The international break is finally coming to an end and the focus is back on FPL with a lot of buzz surrounding the arrival of a certain player from Juventus. Managers are smashing the wildcard button to get Ronaldo into their FPL teams and this means there is a lot of potential to fill teams with a few differential picks for FPL GW4 and beyond. In this blog, we take a look at some of the differential picks to consider in your FPL Teams
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PS: Ownership mentioned in the images are at the time of writing.
FPL GW4 Differential Picks(<=10% TSB):
Harry Kane(£12.3) vs Crystal Palace(A), TSB: 8.0%
Who would have thought the player with most goals(23), most FPL assists(14)– Harry Kane last season would be sitting at less than 10% TSB in FPL GW4? Thanks to the failed transfer with Manchester City and him not starting the first game, he is still owned by just 8.2% managers ahead of FPL GW4. He had his first start in GW3 against Watford but had just 1 shot with an xG of 0.19 and 2 key passes from 90 minutes which is below par in Kane’s terms. He has shown glimpses of what he can do with a spectacular goal against Poland during the International break which should bring more confidence. With the onus shifting on Ronaldo and Lukaku, Kane could be a cheeky punt for FPL GW4 if you are brave enough.
Fun Fact- Harry Kane scored 2 goals, 2 assists to get 19 points the last time he faced Crystal Palace.
Stat Attack:
- Kane has 5 goals, 5 assists in his last 10 games vs Crystal Palace which looks even better with 4 goals, 2 assists from the last 3 games vs Palace.
- Crystal Palace are winless from 4 games(3 league and 1 cup) this season and Tottenham have only tasted victories this season(3 wins from 3 games).
- Palace have conceded 4 shots from set pieces(Joint 2nd highest) which should interest Kane.
Further Read: A Guide To FPL Team Structure | Wildcard FPL Gameweek 4
Adama Traore(£6.0) vs Watford(A), TSB: 2.7%
Adama Traore has been really passing the eye test over the first three games but has been unlucky to have not scored any goals so far this season. This is also the case for the rest of the Wolves team who have failed to score in all three games having narrowly lost 1-0 in all three games so far this season against tougher opposition.
Traore has registered 12 shots on goal(3rd highest) with an xG of 1.81. He is not just getting chances but also creating chances for his teammates making 9 key passes(Joint highest amongst midfielders). He has also had more shots on goal, xG, xA than Jimenez and Trincao the other two Wolves attackers which further proves he’s the best Wolves attacker. He’s up against Watford in GW4 who have conceded 43% of chances from their right side(Second worst for chances from Right), the position where Adama plays which is an interesting matchup.
Adama Traore shotmap and heatmap
Wolves do not face any of the Big Six Clubs till GW14, with Watford, Brentford, Southampton, Newcastle, as their next 4 fixtures. This is the period where they’ll be expected to do well and Adama Traore will play a key role. With just 3% Traore will help you catch up in rankings when he’s hauling.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target ~ Wolves
Nelson Semedo(£4.9) vs Watford(A), TSB: 1.9%
Wolves defence have put up great performances so far this season against tougher oppositions. They have conceded just three goals with an xGC of 3.8 which is highly respectable considering the opposition. Some of Wolves defensive numbers are listed below.
Wolves fixtures now turn for good and are now having a fixture run until GW14 without a game against the top 6 opposition. In addition to this Semedo has played a decent attacking role as well and has shown signs of giving us managers attacking returns as well. He has so far made 10 passes into the final third, seven passes into the penalty area and made six touches in the opposition penalty box. Now with easier opponents, Semedo could further advance higher up the pitch and could offer both attacking and defensive returns for us managers and at just 4.9 Mil he offers immense value.
Further Read: The Must Have FPL Players On Your GW4 Wildcard Team
Ferran Torres(£7.1) vs Leicester(A), TSB: 10.5%
Manchester City have failed to sign a striker in the transfer window after pursuing big targets like Kane, Ronaldo, Halland and looked like they were to play a season without a striker. But Pep had other ideas and started Ferran Torres as a striker in all the 3 league games so far playing 240 minutes so far. Torres did strike gold in GW3 vs Arsenal getting 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 bonus points to fetch 18 points. He didn’t stop there. Torres got a goal against Georgia and Kosovo during the break. To put it in simple terms, he is in the form of his life fetching 5 goals, 1 assist in the last 12 days.
A City midfielder playing as an out of position forward at just 7.1M with just 11% ownership is too good to ignore despite rotation risks.
Torres in numbers:
- xG of 1.62 against Arsenal- Highest for any player in a single game this season.
- 5.53 FPL points per start
- Joint highest for big chances(3) among midfielders this season.
Further Read: FPL GW4 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Eric Dier vs Crystal Palace(A), TSB: 7.6%
Spurs are the only team to have kept three consecutive cleansheets so far this season and Dier has played a key role at the heart of the defence. This run is expected to continue as new boss Nuno is known to have a strong defence-first strategy. Spurs first game after the break is against a Crystal Palace team managed by Viera who has been very cautious and has himself put a defence first strategy. Against Chelsea in GW1, Palace showed hardly any signs of attacking threat and had an xG of just 0.2 which shows how cautious they were not to concede a lot of goals. They’ll be up against a highly motivated Spurs side who have Kane as well back.
This essential calls for another defensive setup which means a definite CS for Spurs. The fixture run also shows Spurs and Dier have the chance to keep continuing to add CS to their tally. At 4.6 Million Dier could offer decent returns, although he sounds boring as an FPL pick sometimes we need payers like these to keep our points tally ticking.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Analysis- Players To Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead Of FPL GW4
Kai Havertz(£8.3) vs Aston Villa, TSB:6.0%
Chelsea’s golden boy makes an appearance in our differentials blog for the first time this season. A lot of things have changed from last season now with a certain Romelu Lukaku playing upfront. This has enabled Kai Havertz to further thrive and his killer goal-scoring instinct was on display against Liverpool where he scored a wonderful goal to give an early lead for Chelsea.
He has so far had registered an NPxG of 1.06 which is quite a good number having played just 142 minutes of football in the opening three games. The villa defence will be without Martinez and the towering CB’s will be focused on keeping Lukaku in control which allows plenty of space for Havertz to utilize, something that the young German attacker is famously known for. Although a very risky move on paper this has the potential to pay off handsomely.
Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard – Best Combinations, Strategy Tips, And Team Reveal
Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW4(<1% TSB):
Danny Welbeck(£6.0) vs Brentford, TSB: 0.1%
Welbeck was ruled out of first two and made his comeback in the third game coming off the bench playing 31 minutes. Brighton have looked to put the last season’s underperforming numbers behind and got wins in the first two games before losing to Everton in the third game. In the first two games, Brighton got their 4 goals from an xG of 3.9 and 6 big chances. This looks to be an improvement from the fact that last season, Brighton scored just 40 goals from an xG of 51.2 & 65 big chances- Making them the most underperforming team in terms of xG last season. Maybe this is the season, where they reap their xG rewards through some injury-free and improved finishing from Maupay and Welbeck.
Welbeck last season numbers– 0.76 big chances, 0.40 xG, 1.75 shots inside the box, 0.24 xA per 90 minutes played.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 4:
FPL Scouting Report ~ Demarai Gray | FPL GW4
New Players from Russian Premier League: An FPL Breakdown
FPL GW4 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
The Must Have FPL Players On Your GW4 Wildcard Team
FPL Gameweek 4 Analysis- Players To Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead Of FPL GW4
FPL GW4 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed In GW1-3
A Guide To FPL Team Structure | Wildcard FPL Gameweek 4
FPL GW4: Goalkeepers Analysis | Best Goalkeeping Option
FPL GW4 Wildcard – Best Combinations, Strategy Tips, And Team Reveal
FPL Gameweek 4 Fixture Swings: Teams and Players to Target and Avoid
Why You Don’t Need to Wildcard This Early Into The 2021/22 FPL Season
Bruno Fernandes Hold or Sell Going Into FPL GW4 | Stats Analysis
FPL GW3 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
Fixture Analysis For Optimal Wildcard Strategy | FPL 2021/22 Season
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4?
We’ll be covering fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 4, differential picks, Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek four, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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Srinivasan S
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