Another Gameweek, another successful pick for our captaincy model. And it’s 5 times out of 5 Gameweeks that the player we have picked has returned something. Last week the metric predicted Salah as the best captaincy candidate and he returned once again in GW5 with a double-digit haul. Captaincy is a big issue for us FPL Managers this week, and our Model for FPL GW6 is up and ready to choose the best out of the top five FPL Gameweek 6 Captain Picks. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 6 blogs.
FPL GW6 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”15″]
Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo (43.85%) leads our polls this week, as Mohammed Salah (31.93%) comes a close second.
West Ham United’s Michail Antonio comes in third with 16.19% of your votes. Salah’s teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in behind Lukaku with 2.51% of your votes, as Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy (1.51%) rounds up our top 5 picks of Gameweek 5.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
Cristiano Ronaldo comes out on top for Gameweek 5. Although Ronaldo lags behind both Salah and Antonio in Shots Inside the Box (12), his xG of 3.24 leads the table, meaning the Portugal International is getting better quality chances than both Salah and Antonio. Ronaldo is also level with Michail Antonio on Total Big Chances (5).
Michail Antonio comes in behind Ronaldo, as he just edges Mohammed Salah on xG (3.09 to 3.04 for Salah), which is marginal at best. Antonio also has 15 Shots Inside the Box and 5 Big Chances in total, making him one of the key players for Fantasy Premier League this season.
Mohammed Salah comes in third, which is surprising as he has always been at least top two when it comes to underlying numbers. He still has strong underlying numbers with most Shots inside the Box (19) and Big Chances (6), although he just loses out on xG marginally, as stated above.
With an xG of 2.10, Jamie Vardy comes in behind Salah. The Leicester forward has had 10 Shots Inside the Box and 3 Big Chances so far this season.
Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in behind Vardy at the final place, with just 3 Shots Inside the Box, 0 Big Chances and an xG of 0.38. However, it’s important to note that the full-back has created the most chances (20) of our picks, and has the most assist threat of all the players being analysed here.
Further Read: When To Play Your First FPL Wildcard? GW7/8 Or GW12 | Fixture Guide
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 5 games. An impressive total of 90 Shots Inside the Box and 20 Big Chances, helps in boosting their xG to 13.45, by far the best as compared to the teams in focus in this week’s analysis.
West Ham United come in third behind Liverpool (since we have two Liverpool players) with 49 Shots Inside the Box and 13 Big Chances in Total resulting in an xG of 8.98.
Manchester United come in fourth with 54 Shots Inside the Box, 15 Big Chances in Total and an xG of 8.01.
Leicester City finish last when it comes to underlying numbers. Having managed just 30 Shots Inside the Box and 5 Big Chances, their numbers paint the whole story of their start to the new season. An xG of just 4.93, has them languishing at 18th in the table.
Further Read: Making a For And Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW6
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Aston Villa, who are facing Manchester United this week, have the weakest odds. Clean sheet odds of just 13% pretty much tells you that the bookies really fancy Manchester United to get at least one goal in this match. However, they have been given only a 37% chance when it comes to conceding more than 2.5 goals, as the bookies expect them to not bleed too much from their wounds.
Brentford come in behind Villa, with just a 15% chance of keeping a CS. They are also not expected to keep Liverpool out, with the bookies giving them a significant 48% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals this week.
Burnley have also been given low chances of returning a clean sheet. Being given only a 18% chance of keeping a CS, Burnley aren’t expected to keep Leicester City out. Confidence in their defence does not seem to be too high, having been given a 23% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals.
Leeds United, much to my surprise, have been given a 22% chance of keeping a Clean sheet. Even though the underlying numbers do not look good, bookies are not confident enough on this being a game where West Ham will score many as Leeds United have also been given a 14% chance of conceding more than 2.5 goals.
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 6 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
The popular pick of the week, Cristiano Ronaldo has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 69%, while his Projected Points is only the second highest at 6.6. Even though he seems to be the safest option for captaincy this week, the Explosion factor seems to be low according to Hub’s Projections.
Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah has an Anytime Returns Projections at 65% while his Projected Points at 6.8, is slightly higher than Ronaldo’s.
Jamie Vardy with an Anytime Returns Projections at 68% and Projected Points at 6.1, as all the 3 options mentioned above stand shoulder-to-shoulder at the top here.
Michail Antonio comes in fourth behind the leaders, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 51% and Projected Points at 5.0.
Lastly, Alexander Arnold stands last, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 65% and Projected Points at a mere 4.1.
Further Read: FPL GW6 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 5 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Again, it’s Mohammed Salah who clearly tops the Metric with a CRF of 6, as Liverpool’s underlying numbers coupled with the uncertainty about Brentford keeping them out boosts his Captaincy appeal in our model.
Cristiano Ronaldo comes in behind Salah with a CRF of 9, making a strong case for captaincy against Salah this week, as highlighted in the community votes this week.
Trent Alexander-Arnold finishes in the podium places with a CRF of 12, as his lack of goal threat really makes him suffer in our model usually.
Lastly, Jamie Vardy and Michail Antonio, both end up with a CRF of 14, which is a bit of a surprise as the odds and Points projections do not favour Antonio’s West Ham United as much against Leeds United this week.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 6:
Top 5 Mid Priced Midfielders for FPL GW6 | Midfielders Analysis
FPL GW6 Value Picks to Consider in Your Teams
FPL Gameweek 6: Three Fixtures to target for FPL Points
Making a For And Against Case For Three Premiums FPL Assets | Threemiums
When To Play Your First FPL Wildcard? GW7/8 Or GW12 | Fixture Guide
FPL GW6 Analysis – Players To Buy, Hold Or Sell Ahead Of Deadline
FPL GW6 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Differential Captain For GW6: TAA | Brentford Defensive Analysis
FPL GW6 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW5
FPL GW5 Fixture wise Stats and Eye Test-Based Review
Popular Player Comparisons Ahead Of FPL GW6
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 6?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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