Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

We are reaching the final stretch of the season where Differential picks are more important than before if you are chasing to catch up ranks. All the double game weeks are confirmed. Therefore, we can plan our transfers from now until the end of the season. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW33 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW33 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Kai Havertz vs Aston Villa(H), £7.3m, TSB: 5.0%

Kai Havertz registered his 4th double digit haul in the last 7 GWs, as he registered a goal and an assist along with 3 bonus points. The German now has 5 goals and 5 assists since GW25. To say that he is bang on form would be an understatement.

Player	Points	Goal Involvements
Havertz	69	10
Palmer	60	9
Watkins	53	8

Since FPL GW25, Havertz is top for both points and goal involvements in FPL. Furthermore, only 4 players have had more big chances than the former Chelsea man in this period.

Arsenal are one of the teams to have a double GW coming up. But before their double, they take on a struggling Aston Villa side in FPL GW33. The Villains have conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches, which includes concession of 4 goals each against Spurs and Man City.

Team	Big Chances conceded	Rank
Luton	66	20th
West Ham	54	19th
Fulham	51	18th
Crystal Palace	51	18th
Aston Villa	50	16th

Unai Emery’s men have a very poor defensive record on the road. Only four teams have conceded more big chances away from home than the former Arsenal manager’s side. Furthermore, since GW22, only Luton(44) have conceded more big chances than the Midlands side(38), overall.

Aston Villa will be without Douglas Luiz for the game against the Gunners. The Brazilian will miss out due to suspension. Therefore, Arsenal have an even better chance of getting at Villa’s defence.

Further Read: Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Pascal Groß vs Burnley(A), £6.3m, TSB: 5.6%

If there is one word (well, it is gonna be three words) to describe Groß’ performance in FPL this season then it would be “Bonus Point Machine”. That is because the German has registered more bonus points(28) than any other player in FPL. He is only thirteenth in the list for overall points(138).

Brighton have had a full week of rest for the first time since a long while. Therefore, they will be fresh going into their FPL GW33 fixture against Burnley. Groß registered 7 points ( 1 assist and 2 bonus points) in the reverse fixture against the Clarets.

Vincent Kompany’s men will be without their key defender- Dara O-Shea, who will miss out due to suspension.

Meanwhile 12 out of 15 attacking returns for Groß this season have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Given the fact that three out of their next six fixtures are against such teams, we can expect more attacking returns from the German.

Key Stats of Brighton’s upcoming opponents

• Burnley(67) have conceded the second most number of goals this season.
• Aston Villa(38) have conceded the second most number of big chances since GW22.
• Man Utd(221) have conceded more shots than any other team since GW23, in spite of playing two games fewer than some of the other teams.
• Chelsea have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last seven matches in all competitions.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Chelsea(A), £5.8m, TSB: 1.0%

Although Everton have been hit with another 2 point deduction, they have had a couple of good things going their away. One, they finally ended their 13 game winless streak. Two, DCL getting back to goalscoring form.

Calvert- Lewin has scored in back to back league games for the first time since GW7. He now has 5 goals and 2 assists overall, his joint best in the last three seasons. DCL has had more big chances(16), more shots(60), and more shots in the box(52) than any of his teammates this season.

Five of Everton’s remaining seven games are against teams in the bottom half of the table. They are also one of the teams doubling in GW34. Seven of Everton’s nine wins this season have come against bottom half opposition. Five of DCL’s seven attacking returns have also come against such teams.

Forward	xGI
Darwin (Liverpool)	1.74
Cunha ( Wolves)	1.23
Haaland (Man City)	1.73
Wissa (Brentford)	0.72
McBurnie (Sheffield United)	0.91

Opposition forwards have done well in recent weeks against Pochettino’s men. DCL got an assist in the reverse fixture with an xGI of 0.63, his third best since GW16.

Further Read: Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Alexis Mac Allister vs Crystal Palace(H), £5.9m, TSB: 5.3%

If someone were to ask you the top 5 points scorers in recent weeks, who would you pick? And would you pick Alexis Mac Allister? Probably not. But the Argentinean international is the fifth highest points scorer(49) since FPL GW25, behind only Watkins(53), Foden(56), Palmer(60), and Havertz(69).

Man Allister’s stats in recent weeks are of complete contrast to the first 24 GWs of the season. The stats that stand out are shots in the box(1 vs 0) and Touches in the box(2.43 vs 0.28). These stats coincide with Endo’s return from the Asian games.

Given the fact that Jota is back in training, the attacking options apart from Salah are risky in terms of minutes. With Mac Allister, the minutes are fairly safe. He played 90 minutes in each of the three games last week.

Further Read: FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Pablo Sarabia vs Nottingham Forest(A), £4.7m, TSB: 1.0%

Pablo Sarabia scored a penalty in Wolves’ 2-1 defeat against West Ham last time out. The Spaniard has 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 7 GWs. With Cunha and potentially Hwang back from injury, the former PSG man’s chances of getting attacking returns increases.

Sarabia has 11 attacking returns( 4 goals, 7 assists) so far this season. One of the seven assists came in the reverse fixture against Nottingham Forest.

Wolves are again another team to have a double in GW34. Besides, four of their next seven fixtures have an FDR rating of 2.

Meanwhile, 8 of Sarabia’s attacking returns have come at home. After playing Forest, Gary O’Neil’s men have three back to back home matches, including a double. Given the fact that Sarabia is priced at a paltry £4.7, he is the best option for the fifth midfielder in the team.

Further Read: Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

FPL GW33 Ultra Differential Picks (<1% ownership)

Gustavo Hamer vs Brentford(A), £4.9m, TSB: 0.1%

Sheffield United have had a disappointing season so far. But, one shining light for the Blades has been Gus Hamer. The midfielder has registered 9 attacking returns (3 goals and 6 assists), the joint most among his teammates.

Chris Wilder’s men also have a double coming up in GW34. Hamer has registered an attacking return in each of the last 4 matches (1 goal and 3 assists). The Blades as a unit have scored 10 goals in the last 4 matches, their best goalscoring streak of the season.

Brentford have won only 3 matches since GW12. In this period, only Sheffield United(52) have conceded more goals than the Bees(44). The Bees are also winless in their last 9 matches.

Hamer is top for shots, big chances created, xPts, and points among Sheffield United players. His BPS tally is second only to their goalkeeper.

The Blades have found a little bit of form in front of goal. Hamer has played a key part in this run. They have a double GW coming up and also are one of the teams to have something to play for. Therefore, Hamer can be a decent shout as the fifth midfield option in your team.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW33

Confirmed FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW33 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW33 Transfer Tips- Players to Buy/Hold/Sell
FPL GW33 Scout Selection- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 33 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW33 Tips and Preview- All Dilemmas Answered
FPL GW33 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL GW33 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Link to all our FPL GW33 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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