Welcome to FPL GW12 Transfer Trends! This is a weekly series where we take a bit of time to analyze some of the major transfer trends on FPL prior to the deadline.
GW11 saw a couple of hefty double digit hauls, as well as a few surprising fixture results. A couple of differential picks ended up paying off and rewarding faithful managers.
This week, we can see the transfer trends show people buying players from Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, and West Ham. The top 5 transfers OUT come from Brighton, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Leicester, and Everton.
Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW12 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 10/11 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW11. Stay tuned for the GW10 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs.
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”21″]
The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 12 Deadline – Friday 20th November 2021 at 11:00 AM BST
We will take a look at the players that managers are rushing to get in their teams, as well as the players managers are booting out. Then, we will dive into three main transfer combinations that could be decent moves to make ahead of the upcoming gameweek.
RECAP GW11 TRANSFER TRENDS
Raya (0 points) to Ramsdale (7 points) ✅
Sarr (2 points) to Smith Rowe (8 points) ✅
Azpilicueta (0 points) to James (7 points) ✅
All 3 picks worked out! Some great picks. Onto GW12!
Top Transfers In and Out Ahead of FPL GW12
After his red card against Newcastle, Brighton goalkeeper Sanchez faces a 1 match ban, as well as 173k managers transferring him out. Chelsea defender Alonso’s ankle injury sees 137k managers transfer him out, and 130k managers take Ings out of their teams following news of his muscle injury.
Vardy’s third blank in a row sees 109k managers swap him out, and, similarly, Everton winger Gray’s lackluster performances have prompted 104k managers to transfer him out.
On the contrary, Palace midfielder Gallagher has impressed 353k managers with his second double digit haul in a row. Reece James sees 265k managers bring him in after his return against Burnley.
Cancelo’s outstanding 14 point haul in the Manchester derby sees another 227k managers want in on the City defender, and Smith Rowe’s third consecutive return in 3 games shows impressive form that another 190k managers are eager to get involved with.
And, finally, Antonio’s goal for Jamaica during the international break has 120k managers transfer him into their teams.
The 3 transfer combinations we will be focusing on are: Ings to Wilson, Gray to Gallagher, and Alonso to Cancelo.
Top Three FPL GW12 Transfer Trends Combinations
FPL GW12 Transfer Combination 1: Danny Ings (£7.7) to Callum Wilson (£7.3)
Ings‘ muscle injury with an unknown return date has already prompted 21.3% of managers to make the switch to Newcastle striker Callum Wilson. While the temptation could be upgrading to premium pick Kane to pounce on the favourable fun of fixtures Spurs have, Wilson could be a decent differential pick.
Wilson’s injury stint saw him sidelined for 4 gameweeks. However, in the 7 games which he did play, he scored in 4 of them! He averages 1.83 shots in the box per 90 and 2.28 shots per 90. Out of the 15 total shots he’s taken, 12 of them were in the box. 80% of his shots were taken in the box!
He is the nailed pick on penalties for Newcastle, and he is very talismanic, with an expected goal involvement of 66%. He is only owned by 2.3% of teams in FPL – if you are looking to chase in rank, he could be a decent pick given the decent short-term fixtures for Newcastle.
The introduction of Eddie Howe should potentially see Newcastle play a 4-2-3-1, with Wilson as the lone striker at the top. Could we see a new manager bounce for Newcastle? We will have to see…
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Who do Newcastle face in GW12?
Newcastle play Brentford at home in GW12. Despite Brentford’s defensive stability evident in the start of the season, the absence of Raya in goal has affected their stats:
Brentford Defense:
GW1-9 (with Raya)
Shots conceded (per 90): 11.11 (3rd best)
Shots conceded in the box (per 90): 6.11 (2nd best)
Big Chances Conceded (per 90): 1.22 (2nd best)
Average Goals Conceded: 1 (4th best)
GW10-11 (without Raya)
Shots conceded (per 90): 12 (8th best)
Shots conceded in the box (per 90): 6.5 (6th best)
Big Chances Conceded (per 90): 3 (worst)
Average Goals Conceded: 2.5 (worst)
While it is important to consider sample sizes (9 games vs 2); however, the contrast is striking. Additionally, the sheer drop in stability at the back despite only having played 2 games without Raya is worth pointing out.
Having lost 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5, Newcastle will want to capitalize on their good fixtures to get themselves out of the relegation zone.
Further Read: FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL GW12 Transfer Combination 2: Demarai Gray (£5.7) to Conor Gallagher (£5.8)
Everton’s poor streak of performance in the last 5 fixtures, consisting of 3 losses and 2 draws, makes it no surprise that managers are looking to sell Demarai Gray, who, in the last 5, has only returned one assist.
19.4% of managers have made the transfer to Crystal Palace’s midfield youngster Conor Gallagher, who has impressed in Palace’s 2-0 wins against Manchester City away and Wolves at home.
He got a 13 point haul against City, scoring one goal and getting an assist. He also got an 11 point haul against Wolves from scoring one goal. Statistically, he has taken a total of 23 shots, 15 of which were taken in the box, and 10 of them were on target.
He has had 7 big chances, and he has also created 3 big chances. He is on set pieces, boosting his expected Assists to 2.43. A decent budget midfielder pick from a Palace side who seemed to have begun finding their grip under new manager Patrick Vieira.
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Who do Crystal Palace face in GW12?
Palace play Burnley away in GW12. Defensively, Burnley have conceded the most shots among all teams (180), the most shots in the box (125), 26 big chances (3rd worst). Additionally, 40% of Burnley’s chances were conceded on their left flank, which is the right flank of Palace that Gallagher plays on. Gallagher is a great pick against the leaky Burnley defense.
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Further Read: FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW12 Transfer Combination 3: Marcos Alonso (£5.6) to Joao Cancelo (£6.5)
Alonso’s ankle injury with an unknown return date makes him an easy sell, with 14.9% of managers opting for Cancelo in the place of the injured Spaniard.
And for good reason, after Cancelo’s stellar 14 point haul in the Manchester derby against Manchester United, scoring 2 assists and a clean sheet. FPL’s highest scoring defender by points is a hot prospect ahead of the GW12 deadline.
He leads among all defenders for most shots taken (26), 8 of them on target. He is joint first for most touches in the box (28) and is 4th best for entries into the box (69).
With Mendy still out, Cancelo is still the left back of choice for Pep Guardiola, so we can be somewhat confident (to a certain degree) that he is nailed for the most part.
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Who do Man City face in GW12?
Man City play Everton at home in GW12. Everton concede 40% of their chances from the right flank, which is the left flank of City where Cancelo plays. Having only kept 3 clean sheets, Everton have also conceded a total of 140 shots and 22 big chances.
Holding onto Cancelo beyond the Everton fixture would fare well for owners too, as City have a great run of fixtures until GW20. Great opportunities for Cancelo to return.
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That has been 3 potential transfer combinations that FPL managers could consider prior to the Gameweek 12 deadline. Hope this blog provided a bit of insight on viable FPL moves you could take!
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12:
Everything Begins With the Fundamentals | Story on Son-Heung Min
FPL GW 12 Player Watch & Analysis | Callum Wilson
FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL Gameweek 12
FPL Planned Transfers based on Fixtures Between FPL GW12 to GW17
FPL GW11 Saturday Fixtures Review Based on Stats and Eye Test
FPL GW11 Sunday Fixtures Review Based On Stats And Eye Test
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 12 blogs. All of the blogs are completely free to access and covers everything right from game week preview to captaincy!
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Nick Khor (FPL Nitro)
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