I don’t think Chilwell (£6.0) to James is a good use of a transfer. Though James’ numbers are far ahead of Chilwell this season, it is worth noting that Chilwell has better expected numbers if you extend the sample size to since Tuchel took charge. Also, Chilwell is far less likely to be subbed on for a one pointer on the occasion of a benching. I would look to double up on them rather than the sideways switch.
- Reguilon (£5.0) and Emerson (£4.9) could be great differentials, given the onus of attack on wing-backs in Conte’s system. The stats of Inter wing-backs in 2020/21 are very encouraging.
- Mitchell (£4.5) could be a good option given Palace’s defensive form and good fixture run. The attacking threat is negligible though. Guehi (£4.5) could be an alternative with a greater potential for bonus points.
- Lamptey (£4.4) has impressed in the limited minutes so far, but I’m skeptical considering his recurrent hamstring injuries. I think his minutes will be managed during the busy festive period.
Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations
GOALKEEPERS
- Sanchez (£4.6) : keep or sell?
As we saw from the team defensive data in the beginning, Brighton have the 6th best xGC of all teams this season. Also, they were 3rd best for xGC last season. The defence has been reliable for a long time and he is suspended for just a single game. If you have a playing bench keeper like Steele or Foster, a transfer could be better spent elsewhere. If you don’t have one, I think this is an opportunity to upgrade that position. As we know, Sanchez has a low ceiling and hardly gets more than 6 points. He does not get to make a lot of saves given Brighton’s style of play. Dunk and Cucurella have better baseline BPS (Bonus Points System), meaning Sanchez is less likely to get bonus points when they keep a clean sheet.
- Who are the alternatives?
It is between Ramsdale (£4.8) and Guaita (£4.6) in my opinion. As we discussed in the beginning, both teams are good for clean sheets. Both players are also the best for baseline BPS among defensive options in their respective teams. Ramsdale has made 2.96 saves per 90 as opposed to Guaita’s 2.68 and Sanchez’ 2.17. Now, let’s look at some more stats from FBref.
(PSxG/SoT — Post-Shot Expected Goals per Shot on Target: Higher numbers indicate that shots on target faced are more difficult to stop and more likely to score
PSxG+/- — Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed : Positive numbers suggest better luck or an average ability to stop shots)
These numbers suggest that Ramsdale has been facing more savable shots and has also been the better shot stopper this season when compared to Guaita and Sanchez. So, Ramsdale would be my pick if you wish to replace Sanchez.
Thanks for reading. Good luck for FPL gameweek 12. May the arrows be green.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team Reveal | Best Wildcard Draft
Popular FPL Player Comparisons Ahead of FPL GW12 ~ Raphinha vs Bowen vs Trossard
FPL GW12 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW11
FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Analysis | Best Transfer Combinations
Everything Begins With the Fundamentals | Story on Son-Heung Min
FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test
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