Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The final international break of the season is done and dusted. FPL kept us occupied by launching the new game- the Fantasy Challenge. Meanwhile, the Gameweek 34 fixtures were announced. The strategy for the rest of the season is more or less set for most FPL managers. We have come up with suggestions bearing in mind the most optimal tactic to use from now until the end of the campaign. In this article, we discuss our Top Differential Picks for FPL GW30 and beyond based on Stats and Upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW30 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Luis Diaz vs Brighton(H), £7.5m, TSB: 9.5%

Luis Diaz has blanked in the last 2 games after returning in 5 successive games before that which has put him under the radar. Diaz has 3 goals, and 3 assists from the last 5 games before these 2 matches. Even in the last 2 games his underlying numbers have been good and was unlucky not to return- 8 Shots, 4 Chances created, and 1.3 xGI.

Key Stats- Luis Diaz:

• Only Haaland(28) and Muniz(28) have more shots inside the box than Luis Diaz(25) in the league since GW22
• Only Haaland(6.3) and Watkins(5.18) have a better nPxG than Luis Diaz(4.67) in the league since GW22.

Luiz Diaz- Attack Rank among Midfielders since GW22:

• Shots- 2nd
• Shots inside the Box- 1st
• Big Chances- 1st
• xG- 1st

These numbers are extraordinary considering Luis Diaz is also not on penalties.

With the Double Gameweek 34 announced and the fixtures looking good for Liverpool, Luis Diaz is certainly a good Differential pick to double up with Salah. After GW30, Liverpool have the Sheffield United(H) fixture which has Double-digit haul potential.

If you don’t have don’t plan to use Free Hit in GW34 and plan to Wildcard in GW35, Diaz is certainly an exciting punt!

Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections

Malo Gusto vs Burnley(H), £4.2m, TSB: 7.7%

Malo Gusto is certainly on the radar of FPL managers with a fixture vs Burnley(H) in GW30. To add to this Gusto is likely to have a Double Gameweek in GW36- Aston Villa(A), Spurs(H) and GW37- West Ham(H), Brighton(A). Even before these 2 DGWs, the fixtures look really good with games vs Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton. These are kind of matches where there is clean sheet potential and attack potential as well. Even though Chelsea have kept only two clean sheets since GW18, Chelsea’s underlying numbers are decent as Chelsea have conceded 2nd least Big Chances and have the 5th best xGC during this time.

Tip: If you plan to Free Hit in GW34 and Bench Boost in GW37, Gusto is certainly a great budget pick as Gusto has a tough game in GW34 vs Arsenal(A). The fixture before that look good and he has a DGW fixtures after that.

Key Stat: Since his return from injury in GW18, Gusto is Top for Big Chances created(7), 2nd best for xA(2.06) and Joint 2nd for Assists(3) among Defenders.

If you are thinking that, Reece James might be back to take back Gusto’s place, that might not happen anytime soon. Reece James is still continuing his Rehabilitation program as per Chelsea’s latest injury report(28th March). Even if James is back, his minutes will be carefully managed and Gusto can also slot in as an LB where both of them can play together.

Gusto also rotates well with other budget Defenders like Munoz, Brathwaite, and Van Hecke. Do check out-> Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Eberechi Eze vs Nottingham Forest(A), £6.0m, TSB: 3.0%

Eberechi Eze returned from his injury setback in GW27 and looked to be the main man under new manager Glasner. He was unlucky not to haul in their last game vs Luton and registered a whopping xGI of 1.11. Only Bruno Fernandes registered more xGI amongst midfielders in GW28!

Eze vs Luton Town(1st 90 mins since returning from injury) – 6 Shots, 3 shots inside the box, 1 big chance, 1 big chance created, and 4 chances created.

Eze is also on corners and in all likelihood he’s also the first-choice penalty taker for the Eagles which makes him an exciting prospect. Palace also have a double in GW34 coming up(vs Newcastle(H) and West Ham(H)) and if you’re not on a Free-hit GW34 strategy then you can certainly get the Palace talisman in early and plan ahead for FPL DGW34.

Eze and Palace have slightly tougher games in GW32 and GW33 against Man City and Liverpool. The Eagles however did score against both the teams in the 1st half of the season and even held on to a 2-2 draw vs Man City. If you have a strong bench you can bench him for those two games. But in case you need to start Eze in GW32 and GW33 it should not be a bad shout!

Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations

Rasmus Hojlund vs Brentford(A), £7.0m, TSB: 4.4%

Rasmus Hojlund has become an integral part of the Man United attack this season and is a great differential option to consider this week. He was missed heavily by Man United when he was injured but the Danish forward made his return to the playing 11 in Man United’s remarkable victory over Liverpool in the FA Cup just before the INTL break.

The Red Devils are up against Brentford who are struggling defensively with a lot of injuries, adding to their problems Sergio Reguilon is also suspended for Brentford after his red card in GW29.

Before his injury, Hojlund scored 7 goals and two assists in six PL games and was the 2nd highest-scoring player(48 pts) during the period(GW20-25) with only Saka outscoring him.

In the last six games, Brentford have conceded an xGC of 12.83 which is the 3rd worst in the league. They have also conceded 15 goals in the last six games which is also the 3rd worst in the League during the period. Hojlund also plays Sheffield United(H) in GW34 and he could easily outscore the double gameweek options!

Further Read: FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW30 Ultra Differential Picks (<1% ownership)

Pablo Sarabia vs Aston Villa(A), £4.7m, TSB: 0.5%

If you are looking for a budget midfielder in your 3-4-3(as an 8th attacker) with no plan to Free Hit in GW34, Sarabia should be in your plans. At just 4.7 million, Sarabia is an interesting enabler and Differential who can help you get the Premium players you want. The fixtures in the short-term look good along with a confirmed Double Gameweek in GW34 for Wolves.

Key Stat- Sarabia

0.80, 0.43, 0.25, 0.44, 0.29, 0.42, 0.24, 0.83, 0.30, 0.37, 0.51, 0.67, 0.35, 0.04- These are xGI numbers of Sarabia in every game since GW15. He has been consistently averaging 0.5 xGI per game during this run. These numbers are too good for your 4.7 million midfielder.

Top Midfielders less than 8 million for Chances created/90 this season:

• Gross- 3.13
• Sarabia- 2.89
• Andreas- 2.76
• Maddison- 2.69

Villa defensive woes: Aston Villa have conceded 48 Big chances since GW13 averaging 2.82 Big chances conceded/game. Only Luton and Brentford have conceded more Big chances than Villa during this time.

Sarabia is also likely to be on penalties for Wolves as highlighted by FPL BlackWolf (Wolves fan) in this thread about Wolves penalty takers.

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

Daniel Munoz vs Nottingham Forest(A), £4.5m, TSB: 0.1%

Daniel Munoz, Crystal Palace’s January signing has settled in nicely for the Eagles and has been a standout performer. Crystal Palace play in an attacking 3-4-3 formation under new manager Oliver Glasner. Munoz operates as the RWB and occupies attacking positions on the pitch which can be seen from his heatmap below.

Munoz also scored a sensational goal for Colombia during the INTL break which shows his attacking threat.

In GW28, Munoz picked up his first PL assist and registered an xGI of 0.52 vs Luton Town. Since his debut in GW23, he has registered 13 touches in the box, 3 shots in the box, and 7 chances created.

In GW30, Palace will play Nottingham Forest who have conceded more chances on their left and central zones and this is where Munoz operates giving him a good matchup.

Crystal Palace also double in GW34 playing Newcastle United(H) and West Ham(H) which makes him a good option in the longer run. Munoz also rotates well with Gusto and Ait Nouri and you can go for any of these two pairs based on your chip strategy(Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Defenders Rotation Combinations)

All three are attacking fullbacks which makes them exciting options at their price point!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
FPL GW30 Tips and Preview- Wildcard, Salah situation and more
FPL GW30 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW30 Wildcard- Best Drafts With DGW Planning & Projections
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Best FPL GW30 Defenders & Goalkeepers Rotation Combinations
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 31 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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